With each new fantasy baseball season, the spotlight shines on a new group of emerging prospects whose early success spurs a vision of their potential greatness. The prior year’s darling prospects still generate some excitement but past prospect class players, now deemed old due to prospect fatigue, seemingly create more anxiety than anticipation for their dynasty owners. Often, the cause for concern is justifiable as once heralded prospects have faltered to varying extents in their progression in the minor leagues. Other times, these players have just taken a bit more time to gel. We’ve come to label these types of players as post-hype prospects.
The prospect ‘bust’ reality is all too common, but it often gets misapplied to former top prospects who lost their prospect shine due to setbacks in their progression that weren’t related to skill development. Each year many of those players reemerge to regain their lost hype, much like C.J. Abrams, Heston Kjerstad, and several others did last year. In this article, five former top prospects that have been devalued or seemingly forgotten are identified to help dynasty owners take advantage of a rare buying opportunity with little risk and a world of reward potential.
5 Post-hype Prospects Poised to Produce in 2024
1. Gavin Lux, SS, Dodgers
Nothing derails a prospect’s value more than blocked playing time and elongated absences due to injuries. Unfortunately for Gavin Lux, his dynasty stock has largely evaporated in the last few years due to both factors. A former top 5 consensus prospect in 2020, after dominating AAA ball the prior season, Lux looked ready to follow fellow Dodger SS Corey Seager’s path to the majors that included an All-Star selection and rookie of the year honors in his first year. However, Lux’s path to the majors was blocked by Seager.
As a result of the lack of playing time, Lux fell into a utility role that required learning multiple new infield and outfield positions. The inconsistent playing time resulted in, well, inconsistent results. In 2022, Lux finally found his way to 421 at-bats which resulted in an impressive .276 batting average and .346 on-base percentage. While known as a consistent hitter in the minors, the only question that lingered around his potential was his ability to develop power. While he only hit 6 HRs in the limited at-bats that season, he found his way to a .399 slugging percentage through 20 doubles and 7 triples which showed the promise for power gains to come.
Lux had carried the momentum into early 2023 spring training until he tripped on the base paths, resulting in a devasting season-ending surgery. With Corey Seager’s departure in free agency that offseason, before his injury, the Dodgers felt confident Lux was ready to serve as a viable replacement as the primary SS in 2023. Now, heading into the 2024 season, the Dodgers front office is demonstrating the same belief in Lux to live up to his potential by saving his roster spot all last year and this offseason.
Lux likely won’t ever be the perennial MVP candidate that Seager has become, but with playing time secured in a powerful lineup, he can finally produce meaningful results for those dynasty managers who haven’t forgotten about him. A likely late-round pick in most leagues, Lux may be a rare gem that could pay huge returns immediately. Co-incidentally, very similar to how Corey Seager delivered for his dynasty believers after returning from his prolonged injury absences.
2. Max Meyer, SP, Marlins
No top-end starting pitcher from the 2021 class of top 100 prospects has a more important year ahead of them than Max Meyer. As an ultra-dominant collegiate pitcher during his time at the University of Minnesota, Meyer was selected third overall by the Marlins in the 2020 draft. Meyer started his pro ball career in the Southern League at Miami’s Double-A affiliate where he quickly made easy work of the competition, sporting a 2.41 ERA across 110 innings. He then got a taste of Triple-A ball where he truly shined with a 0.90 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in two starts.
However, his 2022 season is where things started to seemingly go awry. After only giving up six total earned runs in his first six starts at Triple-A, he stumbled with consecutive blowup outings. A month off from pitching led to a quick ‘get right’ trip at Single-A and then he returned to dominant form back in Triple-A. A mid-summer promotion to the majors lasted briefly, however, as Meyer exited his second major league start with renewed elbow tightness that resulted in Tommy John surgery procedure.
After spending all of 2023 rehabbing, dynasty owners have either likely cut ties or are still anxiously looking at his 2022 stumbles with concern. Yet, Meyer has progressed rapidly with his rehab and is recently ready for spring training. With Sandy Alcantara out for the season and continued rotation volatility, it shouldn’t be hard for Meyer to pitch his way into the rotation.
In a recent MLB.com interview Meyer shared his confidence heading into the new season by saying, “I have all the confidence in the world right now in what I can do…I’m going to turn some heads when I get back.” Dynasty owners should share the same level of confidence in Meyer. For a mid-round pick there is forgotten about true fantasy ace potential.
3. Marco Luciano, SS, Giants
Not too long ago fantasy analysts were putting out Barry Bonds comps when talking about Luciano’s power potential. While injuries have had a role in stymying his growth, it was his general underperformance over the last year and a half that’s caused Luciano’s prospect value to plummet. It’s hard for anyone to argue against a bust label when compared to his consensus top 10 prospect rankings in 2021.
Yet, as we all too often forget, prospect development curves are non-linear. For some prospects, all they need is an extended period of playing injury-free with consistent at-bats to reclaim lost development time. In 2023, Luciano finally realized that scenario, and the growth started to appear. At just 21 he progressed from AA to AAA and even got a late-season call-up that gave him 39 at-bats. While the high strikeout rate (26.9%) remained constant at each new level, it was impressive to see the high walk rate (14.3%) hold steady as well, with a quality .333 OBP in the majors.
Ready or not development-wise, Luciano is slated to serve as the Giants’ primary shortstop heading into 2024. The visions of Barry Bonds have most likely become mirages for Luciano’s potential, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t an All-Star caliber player profile to be realized down the line. Going into 2024, it will cost almost nothing to draft him in standard leagues and a fraction of prior years’ cost to acquire in dynasty formats. If Luciano can continue to demonstrate growth in the majors this season, success could look like a 2023 Nolan Gorman type of outcome.
4. Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals
Walker hasn’t been forgotten by dynasty owners, but the mania from last Spring sure has disappeared. Nothing steals a prospect’s shine like a lack of confidence demonstrated by their own organization in their readiness to contribute. After a thunderous entrance into the Grapefruit League last Spring, it seemed destined for Walker to be the next big thing.
Going into the 2023 season, much of the momentum created in spring training carried over to the majors. Walker even started his career in historic fashion by tying the century-plus-old record for the longest hit streak to begin a professional career by a player 20 years old or under at 12 games. Yet, shockingly, Walker found himself demoted to AAA just ten days later.
In an interview a month after demotion, while still in the minor leagues, Walker revealed he learned the reason for his demotion was to focus on hitting the ball in the air more. It was clear that the suggested change to his approach had broken his rhythm and shaken his confidence as a result. Finally on June 2, nearly six weeks after his demotion, Walker was recalled to the Cardinals lineup to resume his path to production.
For the remainder of 2023, Walker showed how his polished plate approach and contact skills could deliver consistent production, leading to an above-league-average batting average and on-base percentage as a rookie. While his final season numbers weren’t the 20/20+ line that overzealous drafters bet on with his skyrocketed ADP, Walker still proved his stardom in the making. Perhaps, 2024 will show the realization of the first-round caliber fantasy talent.
5. Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies
If we learned anything from the Rockies’ premature promotion of Tovar to the big leagues last season it was that it was, well, premature. Tovar’s first half of season struggles still included flashes of high-end skills that demonstrated he was close, but clearly not ready. Yet, the season wasn’t a total disaster by any means.
Called up late in the 2022 season for a cup of coffee, Tovar held his own with 7 hits in 39 at-bats. Not stellar but encouraging enough as a 20-year-old then to earn billing as the Rockies top prospect, and a near top #25 overall prospect, entering 2023. With shortstop a glaring hole in the Rockies lineup for years, there was seemingly nothing to lose in promoting him.
What’s interesting about Tovar’s 2023 season are the periods of greatness in between extended struggles. The month of June stands out as Tovar batted .323 with 5 HRs across 96 at-bats that month. This doesn’t aim to sugarcoat his season which included several brutal months, but it displays his potential to perform at a high level for an extended period.
Tovar currently is a pretty easy get in dynasty leagues and likely a late-round flyer pick in redraft leagues going into this year. For those fantasy baseball managers who have the patience to bet on potential, Tovar should be a target. An athletic young shortstop playing in Colorado doesn’t come along very often, but when it does, it’s worth the risk to invest in.
Realizing the Dream Delayed
The only certainty in fantasy baseball is uncertainty, especially when it comes to undeveloped and underutilized prospects. This list of post-hype prospects not only comprises five players who all had once earned the fantasy community’s belief in their future but also are all players whose organizations have kept that belief in their potential. With limited recent game data to draw conclusions around for projections, perhaps the vote of confidence from their team’s front office might offer the best indication of increased production ahead.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.