Somethingsomething about Valentine’s Day, blahblahblah. Anyway, we follow up a tiny 4-game slate, with a hefty nine game slate. I can’t wait for tip! I believe this is our first Sunday, post-Super Bowl, so we can finally see NBA DFS supplant NFL DFS interest for the remainder of the year. LONG LIVE THE SPORT OF KINGS!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 14
Timberwolves vs. Raptors (-8); Total 229.5
KAT’s return has already made the T-Wolves a better team. So much better, that they’ve gone from 30th in net rating, to 29th! That’s great, but without D’Angelo Russell, they’re not going to be able to take down the Raptors who are 9th in net rating. I am counting on seeing a blowout in favor of Toronto.
DFS Targets: I’m avoiding this game for DFS purposes. We have a large slate, so we don’t need to chase the risk of potential blowout games. Let’s look elsewhere.
Spurs (-4) vs. Hornets; Total 227
We should have a fun one here, as these two teams are well matched. Charlotte is middle of the road in net rating at 15th ranked vs. the 19th ranked Spurs. I think the difference maker in this matchup is going to be the Spurs defense. They have the 9th ranked defense in the league, and the Hornets don’t have the offense or pace to overpower that. I like the Spurs, who are going to be able to hit their stride with Derrick White back in the mix.
DFS Targets: On the Spurs I’d target the entire starting five, sans Poetl. I’m avoiding everybody on the Hornets except for LaMelo, with a tough defensive matchup on deck. LaMelo does everything, and really makes for a safe floor.
Pelicans (-4.5) vs. Pistons; Total 221.5
The rare occasion when I’m not calling for a blowout of the Pistons. 18th vs. 24th in net ratings, respectively. Neither team is good defensively, so I think whoever controls the pace will win this game. New Orleans is 21st in pace, to Detroit’s 25th, so I lean to the Pelicans in this one.
DFS Targets: This game could be a darling on the night, in terms of NBA DFS targets. With the Pelicans I like: the entire starting five. With the Pistons, I’d target: Wright, Grant, and Griffin. Don’t go chasing Saddiq Bey shares. He had a great night the other night, but that’s all that it was.
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks (-5); Total 235.5
This is likely to be the highest total of the night. We’re dealing with two top ten offenses, and no defense in sight. Don’t be scared to work a few stacks of this game in a few of your lineups. It’ll pay off!
DFS Targets: Add these players to your player pool for lineups: Dame, Gary Trent Jr. Robert Covington, Enes Kanter, Carmelo Anthony, Luka Doncic, Kristaps, and Josh Richardson. And don’t look back!
Bucks (-11.5) vs. Thunder; Total 228.5
Bucks are the 2nd best team in net rating and the Thunder are 26th. Thunder don’t have a chance. Carry on.
DFS Targets: I’m avoiding everyone in this game.
Magic vs. Suns (-10); Total 213
Speaking of teams that don’t have a chance: The Orlando Magic…we’re dealing with a team that just beat the 76ers yesterday. The Suns are firing on all cylinders, and the 20th ranked defense in the league isn’t going to put a stop to that.
DFS Targets: I like the Suns in a blowout, but I’d be naive not to expect a little slow start on the second leg of a back-to-back game. For that reason, I’ll list some targets if you want the risk: Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross, CP3, Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, and Cameron Johnson.
Lakers (-3) vs. Nuggets; Total 217
This could very well be a Conference Finals matchup. The #3 team in net rating vs. the #5 team in net rating. Everybody is healthy. We should get a great game. Lakers win, but I don’t think it’ll be as close as people think. The Lakers have the first ranked defense in the league. That matters.
DFS Targets: If I’m taking a risk on anyone on the Nuggets, it’ll be Nikola Jokic. Most of my targets will be on the Lakers’ side in LeBron, A.D., KCP, Kuzma, and Harrell.
Grizzlies (-1) vs. Kings; Total 229.5
The Kings have the worst defense in the league. What more do we need to know? I’m rolling with the Grizzlies.
DFS Targets: Sacramento targets include: Tyrese Halliburton, Buddy Hield, Holmes, and Barnes. On the Grizzlies I like Morant, Anderson, Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen, and Jonas.
Cavaliers vs. Clippers (-11.5); Total 221
If you want to stay up late for this blowout, be my guest. You’re better than me!
DFS Targets: This could very well be a game in which starters only play three quarters. I’m avoiding this one.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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