The NFL, like any sport, is a business at its core. As such, the decisions that are generally made often serve financial interests more than those centered around loyalty to players and positive sentiment towards the staff. Oftentimes even the fans’ wishes are shunned in favor of the dollar sign. In a salary capped league like the NFL, these decisions are often a way for dynasty analysts and those of us more removed from direct information from the teams to read the tea leaves and discover advantages hidden in situations in flux. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one such situation. After discussing Florida’s other team yesterday lets now pivot to the probable future of this abundant fantasy point producer.
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The Elephant In The Room…
In case you haven’t heard, Bruce Arians is the new head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A stark departure from the young coaches brought in to be the next Sean McVay, Arians is a head coach we as football fans are familiar with and at least have some history to fall back on. According to ffstatistics data, Arians’ QB1 generally finishes as an average one would. From 2007 to 2017 Arians QB1s finished at an average of 17th in the league among 32 starters. His WR1s finished around the 16th spot, and his TE1s finished at the 25th spot overall. With no clear extreme in his history, it can generally be assumed that talent will win out. Arians’ systems are schemed to fit their personnel.
If there are any data points to take note of in Arians’ history, it is that his RB1 and WR2s generally finish significantly above average.
RB1
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) February 27, 2019
WR2
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) February 27, 2019
What Does The Money Say?
A lot. The Buccaneers have the eighth least cap space in the NFL according to this chart from Over The Cap:
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) February 27, 2019
Because of this, tough decisions will have to be made about a number of players on the offensive side of the ball.
Decisions, Decisions…
DeSean Jackson has a $10M cap hit scheduled for the 2019 season. This stands against $0 in dead cap money remaining on his deal. With no guarantees left, Jackson will likely be restructured at a lower price tag (if he is amenable to that) or unceremoniously released. Despite Bruce Arians’ own feelings about the field stretching receiver, Jackson’s days in Tampa seem to be numbered.
Adam Humphries is another pass-catcher that is likely on the move. Humphries is an unrestricted free agent in 2019. According to Spotrac , Humphries’ position, talent level, production level, and age considerations combine to project his market value as something in the range of $10.4M a season. This price is likely too steep for a team with only $16M in cap space as it stands. The presence of Chris Godwin all but confirms Humphries will be playing elsewhere this year.
Starting running back Peyton Barber is a restricted free agent in 2019 and former Arians charge Andre Ellington was signed to fill the gap. Ronald Jones III looms and additions are likely to be made in the draft at this spot.
Newly signed Cameron Brate is also a potential cap casualty this season. The deal Brate signed last year is much less restrictive than a 6yr, $41M deal would seem. Beginning in the 2019 season Brate has $0 left in dead money and can be cut at any time for free. With the emergence of OJ Howard last year, Brate may be seen as a redundant asset.
Even big name players like Mike Evans and Jameis Winston are seemingly on a short leash in 2019 as Evans can be traded with no dead cap throughout the life of his deal and cut for free every year after 2019. Winston and Marcus Mariota are two embattled quarterbacks playing on only their fifth-year option. If things go south in 2019 these teams will need to consider the possibility that it might not be worthwhile to pay them.
What Does It All Mean?
That opportunity will be plentiful for the players that remain. Because of the likely departure of both DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries, 179 targets will be vacated come the 2019 season. If we add in Cameron Brate to that total that number balloons to 228. While these numbers were gathered under Koetter’s time as HC and this doesn’t account for probable changes in Arians’ system, the overall point that there is opportunity available still rings true.
Evans’ 138 targets from last season are likely to increase as his career average is 143.4 a season. With less talent around him to compete for targets he will likely see more looks. Disregard Evans’ efficiency metrics as sheer volume through air yards will continue to lead to 1000 yard seasons. A “quiet” 1500 yards in 2018 speaks volumes.
Chris Godwin’s role is also extremely likely to increase. At just 95 targets last season in a bit part WR3 role that he shared with both Jackson and Humphries at times, Godwin showed some efficiency. He ranked in the top 36 in yards per route run, air yards, contested catch rate, and end zone target percentage. More looks will just result in increased production.
Anyone staying away from OJ Howard because of the Arians hire is missing the forest for the trees. The Bucs threw the ball to the tight end 97 times in 2018 between Howard and Brate and shifted more to the Alabama star in the games immediately before his season-ending injury. As Howard ranked in the top 12 leaguewide in both aDOT and YAC amongst TEs, he is another Buccaneer poised to continue his breakout this season. The foot sprain Howard suffered has an average recovery time of 6-8 weeks according to this Harvard publishing.
Even Justin Watson, a dynamic outside receiver who ranked in the 87th, 87th, and 91st percentile in size-adjusted speed, burst, and catch radius respectively should stand to benefit from increased opportunities. Upwards of 70-plus targets are not outside the realm of possibility for the sophomore receiver.
Finally, even the running back room seems to be poised to improve. As stated above, Arians RB1s tend to finish significantly above average in terms of fantasy PPR points.
Invest in these young Buccaneers. Invest in wide open depth charts. Invest in the belief that decisions will be made first with the pocketbook and your dynasty teams will never cease to reward you.
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