Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the hottest topic coming into the fantasy baseball season. He was going as early as the third round in some drafts and had an ADP in the mid 40’s coming into the year. Vlad Jr. was a very boom or bust pick coming into this season and, unfortunately, it’s been bust to this point.
How could this be? He was supposed to be a “can’t miss” prospect. He has completely dominated the minors at every level and has proven he’s too good for the minors.
It’s no secret he’s struggling. As far as long term outlook goes, I don’t have any concerns. It is way too early to even think like that, but it is time to reconsider his value as well as what we should expect for the remainder of the 2019 fantasy baseball season. In order to do that, I am going to dive in and see if we can find out what’s going on.
Vlad Jr. and His Current Production
It is fair to say Vlad Jr. has been a disappointment up to this point in the season. He has 17 runs, 7 home runs, 19 RBI and sports a triple slash of .249/.319/.426. Good news is he is still walking at a slightly above average clip with a walk rate of 9.0%. His strikeout rate is actually decent all things considered at 18.6% with league average sitting at 21.5%.
If you take a look at his plate discipline, he is just about on par league average in every metric. At the very least, it suggests he’s doesn’t really have any holes in his plate approach. Which is basically what everyone said about him prior to the call-up.
So we have is a player who’s doing well in all plate discipline metrics and has an above average walk and K rate. So what’s the problem? Why is he struggling? Let’s continue to look and see what we can dig up.
Batted Ball Data
Taking a look at his previous data, a few things stand out. He has an above average GB% of 47.4%. Ground balls have always been a part of his game and he’s been able to succeed in the minors in spite of it. However, this isn’t the minor leagues and he’s not succeeding with such a high rate at the moment. Another noticeable change is his lack of pull%. His pull% is low compared to his minor league track record currently at only 38.5%. The pull rate likely, in part, allowed the ground ball rate to be overlooked as an issue in the minors. Unfortunately now with the lack of fly balls, line drives and the lack of pulling the ball it’s not a good mix and could be part of why he’s struggling to produce.
As you can see, He is only hitting .219 on ground balls to this point. However, he is still succeeding when the ball is put into the air with a BA on FB at .283 and a BA on LD of .625. If this trend holds true he may be in for a bit of disappointing season. I wish this was all that was I found to be concerning, but wait, there’s more.
Trouble With The Curve
As is the case with most rookies, Vlad Jr. is having issues with hitting big league breaking pitches and teams are taking notice. Take a look for yourself.
As you can see, Vlad Jr. is hitting a putrid .153 on sliders and if that isn’t bad enough he doesn’t even have a batting average vs. curveballs. Just so we are clear, he has no hits against a curveball on the year. To add insult to injury, he’s struggling vs. sinkers, hitting .207 vs sinker on the season so far. Furthermore, It appears teams have found a weakness and are currently exploiting it.
Over the last month and a half, Vlad Jr. has seen an increase in breaking pitches and off-speed pitches with the decrease coming in hard pitches he is seeing. This is obviously by design and not a surprise due to the success he is having vs. hard pitches and the apparent struggles vs off-speed and breaking pitches.
Lastly, I will point out where pitchers are attacking Vlad Jr. with success. With the fly ball revolution in full swing, most players aren’t attacked low in the zone. This isn’t the case for Vlad. You can see from the charts how they correlate.
He sees the majority of his pitches low and inside the zone. His highest whiff% zones on off-speed and breaking pitches are also low and inside. So with that said, can you guess where pitchers are focusing their off-speed and breaking pitches? I’ll give you one guess. (Low and inside of course). <Taking it just a small step further, the struggles are further backed by the batting averages in these zones vs off-speed and breaking pitches.
Now that we have covered where he’s coming up short and where he is struggling, it is time to discuss the positives. Yes, in fact there are some positive takeaways to be had so let’s get to it.
Statcast Data
Now there are some encouraging signs after all. The statcast data for Vlad Jr. is very impressive in comparison to what he’s produced so far. If these numbers were his actual stats, he would be further in line with the expectations he has attached to him.
His xBA of .277 is 28 points higher than his actual BA of .249. His xSLG of .476 is 50 points higher than his actual SLG of .426. You’ll continue to see this trend in the wOBA vs xWOBA. The wOBA is sitting at .323 with an xwOBA of .357. We are seeing clearly he’s underperforming according to the metrics. He has a hard hit rate in the 74th percentile at 43.7% which is 9.4% above league average. So what’s the issue? I’d say part of his issue is the launch angle only sitting at 7.5 degrees which plays a part into Vlad Jr. hitting too many ground balls. If he would elevate the ball a bit more and get his FB% and LD% up, we’d likely see an uptick in the batting average overall. This actually would line up with the aforementioned success with the BA on LD and FB.
Rest Of Season Outlook for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
It is on Vlad to adjust to how pitchers are coming at him. There is positive regression suggested in the metrics which is great. He has a learning curve to go through as most rookie hitters typically do and I believe his long term outlook is still great and I have zero long term concern. With that said, I had my reservations coming into the year about his price and chance for a slow start. I do believe his best days are ahead. The reason I believe that is due to the underlying statcast data and overall solid plate approach he is flashing even with a slow start.
I believe Vlad Jr. is a good buy low candidate and a better second half is in the cards. With that said, you should also temper your expectations for the 2019 season. I would not pay top dollar if you’re buying low in redraft leagues. I’d offer roughly a top 100 value player or a player performing very well that fits a sell high candidate like an Eduardo Escobar if you could make it happen. Regardless how you decide to handle your Vlad Jr. redraft shares, good luck to you the rest of the way.
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He should have been in Buffalo for at least half of the season if not a full season. Bat ready yes but it’s about getting at bats. He doesn’t have many minor league at bats. Trying to get the kids up to fast is dumb. And all of those new stats are useless. Just use obp and slg.
To ignore advanced metrics isn’t wise in my opinion. The metrics are a great tool to utilize when looking for reasoning or finding struggles and to see if positive or negative regression is due. I don’t swear by them but there is a happy balance with the advanced metrics and actual production. I find great success with said balance but you gotta do what works best for you of course.
I do agree with you and think some triple A time would’ve been good for him.
Very interesting data here. I have been wondering what has been going on with JR. This type of insight is very valuable. Great first article. I look forward to more of your work.
Thank you for the support!