In this week’s edition of Dynasty Baseball Buys there are two widely available prospects that you need to get your hands on before it’s too late. The Dynasty Baseball Sells feature two pitchers who have had tremendous success this season but have vastly outperformed their advanced metrics. In case you missed it, you should check out last week’s edition of Dynasty Baseball Buys and Sells.
Dynasty Baseball Buys
Michael Arroyo, 2B/SS Seattle Mariners
Arroyo was not a very highly touted prospect coming into this season. He wasn’t ranked as a top-100 prospect by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus or MLB.com. Arroyo isn’t even ranked as a top-10 prospect in the Mariners’ own system. He has been flying under the fantasy radar and is still widely available in most dynasty leagues, but that window could be closing very soon.
If you’re looking to stash a prospect for next season who could skyrocket in the prospect rankings, you may want to snag Arroyo. He has been enjoying a breakout season, slashing .281/.402/.502 with 20 home runs, 78 RBI, 88 runs, and 11 stolen bases across Single-A and High-A. Arroyo has displayed elite on-base skills his entire career with a .414 on-base percentage in 994 plate appearances. At only 19 years old, he is just starting to scratch the surface of his potential. I would highly suggest adding Arroyo if he’s still available in your dynasty league.
Logan Henderson, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Henderson was also not a consensus top-100 prospect by any of the big three prospect ranking sites. He was drafted in the 4th round of the 2021 draft out of McLennan Community College. He is ranked the 10th-best prospect in Milwaukee’s farm system. Many people believe that Jacob Misiorowski might be the crown jewel of the Brewers’ pitching prospects, but I would argue that title goes to Henderson.
Henderson exploded onto the scene last season by posting a 2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 106 strikeouts in 78 innings at Single-A. This year he has pitched at three different levels, reaching Triple-A earlier this month. He has compiled a 2.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts in 71.1 innings. Henderson could potentially receive a call-up later this season. He has quickly become one of the best pitching prospects in the minor leagues. I consider him a very strong dynasty baseball buy.
Dynasty Baseball Sells
Reynaldo Lopez, SP, Atlanta Braves
Expectations weren’t very high on Lopez as a starter this year, after all, he had only made 18 starts since 2020 heading into this season. However, he has been one of the biggest surprises of 2024. He has put together a 2.05 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 112 strikeouts in 109.1 innings. Lopez has allowed two earned runs or less in 17 of his 20 starts. He has the lowest ERA of any pitcher with at least 100 innings.
While everything has been great on the surface for Lopez, the underlying numbers tell a much different story. His xERA is 4.28, xFIP is 3.72 and his SIERA is 3.91, which implies he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in fantasy. His ERA could easily be double what it is now. It’s a perfect time to consider Lopez a dynasty baseball sell and cash in while you still have the opportunity.
Tobias Myers, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Myers was a relatively unknown prospect coming into this season. He had a 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his minor league career entering this year. Myers had been lurking in the minors since 2016 and threw over 620 innings before finally receiving the call-up by the Brewers. He has been spectacular in his rookie season, putting up a pristine 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 90 strikeouts in 103.1 innings.
His success has paid big dividends to dynasty owners so far, but that could all be ending very soon. There are several warning signs that point to a regression. Myers’ xERA, xFIP and SIERA are all over 4.05, which is over a full run higher than his actual ERA. Also, his fastball has dropped 1.2 MPH since last season in Triple-A. If you own Myers in a dynasty, I think it’s wise to treat him as a dynasty baseball sell.
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