Evaluating a pitcher’s long-term fantasy value is incredibly important. Some pitchers are easy to decipher. Other pitchers are a little bit more complicated. There are two techniques that I have found to be useful when evaluating a pitcher. The first is comparing their current year pitch data to previous years. If a pitcher has been good for several seasons and is suddenly struggling, has there been an obvious change in their stuff? The second is finding a path to success. If a pitcher is experiencing a breakout, can I connect this breakout to a direct change they made? Similarly, if a pitcher is struggling, can I pinpoint an area that can help alleviate some of these issues. In the article below, I dive into two of the more complicated pitchers to figure out this season and decide whether I am buying in or selling out on their stock for 2022!
Complicated Pitcher 1: Jose Berrios
Jose Berrios has been one of the biggest disappointments in the 2022 season. Coming off the best statistical season of his career, expectations were high for Berrios in 2022. So far this season, Berrios has been dreadful posting a 5.44 ERA with the lowest strikeout rate of his career. The most frustrating part for fantasy managers has been the inconsistencies. In 17 starts this year, Berrios has posted eight quality starts. This is the same number of quality starts as guys like Zac Gallen, Logan Gilbert, Shohei Ohtani, and Julio Urias. More than Dylan Cease, Nestor Cortes, and Pablo Lopez. The 2022 season has not been all bad, so I am going to try to figure out if Berrios is somebody you should be counting on for the second half of 2022.
Technique 1: Looking at His Pitches
The first step that I like to use when analyzing a pitcher is to look at their pitches. You can see in the table below a comparison between Berrios’ 2021 statistics and 2022 statistics for each of his pitches.
| Pitch Type | 2021(Velocity / Spin) | 2022 Velocity / Spin |
|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 94.1 / 2231 | 93.8 / 2237 |
| Curveball | 82.9 / 2338 | 82.8 / 2281 |
| Sinker | 93.8 / 2135 | 93.5 / 2115 |
| Changeup | 84.8 / 1521 | 84.6 / 1523 |
As you can see from the table, there have been no significant changes to any of his pitches. The velocity and spin rates on all his pitches have stayed consistent with 2021. So now that we have ruled out any decline in his stuff, let’s dig a little bit deeper into his pitches. I mentioned earlier that Berrios’ strikeout rate has taken a steep decline this season. The image below from Baseball Savant shows his swing and miss percentage on his pitches from last year to this year.
These images tend to be a little bit misleading and overemphasize a decline. The image shows that all four of Berrios’ pitches have seen a decline in whiff rate. While this is true, the only pitch that has seen a decrease of over 5% is the four-seam fastball. This is causing most of the problems for Berrios.
Last season, Berrios was effective in keeping hitters off balance. To start batters off, Berrios relied on his curveball almost as much as his four-seamer. The results were batters hit just .231 off the four-seamer with a whiff rate over 25 percent on 0-0 counts.
This season, Berrios has completely changed his strategy. Combined, his four-seam and sinker usage rate has increased by 6.5% on the first pitch, while his curve and changeup percentages have both decreased. Hitters have recognized this and are attacking Berrios early in the count. The first pitch whiff rate on the four-seamer has dropped down below 12% this year and opposing batters are hitting .435 off the pitch. Sure, Berrios has increased his first pitch strike percentage, but the results have been hitters teeing off and hitting his fastball.
Technique 2: Can the Struggles End?
If you follow me at all on Twitter, you are aware that I have been tweeting about Berrios for the past couple of weeks. The four-seam fastball is Berrios’ worst pitch. The pitch had a run value of 5 (positive is bad for pitchers) last season and is at 13 this year. According to Statcast, this ranks as the fifth-worst four-seamer in baseball. Despite this, Berrios has increased his fastball usage from 26.7% last year to 33.3% this year. I mentioned earlier that Berrios has had several starts in which he has been excellent. The encouraging part of this is that there is a common denominator for every good Berrios start. He threw his curveball as his most used pitch.
- Starts when the curveball is Berrios most used pitch:
- 6GS 40IP 2.03ERA 8.78K/9 1.80BB/9
- All other starts:
- 11GS 49.1IP 8.21ERA 6.20K/9 3.10BB/9
The answer seems obvious. Berrios needs to ditch his four-seam fastball and rely on the curveball. The curveball has always been his best strikeout pitch and pairs nicely with his sinker. Berrios should turn to both of those pitches instead of relying on the four-seam fastball as much as he does.
Should You Buy In?
I am buying Berrios for the second half of 2022. In each of Berrios’ last two starts, he has used the curveball as his most used pitch. In fact, in five of his last seven starts, Berrios has used the curveball more frequently than any of his other pitches. A curveball is a pitch that the pitcher needs to have a feel for each game. If Berrios does not have the feel on the curveball there is a chance that there will be a few games he relies more on the fastball. However, if Berrios continues to make it a point to throw his curveball more, hitters are going to have to respect that. This should help improve the results of his fastball. Although the first half has been disappointing, I am in on Berrios for the second half of 2022!
Complicated Pitcher 2: Triston McKenzie
Triston McKenzie might be even more complicated than Berrios. Among the 62 qualified starters in baseball, McKenzie has the 8th worst FIP, 10th worst xFIP, and the 16th worst xERA. Despite these poor Sabermetric statistics, McKenzie has a respectable 3.47 ERA and the 11th lowest WHIP in baseball at 1.01. Is the answer as simple as McKenzie has just gotten lucky up to this point in the season? Luck might be part of it, but there is more to decipher with this 24-year-old former top prospect. I will use the two techniques mentioned in the opening to figure out what you should be doing with Triston McKenzie.
Technique 1: Looking at His Pitches
Although I am going to use the same steps, evaluating McKenzie is different from evaluating Berrios. Berrios is struggling this season, so we are looking for potential declines in his stuff. McKenzie has been having a nice year so far for Cleveland. For McKenzie, I am looking to see if his stuff has improved at all.
| Pitch Type | 2021(Velocity/Spin) | 2022 Velocity/Spin |
|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 92.1 / 2256 | 92.3 / 2290 |
| Curveball | 79.3 / 2147 | 79.5 / 2165 |
| Slider | 86.4 / 2162 | 87.5 / 2188 |
As you can see in the table above, there has not been any change in any of McKenzie’s stuff. His pitches have remained consistent in velocity and spin rates. Next, I wanted to look at whiff rates. Despite experiencing more success in 2022, McKenzie has seen his whiff percentage drop. While the fastball and curveball have dropped by relatively insignificant margins, the slider has seen a massive decline. In 2021, McKenzie got whiffs on 44.2% of his sliders. This season, that rate is down to 29.8. Digging even deeper into his slider McKenzie’s slider has lost significant vertical movement in 2022. Last season the pitch had 31.4 inches of vertical drop. This helped induce batters to swing over top of it allowing the pitch to generate swings and misses along with a .289 slugging percentage against.
This has not been the case in 2022. Without the vertical movement, the slider is hanging up over the zone. Opposing hitters already have five home runs off the slider this season. This is more than they had during all of 2021. What makes this most concerning is that McKenzie is a three-pitch pitcher. He has completely cut out the changeup this season. If the slider continues to struggle, McKenzie essentially will become a two-pitch pitcher. McKenzie needs to figure out how to fix his slider struggles soon.
Technique 2: Is there a Reason for his Success?
After evaluating McKenzie’s stuff and finding more concerns than bright spots, can we find a direct reason McKenzie has found more success this season? The answer is his control. Just before the season started, I released a “My Guys” article for Fantrax. McKenzie was one of the two pitchers that I listed. The biggest issue with McKenzie was his inability to limit walks from the stretch. During 2021, McKenzie would lose the ability to find the strike zone when runners got on. I was confident that the adjustments he made in AAA last season were going to stick in 2022. So far, I have been right about this. McKenzie has reduced his BB/9 from 4.35 last season to 2.60 this year. The improvements from the stretch have been substantial.
- 2021 statistics from the stretch:
- 7.8K/9 6.3BB/9 2.1HR/9 .216BAA
- 2022 statistics from the stretch:
- 7.6K/9 0.5BB/9 1.0HR/9 .231BAA
McKenzie’s ability to limit walks has helped keep his WHIP down and led to his success in 2022. The other two factors helping McKenzie this season have been a LOB% of 82.2% and a BABIP of .217. The BABIP is entirely luck-based. McKenzie is not limiting hard contact this season. The LOB% can be partially attributed to luck. The other part of that are the improvements that McKenzie has made from the stretch. McKenzie’s ability to dominate from the stretch helps prevent runners from advancing and scoring once they are on.
Should You Sell McKenzie?
I am torn on this one. McKenzie is 24 years old and has shown the ability to dominate at times. He has proven that he can adjust his mechanics and has improved his control. I recommend selling McKenzie for 2022 and holding him in keeper/dynasty leagues based on my concerns over his slider. Without a fourth pitch, McKenzie is forced to rely on his slider to get batters out. The vertical movement has mysteriously disappeared from this pitch and is causing McKenzie to struggle at times. He will likely have to work on this pitch during the off-season to regain his movement. I am skeptical he will be able to do so in 2022 and will continue to surrender home runs off it. With that being said, if McKenzie can regain his vertical movement and combine it with his refined control, McKenzie has tremendous upside.