In this week’s edition of dynasty baseball buys, there is an excellent chance to buy low on a future ace and a rookie hitter is starting to find his groove. The dynasty baseball sells consist of a rookie starting to hit a wall and a scalding hot hitter whose value might never be higher than it is right now. In case you missed it, you should check out last week’s edition of Dynasty Baseball Buys and Sells.
Dynasty Baseball Buys
Bobby Miller, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
In a surprising move, Miller was optioned to the minor leagues on Wednesday. However, it wasn’t very surprising based on his performance this year. He has compiled an 8.07 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts in 29 innings. Miller opened up the season with a gem, throwing six shutout innings, while allowing only two hits and one walk and striking out 11 batters. Since that outing, he has put up a 10.17 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, and 16 strikeouts in 23 innings.
All of this news creates a perfect buy-low opportunity on Miller in dynasty leagues. His suggested stats paint a much prettier picture. Miller’s xFIP sits at 4.59, while his SIERA is 4.96, so he hasn’t been quite as bad as his stats may look. If you are a team out of contention in a dynasty league, this is a dream scenario to acquire Miller at a huge discount. I think it’s definitely worth your while to gauge his current price tag and see if the price is right.
Michael Busch, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Busch was traded this off-season from the Dodgers to the Cubs, which finally gave him a chance at an everyday role. He got off to a torrid start, launching six home runs over his first 16 games. However, he didn’t hit another home run over his next 18 games. A lot of dynasty managers cut bait with the rookie over that time period. In the month of May, he slashed .208/.337/.375 with two home runs and six RBI.
Busch has turned things around since the start of June, but his ownership is still rather low given his production. Since June 7t, he has hit .344 with four home runs, 11 RBI and 15 runs scored in 96 at-bats. Among players whose primary position is first base this year, Busch ranks 4th in WAR, only behind Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, and Christian Walker. Busch has shown a lot of promise in his rookie season and he is a very strong dynasty baseball buy at this point.
Dynasty Baseball Sells
Shota Imanaga, SP, Chicago Cubs
Imanaga dominated the first two months of the season. In his first nine starts, he had a pristine 0.84 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts in 53.2 innings. In six of those nine starts, he allowed zero earned runs. He earned NL Rookie of the Month in April. His transition from professional baseball in Japan to the major leagues went about as smoothly as possible as he was arguably the best fantasy pitcher through late May.
However, Imanaga has hit a roadblock since his hot start. He has a 6.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts over his last 37.1 innings. Imanaga has a 3.61 xERA, a 3.71 xFIP and a 3.55 SIERA, which are all above his actual 3.16 ERA. Regression in the second half seems likely for Imanaga. The league may be starting to finally figure him out and for that reason I consider him a dynasty baseball sell.
Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
Byron Buxton is currently one of the hottest hitters on the planet. He is hitting .395 with six home runs, 22 RBI, 22 runs scored, two stolen bases and a 1.203 OPS over the last month. Actually, the only player over the last month (with a minimum of 20 at-bats) who has a higher OPS than Buxton is Shohei Ohtani. Buxton only has three hit-less games since June 10th. He simply is on another level right now.
You may never get a better chance to sell high on Buxton. He has always been one of the most frustrating players to own due to his durability concerns. Buxton is in his 10th season and has never reached 500 at-bats before and he has only reached 350 at-bats once in his career. Also, Buxton is slashing .282/.332/.496, but his expected slash line is .252/.329/.458, so not only is some regression likely coming, but an injury seems inevitable too. Sell high in dynasty leagues while you still can.
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