It’s the end of the week, so let’s make sure we close it out with a bang! We’ve got a nice six game main slate on tap for NBA DFS tonight. With a slate this size, we’ll be able to fade bad matchups and stack good ones. Let’s not waste any more time and get into it!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
NBA DFS Targets and Preview for March 6
Pacers (22-43) vs. Wizards (28-34)
Offensive Rating: 17th vs. 21st in the league
Defensive Rating: 26th vs. 22nd in the league
Net Rating: 21st vs. 23rd in the league
Pace: 20th vs. 23rd in the league
Predicted Outcome: As a Washington fan, I’ve got to be honest: I need to find any little reason to get excited about this team. The reason to get excited about the Wiz tonight is the fact that Kristaps Porzingis will be making his debut. I don’t think it’ll be enough, however, as I think the shifting lineups and new roles will prevent the Wizards from getting into a groove. I expect the Pacers to win this one.
DFS Targets: Kristaps is likely to be on a minutes restriction, and also be victim to strange substitution schedules, preventing him from getting a rhythm (e.g. Klay Thompson). I’ll fade him tonight. The only Wizard you can safely target is Kyle Kuzma. On the Pacers, I like Haliburton, Brogdon (if he plays), and Hield.
Grizzlies (43-21) vs. Rockets (15-48)
Offensive Rating: 4th vs. 27th in the league
Defensive Rating: 9th vs. 30th in the league
Net Rating: 6th vs. 30th in the league
Pace: 8th vs. 1st in the league
Predicted Outcome: I didn’t get this far in life expecting the Rockets to win. I won’t start now.
DFS Targets: On the Rockets, I’d target Dennis the Menace if he plays, but if he doesn’t, taking a shot on Kevin Porter Jr. can absolutely pay off. However, I put him in my lineup the other day, and he completely flopped. He’s a volatile fantasy player, but you can’t base all of your decisions on past performance. You must project. This could be a good matchup for him. In a rare pace up matchup for the Grizzlies, I like Morant (obviously), Bane, JJJ, and Brandon Clarke (but only if Kyle Anderson misses the game).
Jazz (39-23) vs. Thunder (20-43)
Offensive Rating: 1st vs. 30th in the league
Defensive Rating: 13th vs. 8th in the league
Net Rating: 3rd vs. 27th in the league
Pace: 21st vs. 12th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Much like the game above, there’s a reason the thunder are a bottom-five team in the league. I don’t anticipate they’ll be able to overcome those shortcomings to beat the third-best team in the league. I don’t care if they’re at home. Jazz win.
DFS Targets: The blowout potential in this one is major, and both teams don’t play with a lot of pace, so I’m not particularly inclined to roster anyone from this game. If you want to take the risk, Shai is the only restorable play on the Thunder, while the Jazz’ usage rates fall on Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. I wouldn’t stray too far from those three, if I were you.
Raptors (34-29) vs. Cavaliers (36-27)
Offensive Rating: 16th vs. 20th in the league
Defensive Rating: 14th vs. 4th in the league
Net Rating: 14th vs. 8th in the league
Pace: 26th vs. 25th in the league
Predicted Outcome: This could be a fun one. Two teams in the top half of the league. Two teams that can make the playoffs in the East. The deciding factor in this one, for me, is that both teams aren’t offensively-inclined, and the Cavs have the fourth-best defense in the league. I anticipate the Raptors are going to have a tough time scoring, leading to the Cavs to get the home win.
DFS Targets: FVV is the only Raptor I’d trust to hit his value, against a top-five defense, with two bigs that can neutralize Pascal Siakam (and/or get him tired/in foul trouble). On the Cavs, Garland has been on a roll since he got back from injury. Mobley and Allen are dependable fantasy assets as you can always expect 30+ from them nightly.
Pelicans (27-36) vs. Nuggets (37-26)
Offensive Rating: 19th vs. 9th in the league
Defensive Rating: 16th vs. 10th in the league
Net Rating: 19th vs. 10th in the league
Pace: 22nd vs. 19th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Let the net ratings guide you in this matchup. The Nuggets are the better team. If Jokic doesn’t play, that would complicate things, but DMC getting 30 points without starter’s minutes lets me know that the Nuggets are in good hands even if Jokic misses. Denver should win this one at home.
DFS Targets: DeMarcus Cousins is a must-play whether he starts or not. If he starts, he’s a lock to be in the optimal lineup at his pricing. If he doesn’t start, he’ll still hit value, and has upside. Will Barton is a volatile fantasy player, but he’s good for a 30 point game on any night. I like him in this matchup with an average defense. Jokic can be counted on if he plays (but he’s expensive). On the Pels, you can roll with CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram. I’ll also be interested in Jonas, in what will likely be a slow-paced, primarily half court offense-based game.
Knicks (25-38) vs. Clippers (34-31)
Offensive Rating: 25th vs. 26th in the league
Defensive Rating: 17th vs. 7th in the league
Net Rating: 22nd vs. 18th in the league
Pace: 29th vs. 14th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Knicks have an offense that’s just as bad as the Clippers, but the Clippers are playing great defense. Further, the Knicks are near dead last in pace of play. This team is not built to come from behind, and it based on the past few weeks, they aren’t built to hold a lead either. So what are they built for? Losing. Clippers win this one at home.
DFS Targets: RJ Barrett has solidified himself as the go-to scorer on this team, so you can count on him to hit his value. Julius Randle doesn’t want to give up the usage rate leading role he had last year, so you can also count on him to be aggressive, but this is a tough defense to expect him to return value against. If you play Randle, he’ll likely be low-owned, so you have an edge against those that faded him. Mann and Reggie Jackson will be in a majority of my lineups.
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