Draft Strategy: Using Historical ADP to Predict Success Rates

Formulating a draft strategy is essential to having a successful draft. If you are anything like me, you do several (bordering on too many) mock drafts trying to prepare. What I find most helpful is coming up with a concrete plan for what I want to accomplish in the first few rounds. Formulating a draft strategy is entirely based on the ADP of players. The other week I began thinking about how reliable ADP can be. I asked myself if there is a specific position group more reliable early in drafts than other positions. I began researching this question and came up with statistically significant conclusions that I break down in this article below!

Research

The first step was coming up with a population of data that I could take samples from. For this research I wanted to focus on the top 15 finishers at each infield position and how they compared to their positional ADP. I focused on infield due to the variation of outfield positions in a fantasy lineup. For the top finishers I used Fangraphs Auction Calculator. This tool allows you to play around with different scoring settings, different budget settings, and lets you see both prior season’s data and future projection systems. For this experiment I decided to use points scoring as my base. I was able to pull historical finishes by position for 2013-2021.

The ADP was a little bit more difficult to find. I was able to use data provided by Fantasydata in order to find the ADP by position for 2017 to 2021. In order to find information for 2013 to 2016 I had to do more digging since the data was not easily available. For these years I was able to find data for 2016 and 2015 using ESPN Staff Rankings. These are not quite an ADP but they still paint a good picture of how players were projected to perform during the season. The other two years I found articles analyzing NFBC data for that draft season. I am sure that was not the final ADP, but for the sake of this research it is close enough.

The next step was comparing the data and deciding what I wanted this research to focus on. There were several different categories that I decided to study and tests that I performed to see if one specific group was statistically different from the others. These categories included:

• Top 3 ADP finishing in the top 5 at the position
• 6-10 ADP finishing inside of the top 5 at the position
• Success Rate of top 10 picks (ADP of top 10 finishing inside of the top 10)
• Success Rate of top 5 picks (ADP of top 5 finishing inside of the top 5)
• Long shot success rate (Being drafted outside of the top 20 and finishing inside of the top 10
• Bust Rate (Being drafted inside of the top 7 and finishing at least 7 picks lower than ADP)

This data was primarily binomial. If the player fit the category, they received a 1 and if not a 0. Using the Central Limit Theorem and a large enough dataset, I was able to assume that this data followed an approximately normal distribution. Using this assumption, I performed hypothesis tests to determine which values, if any, were statistically significant. The results for each position are broken down below!

Positional Breakdown

First Base

First base usually has the highest replacement level for any position. This leads to prices often being lower because there are so many power hitting guys that can provide value to your team. After conducting my research, 1B finished with the highest Top 10 Success Rate and the highest rate of players drafted between 6-10 to finish inside of the top 5. This is not surprising since there are so many players with borderline elite production at the position. Both results were statistically significant at the 95^th percent confidence level. Thus, you are significantly more likely to draft a first baseman inside of the top 10 and have them finish inside of the top 10 compared to any other position. Almost 7% more likely in this case.

Looking at the table above it is noticeable that the top 5 success rate for this position is well below league average. First base also has the highest average ADP amongst top 5 finishers at the position. The point of this article is not to tell you that Freddie Freeman is bad. He obviously is a great player and has been for years. This article is to help you formulate a draft strategy. According to this study, you are more likely to find a top 5 finisher at first base than you are at any other position. So, it is possible that it is in your best interest to fade the top 5 players off the board and focus on a different position while targeting somebody in the mid-tier for your fantasy team.

Below I list some of my favorite 2B targets dependent on ADP (ADP is based on NFBC data from January 1^st forward):

• Top 3: Matt Olson
• 4-10: Pete Alonso
• 11-15: Rhys Hoskins
• 16+: Rowdy Tellez

Second Base

Second base has undergone a transformation in recent years. The position used to be far and away the weakest position in fantasy but that is no longer the case. Despite the recent resurgence, second base is still a position that is difficult to draft. As seen in the table, second base has a bust rate of almost 45%. This is the highest of any infield position and is statistically significant at the 90^th percent confidence level. Therefore, a player drafted inside of the top 7 at the position is significantly more likely to bust compared to other positions. In addition, this position is tied for the lowest Top 5 Success Rate and the lowest rate of Top 3 ADP players to finish inside of the top 5.

Thus, drafting a second baseman early is risky. Although players like Albies, Turner, Merrifield, and Baez may seem exciting the risk of them busting is significantly higher. Not only is the bust rate for second basemen the highest, but over the past four seasons, the rate has been even higher. The average bust rate from 2018 to 2021 has been 57%. This concerns me when using a high-round pick on this position. Although not significant, the long-shot success rate for this position is the highest of any position. While it is still unlikely as only 23.3%, this position provides you the best chance to hit it big on a player outside of the top 20 in positional ADP.

Below I list some of my favorite 2B targets dependent on ADP (ADP is based on NFBC data from January 1^st forward):

• Top 3: Trea Turner
• 4-10: Ketel Marte
• 11-15: Jake Cronenworth
• 16+: Enrique Hernandez

Shortstop

For the 2022 season, shortstop is one of the deepest positions in fantasy. There are a lot of fun names ranging from seasoned veterans to unproven prospects. I recently was a guest on the Fantrax Toolshed discussing the position and what my draft strategy was for them. You can check out that podcast here! The research on the shortstop position yielded no statistically significant data. The results were all relatively close to league average. In terms of the rates, this position showed below-average rates for each category. In terms of the average ADP finishes, shortstop posted the second-highest for both top 5 and top 10.

Although these below average rates might be concerning, the biggest takeaway was to trust my gut with this position. This research has provided significant data for every other position, so my plan is to follow those trends and to see how shortstop fits in with those trends. The data shows that historically shortstop has been right in line with league average in each category, so finding a player or two that I like and trying to take them when possible, seems like the best plan of action.

Below I list some of my favorite SS targets dependent on ADP (ADP is based on NFBC data from January 1^st forward):

• Top 3: Fernando Tatis Jr.
• 4-10: Francisco Lindor
• 11-15: Corey Seager
• 16+: Jake Cronenworth

Third Base

Third base showed the most statistically significant results in this research. The Top 5 success rate was statistically significant at the 95^th percent confidence level. This meaning that we are 95% confident that drafting a third baseman inside of the top 5 will return top 5 production more than any other position. In addition to this, being drafted in the top 3 resulted in a top 5 finish 59.3% of the time. This is statistically significant at the 90^th percent confidence level. The top five third basemen going off the board are:

• Jose Ramirez- Cleveland Guardians
• Rafael Devers- Boston Red Sox
• Manny Machado- San Diego Padres
• Austin Riley- Atlanta Braves
• Adalberto Mondesi- Kansas City Royals

The key result from this research is to draft a third baseman early when possible. While it is no guarantee, you are increasing your chances of getting production that matches the ADP. I am not a fan of Adalberto Mondesi, but the other four I believe will return value that is worth their ADP. Even looking at the average ADP of top 5 finishers, it is well below league average. This further emphasizes the point of grabbing one of the elite third basemen early.

Below I list some of my favorite 3B targets dependent on ADP (ADP is based on NFBC data from January 1^st forward):

• Top 3: Rafael Devers
• 4-10: Alex Bregman
• 11-15: Ryan McMahon
• 16+: Jeimer Candelario

Catcher

Many believe there is a large drop-off in talent after the first few catchers. Fantasy managers often try to get in on one of the few elites at the position before they are all taken. None of the values in the table above were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. However, there was one value that was conclusive if we lower our confidence percentage. At the 90^th percent confidence level, we can conclude that a catcher with a top 3 ADP is significantly more likely to finish inside of the top 5 at the position. This conclusion fits the thought that drafting an elite catcher can pay dividends. The top three catchers going off the board this season are:

• Salvador Perez- KC Royals
• JT Realmuto- Philadelphia Phillies
• Will Smith- Los Angeles Dodgers

Looking at the other numbers, nothing jumps off the page. Despite having a high success rate for the top 3 catchers, the top 5 success rate is just above league average. Logically, this means that catchers with an ADP of 4-5 are less likely to return those top 5 results. The average ADP of the top 5 finishers is worse than the league average. The average ADP of the top 10 is slightly better. My takeaway is that going into drafts I want a top 3 catcher. They are going to provide me with elite value at the position almost 60% of the time. If I miss them, I am probably holding until later and taking a shot on somebody outside of the top 10.

Below I list some of my favorite catcher targets dependent on ADP (ADP is based on NFBC data from January 1^st forward):

• Top 3: Will Smith
• 4-10: Mitch Garver
• 11-15: Sean Murphy
• 16+: MJ Melendez

Takeaways for 2022 Drafts

What you do with this information is entirely up to you. Maybe it will change your draft strategy, or maybe it will not. I know for me personally after completing this research I found it almost necessary to grab one of the top third basemen in my drafts. If I can be guaranteed a higher success rate, it makes sense to grab a player while I can. There are going to be fluctuations each year but trying to find some sense or regularity in drafts is always helpful. The most important thing to remember during draft season is to have fun. Usually drafting is the most enjoyable part of playing fantasy sports, besides winning. When you go into your drafts remember to have a plan, be ready to adapt, and most importantly have fun doing it!