I sure wish I drafted Courtland Sutton a year ago. I’m sure most of us probably do. In this edition of the Dynasty Football Stock Watch, we’ll break down the ascension of Denver’s young receiver and touch on a few other dynasty shifts. Let’s get cracking.
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Dynasty Football Stock Watch
↑ Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos (WR)
Per Game: 4.9 receptions for 79.5 yards, 0.4 TD
Courtland Sutton is the ultimate case for prioritizing talent over situation in dynasty football. Slotted in behind veteran Pro Bowlers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, Sutton began with an uphill climb for targets. But over the first year and a half of Sutton’s career, each of the veteran receivers has been sent packing. Sutton stands alone atop the food chain and has been eating up targets and yardage. He’s been consistently winning against DB’s with power and athleticism, both before the catch and afterward.
COURTLAND SUTTON JUST KILLED A MAN pic.twitter.com/ubWO9HLb0I
— Mikey (@TheManimal18) October 27, 2019
Given his production last season, Sutton’s sophomore development shouldn’t come as a surprise. It’s important to respect historic trends of development patterns and to view young players under that lens. Courtland Sutton was not a particularly viable fantasy commodity during his rookie year, but he achieved a level of statistical production that hints at a stellar career:
40 yards per game,
14 yards per reception
50% catch success
2.6 receptions per game
Courtland Sutton has successfully built off his promising rookie campaign and has elevated himself to a high-end fantasy option this year. If you’re looking for strong bets for a similar jump next season, three rookie wide receivers are also on pace to meet Sutton’s rookie thresholds: Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, and A.J. Brown. If Courtland Sutton’s price is too steep to acquire, consider taking a stab at the next generation of breakout candidates.
↑ Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions (QB)
Per Game: 299 passing yards, 2.3 TD, 0.6 INT, 8.6 rushing yards
Every year, there seem to be a couple of quality quarterbacks that get minimal respect come draft season. Round and round we go, and it’s the same story each time. Whether its Matt Ryan, or Philip Rivers, or this time Matthew Stafford.
Generally, fantasy owners look at the previous year’s fantasy production as a barometer for future success. Unfortunately, while most fantasy league heavily reward touchdowns, they are among the most volatile of statistics to predict. For fantasy quarterbacks, passing yardage is king. Historical passing volume is the number one predictor for future fantasy success for the quarterback position, and Matthew Stafford is third in total passing yardage since 2011. He should’ve been a trade target for all of us this off-season.
Matthew Stafford was on the MONEY yesterday:
💰 348 yards
💰 3 TDs
💰 129.4 QB rating@Lions | #OnePride pic.twitter.com/WPR7uVeo2v— NFL (@NFL) October 28, 2019
Stafford’s production, particularly in the touchdown department has been elevated the continued development of Kenny Golladay and T.J. Hockenson. Stafford is making good decisions with the football, operating at career bests in touchdown percentage as well as interception percentage.
↓ Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons (RB)
Per Game: 12.1 carries for 41.6 yards (3.4 ypc), 4.4 receptions for 34 yards, 0.4 TD, 0.4 fumbles
Heading into 2019, I was higher on Devonta Freeman than just about anyone on the planet. He entered the year 100% healthy with glowing off-season reports. He was being reunited with Dirk Koetter who revitalized Doug Martin to a 1,402 yard rushing season in 2015. Tevin Coleman’s backfield share evaporated via Free Agency. Freeman was locked into a feature role in a high-end offense behind two brand new 1st round offensive linemen. But even the best-laid plans of mice and men go awry.
First-round guard Chris Linstrom broke his foot in the season opener and projected improvements to the offensive line never took hold. Freeman has been held to 3 yards per carry or less in 6 of 8 games this season and was in trade discussions to the Detroit Lions.
On the bright side, he still maintains immediate value with a featured role and activity in the passing game. Freeman has been quietly on pace for 70 receptions this season. But given his declining efficiency, creeping age, and wavering job security, Devonta Freeman’s best days may be behind him. If you’re a contender, feel free to fire him up as you would, but if you’re looking to rebuild, it would be wise to ship of Freeman for ascending talents.
Dynasty Football Penny Stock
Sam Darnold – New York Jets (QB)
Per Game: 204.4 passing yards, 0.8 TD, 2 INT, 3.8 sacks, 0.8 fumbles
I stand by my opinion that Sam Darnold is one of the best quarterbacks to build around. He keeps his eyes upfield as he buys time with his legs and can make all the throws (at such a young age!). Unfortunately, he’s currently protected by an abomination of an offensive line. Darnold could make some noise during the second half of this season based on his favorable schedule, but for the most part, he’s going to require patience befitting a rebuilding team. Once the Jets beef up his protections and improve his weapons, Darnold should ascend to a high-end fantasy quarterback for a very very long time. Get your shares while you can.
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