We did it! We made it through the mucky, murky, slimy cesspool that is catchers this year. As we move on to first base, unfortunately, it’s not as exciting as one might expect. The position as a whole has tumbled, not unlike myself trying to put on pants after a few too many margaritas. Even though the position, in general, has a lot of similar skill sets, there are a few ADP’s that I feel pretty strongly about.
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First Base Dudes and Don’ts
The Dude – Jake Bauers
I won’t make any “24” jokes, so don’t worry. I never saw the show. I’m sure it was good. Do you know what is really good, though? Getting steals from your first baseman! I’m pretty concerned that the sun is setting on the days of Paul Goldschmidt swiping double-digit bases. That makes Jake Bauers one of the few first base options who can provide you with 15-plus steal potential.
Bauers debuted last year with the Rays, and overall it was underwhelming. He hit an awful .201 over 388 trips to the dish, but did hit 11 home runs and steal six bags. The Rays hated him so much they sent him to Cleveland, where LeBron doesn’t even live anymore, apparently. I don’t watch much NBA these days. The fact that Tampa was ready to deal him so willingly does bother me, but on the bright side, now Bauers doesn’t have to worry about being platooned as much. He should get all the playing time he could ask for in a suddenly indigent Indians lineup.
That said, he probably should be platooned. He posted an abysmal .595 OPS against lefties. Ouch. Pitchers figured out how to attack him as well, as his strikeout rate ballooned to 30 percent over the second half of the season. With an offseason to make his own adjustments and address possible holes in his swing, I expect better things in 2019. He also draws a lot of walks, so if you’re in an OBP format, he’s that much safer. He’s still just 23 and will get to face a lot of bad pitching in the AL Central to help boost his production.
Perfect. Now wrap this up on a high note, Dokken…come up with a clever catchphrase. “Don’t be the one who cowers, draft Jake Bauers!” Nope, that ain’t it. “April flowers bring Jake Bauers!” Woof. No. “Take daily showers and draft Jake Bauers!” Nailed it.
Projection: 625 Plate Appearances, 22 HR, 70 R, 80 RBI, 15 SB, .250 AVG
The Don’t – Luke Voit
Yankees fans probably think I have it out for their first basemen. Last year my Don’t was Greg Bird and this year it’s his usurper Luke Voit. Frankly, I had expected the Yankees to have traded for a more stable veteran by this point in the offseason. They haven’t, of course, and it looks as though they really are going to stick with Voit at first base. Ironically, it’s Greg Bird who provides the most competition to Voit for at-bats heading into camp.
Voit is nearly 29, a career minor leaguer who came over from the Cardinals last year. The surface numbers are astounding; over 161 plate appearances he hit 15 home runs with a .322/.398/.671 slash line. Those numbers are awfully tantalizing. However, the underlying metrics tell another tale. A 40.5% HR/FB rate is juuuuuust a little inflated, considering the league average is 12.7%. His 15.2% swinging strike rate, 68.9% contact rate, and subsequent 26.7% K% point towards more of a .250 hitter than a .322-hitting batting average maven. Most of his damage (10 home runs) came in September, where the pitching pool is heavily watered down (can one water down a pool? Whatever) with call-ups.
This is not to say that Luke Voit will be a bad player. He clearly has power, and his contact isn’t quite Chris Davis-bad. However, he’s the 12th first baseman off the board at ADP 180. For a player who projects as more of a deep league corner infield type, that’s just too rich for my blood. I really do worry that even if he beats out Greg Bird for the job to begin the season, the Yankees trade for a first base upgrade around the trade deadline. I’d much rather wait 38 picks and take Justin Smoak, who offers much more job security and floor.
Projection: 450 Plate Appearances, 18 HR, 50 R, 60 RBI, .250 AVG
The Deep League Dude – Ryan O’Hearn
I just ragged on a guy who put up a 40.5% HR/FB rate, so why not pump up a guy who also hit over his head in 2018? No, stop painting your “Dokken is a hypocrite” sign! There’s a difference between Luke Voit and Ryan O’Hearn: price.
Whereas you’re drafting Voit to be your starting first baseman in standard 12-team mixed leagues, O’Hearn is going off draft boards as the 24th first baseman. That’s barely a corner infielder in a 15-team mixer, with an ADP of 315. He, like Voit, hit for more power than you can realistically expect moving forward last season. His HR/FB was high, although not egregiously so for a power bat, at 25%. Given his 70.6% contact rate and 26.5% K%, he is more likely to hit .240 than .262 as he did in 2018. He’s a very patient hitter who will take his walks though, so that helps in OBP leagues.
There are several reasons, of course, that he’s buried in ADP. First – the Royals are going to be bad this year. Like, really bad. Maybe not Orioles bad, but…bad. That’s going to limit his R+RBI production. Second – he can’t hit lefties. He only had 37 at-bats against southpaws in 2018, which is hardly a sample size worth worrying about normally, but four hits in 37 at-bats with a 39% K% is rough. It’s more of a prime Lucas Duda profile, but that’s useful at this price.
Projection: 550 Plate Appearances, 25 HR, 65 R, 75 RBI, .245 AVG
Are you down with Dokken’s Dudes and Don’ts? For more great rankings, strategy, and analysis check out the 2019 FantraxHQ Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. We’ll be adding more content from now right up until Opening Day!
Nathan Dokken is a member of the FSWA and has been featured on numerous radio shows, podcasts, and magazines. He is the host of the Nasty Cast and Fantrax Dynasty Baseball podcasts, and his written work can be found at Razzball and Fantrax HQ. He is on Twitter @NathanDokken.
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