Last week in Dynasty Dugout, we profiled some of the top dynasty fantasy baseball options from the recently completed MLB amateur draft. Those players are just starting their professional careers so we won’t know how good they can really be for a few years.
However, the players profiled below were all top prospects at one point and have each had their fair share of struggles at the major league level. The question is, can they correct their flaws and turn into productive fantasy players?
Maikel Franco (3B – PHI)
After a promising rookie season in 2015, Franco saw his value rise considerably to that of a top-10 dynasty third baseman. However, that might end up being the peak of his dynasty value. To put it simply, Franco has had his difficulties over the past year and a half.
His 2016 season was okay, at best. Yes, he had 25 home runs and 88 RBI, but when you look deeper, those numbers don’t seem that impressive. Even with those 25 home runs, his OPS was an uninspiring .733 at season’s end. That mark has dropped even further this season to .649.
He’s simply not the power hitter everyone made him out to be. He doesn’t make consistently hard contact, nor does he hit a lot of fly balls. In fact, his hard hit and fly ball percentage both sit at 29.6% this season. That is a below average number in both categories.
Since speed isn’t a part of his game, Franco needs to put up good power numbers to be a viable dynasty starter. That’s starting to look like it’s not going to happen. Even with his value being low, it’s time to move on if you can. The Phillies are looking to get rid of him, too. The arrow on Franco is pointing steeply downward in both real life and dynasty leagues.
Bust-Meter: High
Byron Buxton (OF – MIN)
When Carlos Correa was drafted ahead of Buxton in the 2012 MLB amateur draft, it was seen as a mistake by a lot of people. Fast forward five years later, and Correa has become a star and Buxton is riding first class on Bust Airlines.
The tools Buxton possessed when he was drafted made MLB scouts and dynasty league owners drool. Everything about him was either plus or elite. He was gifted with 80-grade speed, 65-grade power, and a 70-grade hit tool. What wasn’t to like? Some in the industry were even throwing out Mike Trout comparisons early in Buxton’s minor league career.
The biggest reason why Buxton has struggled mightily at the major league level is his deteriorating contact rate. Through his first 637 at-bats, Buxton has struck out 237 times. That translates to a 33.8% strikeout rate. Not to point out the obvious, but you can’t do much for your fantasy owners if you can barely even get on base.
Paul Molitor says the #MNTwins are seeing signs of improvement at the plate from Byron Buxton.
"He's working very diligently" pic.twitter.com/0z04m4RodH
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) June 15, 2017
His morbidly low OBP has affected his elite speed too. An OBP around .320 or so is considered average. If Buxton could get his in that area, he’d be a 40-50+ stolen base threat. Until that happens, his value will remain anemically low. I hate to call a player as young and talented as Buxton a bust, but he’s heading down that path.
Now might be a good time to buy low on Buxton as his value might never be lower. I’m not saying he’s going to figure it out, but it’s worth taking a shot to find out.
Bust-Meter: Medium
Joc Pederson (OF – LAD)
After having incredible success in the minors, Pederson seemed destined to become a fantasy star. During his last three minor leagues seasons, he averaged 24 home runs, 29 steals, and 94 runs scored per season. Pretty good, right? Due to his tendency to strikeout often, his career .303 minor league batting average was sure to drop. However, fantasy owners could stomach a .250 average if it came with close to, or over, 30 home runs and steals each year.
The power has been there, but that’s about it. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Pederson somehow forgot how to steal bases after his promotion to the major leagues. In 1,056 major league at-bats, he’s only managed 11 steals. In fact, he’s been caught stealing more times (12) than he’s been successful.
There’s still some hope remaining for Pederson from a fantasy perspective. In each of the last two seasons, he has gotten better at limiting his strikeouts. His K% dropped from 29.1% in his rookie year to 27.3% in 2016, and 23.8% so far this season.
Even with his strikeouts at a career low, Pederson is having the worst season of his career. Now, why might that be? There are two big reasons why. He’s making softer contact and hitting fewer fly balls. During his rookie season, Pederson’s hit fly balls 42.4% of the time. This year that number is all the way down to 29.4%.
If Pederson can continue to limit the strikeouts and regain his swing, he can at least become a valuable power asset. Let’s just hope he can find his groove on the base paths again.
Bust-Meter: Medium
Tyler Glasnow (SP – PIT)
When you look at Glasnow’s career so far, it’s a textbook example of how bad control can slow even the most talented pitcher’s development. Glasnow fits the mold of an ace. He’s big, throws hard, and has a plus secondary offering. His fastball averages around 94 mph and he also has a plus looping curveball that he gets a lot of strikeouts with. However, the problem ever since he was drafted in 2011 has been spotty control.
It’s common for young pitchers to better their control as they gain experience. That hasn’t been the case with Glasnow, as his walk rate has continued to worsen. It was 2.9 in Single-A, 3.3 in Double-A, and 5.1 in Triple-A. Over his first 19 major league appearances, Glasnow has microscopically bettered that rate at 4.87 BB/9.
Not all is lost with the young right-hander. He’s still only 23, possesses an ace-caliber arsenal, and is under the tutelage of one of the best pitching minds around in Ray Searage. If you want to see why Searage is a big factor here, just check out the splits below on three recent starting pitchers, before and after they came to Pittsburgh.
Pitcher | Year(s) | ERA Before | ERA After |
Ivan Nova | 2016 | 4.90 | 3.06 |
J.A. Happ | 2015 | 4.64 | 1.85 |
Francisco Liriano | 2012-13 | 5.34 | 3.02 |
If anyone can work their magic on Glasnow’s control, it’s Searage. Worst-case scenario is he turns into a big, hard-throwing, dominant reliever like Dellin Betances. Luckily, he’s still young and has the people around him to help him better his control and turn into a fantasy ace.
Bust-Meter: Low
Got a question about a player not covered here? Feel free to ask in the comments section below or hit me up on Twitter @EricCross04. Thanks as always for reading, and check back next Tuesday for another edition of Dynasty Dugout.