Health is a skill. If you’ve ever had a discussion about an injured player, you’ve probably heard someone toss an opinion like this out.
This is typically followed by a discussion of who is injury-prone and who is not. Aspersions are cast as players are forced to wear the scarlet letter of forever being one hit away from the next big injury.
Last week, we dispelled the myth of the third-year receiver breakout. This week, I’m here to tell you that the term injury-prone should only be reserved for the most extreme cases.
Health is not as simple as being a skill in the NFL. In the “Not For Long” league, injuries are the norm, with 98% of games resulting in an injury.
With the nature of the beast, you cannot expect players to be risk-free even with no injury history. The reaper comes for even the likes of D.K. Metcalf even if he’s never missed a game before last week.
“Injury prone,” as used, is a label that doesn’t apply to 98% of players.
Now, this is not to say that there aren’t obvious scenarios in which to avoid a player. It’s just that this term is used far too widely and undeserving.
If there are anatomical defects, of course, that is something that can impact injury frequency. From the sickle cell trait present in players like Tevin Coleman to Jerry Jeudy’s knee angles, there are conditions that can increase risk.
And that’s all it is. It’s an increased risk. It’s not a guarantee of anything as Coleman didn’t miss more games than average due to his anemia causing him to heal slowly. Likewise, Jeudy has been relatively healthy, though the knee has started to flare up in recent weeks.
In the absence of these traits, however, there is no reason to think a player is more likely to miss games. Even if they’re prone to bumps and bruises like Julio Jones, a player who was a fixture on injury reports, it doesn’t mean they’re at risk of major injury.
Injuries only predict future injuries of the same variety.
Carson Wentz is a classic injury-prone poster child. He has dealt with ailments of all varieties that have led the casual observer to call him soft. This is funny, as critics will also point to his willingness to take hits as a reason he suffers these problems.
It’s an easy narrative to get caught up in. But the reality is Wentz is just a victim of bad luck. There is no line between a fractured wrist, a torn ACL, or being concussed. They’re independent events that are simply a product of playing the quarterback position in the NFL.
Do they increase his propensity for injury in the future? Sure. Wentz is at an elevated risk for another ACL tear and more concussions.
However, the risk added is not significant enough that it should impact your evaluation of him or his kind when compared to the baseline of risk related to any player. At least, not to the degree managers seem to avoid “injury-prone” players.
Now not all injuries are the same of course. Injuries are also fully capable of impacting performance even if availability isn’t affected. Achilles tears in particular are difficult to recover burst from. Several concussions in a short period can also impact careers.
Take the discount on these “injury-prone” players.
As Lamar Jackson begins to build his MVP case, you may hear some doubters emerge. After all, this is a man who has sat out December football for the past two years.
There are several naysayers who, likely bitter from his trade sweepstakes this year, don’t believe he has the ability to finish. They point to his style of play, which is silly. He finished three seasons prior to that completely healthy, but recency bias reigns supreme.
They’ll point to him aging (as if 26 is old) and say his style of play contributes to injury. Research will say otherwise of course. So long as players cross positional-specific BMI measures, there is no elevated risk between, say, a between-the-tackles bruiser and a scatback.
So if there’s someone offering Jackson at a discount due to injury risk, take the discount. Similarly, check in on Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson. Their running nature doesn’t mean anything, and neither of them has developed enough of a history. Take the flash on Richardson if he’s available for cheap.
Similarly, Christian McCaffery has had a variety of unrelated ailments. From hamstring pulls to his AC joint, he should be bought for a discount if the recent flare ups are scaring managers.
Also check out our Week 8 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty