Oftentimes, even in salary-capped leagues, there is an onus on the front office of contending teams to spend to compete. The NFL is no different. Unless your squad resides in New England, chances are competing at the highest level (i.e. a Superbowl berth) generally requires skirting awfully close to the hard cap line. Even if immediate financial hell is averted by shrewd management the bill becomes due eventually. A year removed from their first Super Bowl triumph, the Philadelphia Eagles must now deal with the repercussions. As dynasty managers attempting to stay ahead of the curve, it is now time for us to drill deep and figure out what this all means for the #FlyEaglesFly faithful.
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The 2019 Eagles have the second-least cap space for the coming season with just a reported $6.03M (31st NFL) left to spend on additions. Because of this, they will have to make some salary saving decisions.
As the cap begins to put the squeeze on Philadelphia, integral parts of the team will need to be jettisoned to stay within league rules. It has been announced in a recent report that QB Nick Foles will avoid the franchise tag and he headlines a group of probable fantasy-relevant talent set to depart Lincoln Financial in 2019.
Second on the list of likely departures is Golden Tate. Acquired midseason for a reported third-round selection, Tate didn’t exactly light the world on fire. At a glance, Tate’s 65-percent catch-rate (T3rd-worst career), 0.7 drops per game (2nd-worst NFL WRs), and 1.60 fantasy points per target (75th NFL) don’t inspire confidence. But sometimes things appear worse than they actually are. Despite Tate’s relatively down year he was still able to perform admirably according to Josh Hermsmeyer’s RACR metric. In the 2018 season, Tate recorded a 1.13 RACR rating (5th WRs 50+ targets) and 412 YAC yards (11th NFL). He clearly has more to offer. Unfortunately, with a projected $10.2M average salary per annum, the Eagles are almost assuredly priced out.
Nelson Agholor will be following closely behind. The slot receiver out of USC wasn’t able to continue his breakout 2017 performance. Despite career highs in catch rate (67%), receptions (64), and YAC (3.5Y/TGT, 22nd NFL) Agholor simply wasn’t able to keep up his 12.9% touchdown rate and found the endzone four times this season, just half of the eight he totaled in 2017. As Agholor is set to count $9.387M against the cap in 2019 compared to a $0 dead cap hit, absolutely no one should be surprised seeing him don new colors next season.
Hefty Price Tags On Old Reliables…
Departures aren’t the only thing that should be worrying to those that roster Eagles in dynasty. Big time contributors like Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz have backloaded deals whose full impact is just now being felt.
In what sounds like a 180 degree about face from what fantasy twitter feels about Alshon Jeffery’s performance this past season, he actually put together one of the most solid years of his career. Though he played just 13 games, his 71% catch rate and 0.83 RACR rating were top marks in his career. Even the 843 reception yards he totaled were the third most of Jeffery’s seven year career. Rather unfortunately, the Eagles don’t stand to benefit for long. Unless Alshon’s deal is extended or he takes a pay cut, GM Howie Roseman will be strongly incentivized to move on from Wentz’ number one.
As you can see below:
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) March 1, 2019
Jeffery’s deal is secure for 2019 as his $20.675M dead cap charge compared to his $14.725M cap charge makes trading or releasing him an illogical option. That situation turns on its head in the 2020 season however, as the Eagles stand to save $13M by moving on from the veteran.
Zach Ertz’ deal is wrought with similar concerns. To date, Ertz’ cap hit has never exceeded the $5M mark, maxing out at just $4.938M last year. In the 2019 season that cap hit nearly triples to $12.047M compared to a $10.542M dead cap charge. Ertz will be in the Eagles’ plans this season, but as you can see below…
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) March 1, 2019
…his guarantees are up in 2020 and the Eagles have an out in his contract after this season. With the newly drafted Dallas Goedert in tow, a $7.75M savings may be too much to bypass. Let this take nothing away from Ertz however, as his 156 (1st TEs) targets, 28.6% (6th TEs) end zone target share, 95.4% snap share (2nd TEs), 26.6% dominator rating (2nd TEs), and 8 TDs scored (3rd TEs) exemplify his dominance. Still, the money says that it’s high time for a shakeup. This doesn’t even account for the projected $30.8M the Eagles will likely have to pony up after Carson Wentz’ 5th-year option is played through in the 2020 season.
Oh times they are a-changin’ and hopefully this can help be a roadmap for your future dynasty rostered Eagles decisions.
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