A couple nights ago on TNT, Adam Silver was quoted saying that he’s never considered canceling or suspending the season amid COVID fears. I don’t know about you, but I’ve had plenty of lineup anxiety over game cancellations or COVID injuries. It was interesting to hear that they’ve expected all of this and they’re going to power through. Right or wrong, that’s great for NBA DFS. Let’s get into it!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 20
Warriors vs. Hornets
GSW has the 10th best net rating in the league, while the Hornets are 18th in the league. The Warriors aren’t winning games on the strength of their offense anymore, but rather their 5th-ranked defense. I don’t think Charlotte’s 17th-ranked offense can overcome that. Warriors win this one handily. I don’t know that GSW is rolling enough to blow a team out, however, so I think we can still target players from this game.
DFS Targets: GSW targets: Curry, Oubre, Wiggins, and Draymond (if he plays). He’s burned me the last few times out, but I’m STILL a huge “Damien Lee for value dart throw” guy. Hornets targets: LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Rozier, and Zeller.
Pacers vs. Rockets
The Rockets are going to be well-rested coming off the cancellation of their game yesterday due to the weather conditions. That’s not good news for the Pacers who are going to have to overcome the Rockets’ 4th-ranked defense, with their 14th-ranked offense. The Pacers have a 10th-ranked defense, and I believe the Rockets will struggle with their 26th-ranked offense. The Rockets also seem to face constant injuries. I like the Pacers to pull this one out.
DFS Targets: Pacers targets: Brogdon, Sabonis, Lamb, and McConnell. Rockets targets: Wall, Oladipo, and Tate.
Heat vs. Lakers
LeBron gets to face-off against the organization that turned him into the unstoppable KING he is today. I don’t believe he’ll break a sweat. The Lakers are 4th in the league in net rating, while the Heat are way down to 23rd. Jimmy Butler looks like he’s heating up, but it’ll be tough to do that against the league’s top-rated defense. I don’t think LA blows the Heat out, but they’re likely to win handily.
DFS Targets: Miami targets: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kendrick Nunn (not a star, but he’s playing like one and at a cheap salary). Lakers targets: I like LeBron, Marc Gasol, Kyle Kuzma, and KCP for cheap.
Kings vs. Bulls
I wish the league would cancel this game. We have two teams in the bottom tercile of the league in net rating. They are 26th and 20th, respectively. The Kings, however, are last in defensive rating, which is why I’m happily targeting Bulls players. This could very well end up being the highest total on the night.
DFS Targets: Chicago targets: Zach LaVine, Coby White, Temple, Williams, and Carter Jr. The whole starting five. Denzel Valentine is interesting from a value perspective. Sacramento targets: I like Fox, Bagley, and Halliburton.
Suns vs. Grizzlies
We’re dealing with a Suns team that is 100% a contender to represent the West. I don’t actually think they will, but the point is that the Grizzlies are not even in that conversation. The Suns are 7th-ranked in net rating, while the Grizz are 18th. I think we’re in line for a blowout in the Suns’ favor, but I’m not confident on that call, so let’s target both sides.
DFS Targets: Suns targets: CP3, Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, and Cam Johnson for almost minimum pricing. Grizzlies targets: Take a look at Morant, Brooks, and Jonas. I’d leave it at that.
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers
This is the game. The one we’ve all been waiting for. The Wizards have won three straight and it’s clear they are the best team in the NBA. You can’t tell me different. I’ve been trying to tell everyone not to panic. The stats tell a different story, however. Wizards are 25th in net rating, while the Blazers are 13th. You should probably roll with them. You’ll be wrong, but process over emotion.
DFS Targets: Wiz targets: Beal, Russ, Bertans (he’s heating up!), and Neto for value. Blazers targets: Dame, Covington, Kanter, DJJ, and Gary Trent Jr. I don’t anticipate a lot of defense being played, so I wouldn’t shy away from stacking this game.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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