Mark Twain once said, “Honesty is the best policy – when there’s money in it.” That truth applies no less today than it did over 100 years ago in March 1901 when Twain uttered those words. NFL teams certainly agree. It has often been said that teams are only honest with the public at the draft and in free agency. If that is true, then as a dynasty manager walking the tightrope of staying on top of player value we should use any cue we get to give ourselves an edge. Why? Well knowing how tied to a player a team is on the financial side of things can give you insight as to how that team really feels about said player. That should impact how you value them. As in most cases, staying put for a starting receiver for example, is the ideal scenario. But staying up on contract situations can illuminate potential issues before they become clear to the less attentive dynasty manager and provide windows in which to exploit value. Sometimes, a holdout is predictable…
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Le’Veon Bell & Antonio Brown’s Dust-Ups With Pittsburgh Were Always On The Horizon…
With all the vitriol being spewed in the direction of NFL players like Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown in recent weeks, there are plenty of reasons to take a step back from taking one of two polarized stances. In Bell’s case, the Steelers had every intention of keeping his touch count up near the top of the league as it had been in 2017. Bell, on a franchise tag that guaranteed him no future earnings after 2019 (and at the back end of his peak age), wanted to ensure he could preserve himself for future seasons. While I won’t get into what he stands to lose or gain by this action, the logic can at least be followed.
In Brown’s case the Steelers aren’t financially incentivized to do a deal as they will be on the hook for $21M in dead money. Brown is upset that only $19M of his $68M deal is guaranteed. While this wasn’t an issue in his younger years, the fact that Brown could get injured and released at a significant cap savings as early as 2020 (as displayed below) had to have made him nervous. Brown is great, but he isn’t getting any younger and he recognizes that (Matt Friedman wrote a piece about Antonio Browns’ statistical step back in 2018). As a former 6th round pick turned NFL WR1, Brown realizes his last big money deal could be in limbo. For all Brown’s social media antics, he is, rather smartly, lowering his trade value across the league. Teams will play “chicken” with the Steelers and use Brown’s “antics” as causes to lower their compensation.
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) February 21, 2019
Adam Thielen May Want To Check His Market Value…
Thielen has to be at a crossroads. On one hand, the Minnesota Vikings are his childhood team. The Vikings and the Carolina Panthers were the only two teams interested in Thielen as a UDFA out of Minnesota State (a DII school). As a kid who never envisioned playing in the pros until his breakout senior season, Thielen must be thrilled at the opportunity to earn seven figures impacting his home team’s record. On the other, Thielen has played well enough to earn at least double what he’s currently taking home. Over the last three seasons, Thielen has finished as a WR24 or better in PPR leagues and has outproduced fellow WR Stefon Diggs in every year. He made less than Michael Crabtree, Travis Benjamin, and Marquise Lee last season. Diggs signed the sixth richest WR deal in the league in 2018.
The Proof Is In The Pudding…
In a direct comparison with fellow WR Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen has been the more efficient producer in their shared careers. According to Josh Hermsmeyer’s Airyards.com, Thielen scored a higher RACR rating in 2016, 2017, and 2018.
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) February 21, 2019
Thielen also won when referencing counting stats. From 2016-2018, Thielen outproduced Diggs in targets (385-347), receptions (269-244), air yards (3967-3338), and reception yards (3603-2756). In TDs, the only category of note Diggs had Thielen beat, he only trails Diggs by 2 scores (20-18) over that time period. On a per game basis, he finished above Diggs in every year but 2016. Is a three-and-a-half year age difference really worth the huge income gap between them? Both receivers lack draft capital as even Diggs went undrafted until the fifth round.
But That’s Not All…
Even if Minnesota intends to placate its star wide receiver with a restructured contract that would be more easily said than done. Over the next two seasons, the Minnesota Vikings rank in the bottom three in projected cap space and will have to be creative to stay under the cap as is. Over the last three years, Thielen has averaged a WR12 finish (12.33) in PPR leagues according to FantasyPros. The average annual contract value of receivers in the top 12 over the last three years (not counting those on rookie deals) is $12.21M. Thielen’s average is $4.81M.
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) February 21, 2019
So the next time someone bad mouths a player for demanding more cash consider walking a mile in Thielen’s shoes. If your boss paid everyone else in the building, including your coworker in the next cubicle, an average of 250%+ more than you, would you hold out?
As a dynasty manager, be careful with Adam Thielen for the 2019 season. There was a stark difference between the first eight and last eight games of the 2018 season for him but there could be even more red flags on the horizon.
Want to learn more about how contracts affect dynasty value? Follow me on Twitter @FF_Wonderkid.
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