In this week’s edition of dynasty buys and sells, I will run through why a starting pitcher off to a torrid start is a sell-high candidate. Also, I will explain why one of the most recognized names in fantasy baseball is also a sell in dynasty leagues. The dynasty buys feature an unlikely candidate to hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases and also a 19-year-old teenager with monster potential. In case you missed it, you should also check out last week’s edition of 2024 Dynasty Baseball Buys and Sells.
Dynasty Baseball Buys
Jose Siri, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Siri is arguably the cheapest player in dynasty leagues who has a legit opportunity to hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases. There is a reason for that. His batting average will be a drag and his RBI and runs totals won’t be the greatest if he continues to hit ninth in the Rays lineup. However, if he manages to join the 30/30 club this season, he will still most likely be a steal at his current price tag.
He hit 25 homers last year in only 364 plate appearances. The Rays dealt Manuel Margot in the off-season, so Siri should receive more playing time in center field. If he receives 500 plate appearances, 30 homers is certainly within reach this season. His highest stolen base total in the majors is only 14, but Rays manager, Kevin Cash has said they will be more aggressive on the base paths this season.
Siri has already swiped three bags in his first six games, so it appears he is going to be running quite a bit more this season. Many people will be turned off by his low batting average, but I still consider him a dynasty buy. In 2023, only four players achieved a 30/30 season, so if you can get him for a relatively low price, it could pay huge dividends.
Lazaro Montes, OF, Seattle Mariners
Montes is only ranked on one top 100 prospect list among Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America is the only site to rank him and he is their #100 prospect. Montes isn’t on many of the top prospect sites, mainly because he profiles as a DH due to his below-average defense. Luckily, you won’t have to worry about his defense for fantasy purposes.
He is only 19 years old and will be for this entire baseball season. Montes has one of the highest upsides of any prospect in the minor leagues. He’s often compared to Yordan Alvarez. He can hit for average, has enormous power potential and elite on-base skills. Last season, in Single-A ball, Montes slashed .321/.430/.565 as an 18-year-old. If health permits and he performs well this year, there is a chance we see him in the majors by the end of next season. I believe Montes is already a top-10 dynasty prospect for fantasy, but I don’t think many people feel the same way. I think now is the time to consider him a dynasty buy before the minor league season starts and he puts together one of the most impressive seasons in the minors.
Dynasty Sells
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
In 2021, Vlad had one of the best fantasy seasons in recent memory. The Blue Jays slugger had 48 homers, 111 RBI, 123 runs, and a .311 average. Many have speculated that a “juiced ball” and playing half of his home games at a minor league stadium may have led to inflated numbers.
Since then, Guerrero has simply not been able to recapture the magic from his 2021 season. His homers, RBI, runs, and average have all dropped each of the last two seasons. Last year, Vlad collected 26 homers, 94 RBI, 78 runs, and a .264 average. It’s a considerable drop-off in production from his tremendous 2021 season.
It’s a very concerning trend to see Guerrero’s fantasy stats on the decline for the past two years. I think many people are still considering Vlad as a top-three dynasty first baseman and holding out hope he returns to his 2021 form. However, if Vlad can’t consistently return to .300/30/100 fantasy numbers, I think it’s wise to sell him in a dynasty. There is sure to be a manager who still holds him as a top two or three dynasty first basemen who will pay an arm and a leg for him.
Garrett Crochet, SP, Chicago Whitesox
Crochet has been one of the best starting pitchers in fantasy baseball through his first two starts. He has compiled a 1.38 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 16 strikeouts in 13 innings. This includes a start against the high-octane offense of the Atlanta Braves. You can’t really ask for a much better start to the season from any starting pitcher.
However, I have serious concerns about his workload. In 2021, he set a career-high of 54.1 innings pitched. Prior to this year, he had never made a start in the minor or major leagues. He spent three seasons at the University of Tennessee, where he only made 13 total starts. Since 2018, he has only thrown a total of 230.1 innings across college, minor leagues and the major leagues.
Crochet has also dealt with control issues throughout his career. Entering this year, he had a career 4.9 BB/9 in the majors. In his short minor league career, he has a career 4.4 BB/9. Even though he only walked one batter over these first two starts, the command problems could still be an issue moving forward. I fear with the high walk rates coupled with the workload limitations, he could be destined for the bullpen in the future. For this reason, I would sell high in dynasty leagues.
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