Dynasty Mock Breakdown

A few weeks ago – a number of former Commissioner Office guests and I begin a dynasty mock draft. Before we dive into the results and some thoughts on strategy, first, the settings:

ROTO – 5×5:

HR/OBP/R/RBI/SB

ERA/K/WHIP/SVH3/QA7

SVH3 is saves + holds/2

QA7 is 1 point if IP >= 4 && IP <= 4 2/3 and ER <= 1, or IP >= 5 && IP <= 6 2/3 and ER <= 2, or IP >= 7 and ER <= 3.

QA7 is obviously a bit more involved, but creates a helpful balance, valuing in a pitcher stats more accurately what pitcher value should be.

The only other rule of note is it is a daily league for lineups.

Things look bleak now but there will be baseball in 2022! Why not get a head start and jump in a Fantrax Classic Draft contest? Get a jump on the season with a Best Ball league or maybe a Draft and Hold. Or put some green on the line with a new season-long league to try and conquer. There’s no better time than now to get your baseball on!

Meet the Analysts

Now for our stalwart group of drafters:

@drewspurling – Fantasy Six Pack
@devjake – Over the Monster
@corbin_young21 – Fantrax, RotoViz, FantasyDataMLB, FantasyDataNFL, FantasyPros
@Mags_S20
@MichaelWaterloo – The Athletic, FatnasyPros, The Game Day MLB
@ShellyV_643 – Dynasty Guru, Pitcher List
@GatorSosa – supdogsports, Prospects1500
@BobOsgood15 – DynastyGuru, Over The Monster
@EricCross04 – Fantrax
@IanCundall – SoxProspects
@DynastyOneStop – Fantrax and DynastyOneStop
@TCasesLoaded – DynastyGuru
@MattyDubbz13
@Ztmeyer56 – FantasyBenefits
@CorporalEddy – Fantasy Six Pack

As we dive into the draft you can check out all of the results and picks here.

Dynasty Strategy

Dynasty Drafting obviously has a number of approaches – and you see most of them here:

Win Now

One approach in a dynasty draft is to go aggressively in the first year of the draft. The downside to this approach is not a long run in the league, the upside to this approach is two fold:

1. You can win in the first year or two, and win some money from the league.
2. The sad, but honest, truth is that not all dynasty leagues have long lives, so there is also a straight longevity argument of building a team to win in the first few years.
3. HOWEVER – the biggest reason to go win now (or win year two), is because you know more about the players who can help you win in those years. If you draft prospects, it is quite likely a majority of them will burn out as many top prospects sadly do. You don’t know how prospects will play out and more likely they will burn out.

Win Later

If you want to have prospects all over your roster (but assuming league rules of a legal starting roster) you can certainly go that route, but be prepared for a wait… you may be able to trade some of the prospects if you want, but more likely even if the plan works out, you’re waiting 3+ years to contend… I’ve gone this route in a free league – and it’s a fun draft, a sexy team, anddddd boring even as I make some good trades to turn veterans into young players that help my roster.

The Year 2 Approach

This approach allows for you to take prospects who have a good value for your roster while also building a team that can contend quickly. If you take this approach with young major league talents and then having a few minor leaguers sprinkled in with good value (preferably minor leaguers’ close to the majors), you have two options:

1. You can trade prospects for other win now pieces if your roster is contending year 1.
2. You can trade some older win now pieces for minor league/young players if the team isn’t contending and needs another year of seasoning.

The Dynasty Draft

So, the draft.

The draft began about how you’d expect – Soto went first overall, then Tatis Jr. and then…. Bo Bichette. Corbin took Bo at 3 – which surprised me – but isn’t a bad pick at all. I would’ve taken Ronald Acuña Jr. for sure, but would also consider Trea Turner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and in a daily league, Shohei Ohtani, but I do like Bo.

That said, those were the next few picks. The rest of the first few rounds went about as planned. In fact, based off of Chris’ super helpful dynasty ADP sheet that we discussed on a recent Toolshed, no one went more than 5 above or below their ADP other than Manny Machado going 31^st in the draft, Julio Urias at 38th, and Xander Bogaerts went 25th, almost 9 above his ADP. (Full ADP list available at the Toolshed Patreon).

One interesting pick of note was Max Scherzer going 59 in our mock, with an ADP of 45.67. I still wouldn’t go this high most likely, BUT this team was going with the win-now approach.

This, as Jake normally does, is a win now build:

Fernando Tatís Jr.
Alex Bregman
Freddie Freeman
Max Scherzer
Chris Sale
Robbie Ray
Josh Hader
Kyle Schwarber
Salvador Perez
Seiya Suzuki (fun!)

Interestingly, there was not really a roster that went full win-later approach. Eric and Mags’ teams both went a little younger and prospect heavy, but really most rosters really struck a balance. However, rather than talking through all of the rosters that you can see on the draft board – I’ll just talk about my roster.

I was thrilled to start with Jose Ramirez at 11 (ADP at 8.67). Taking a 29 year old with the first pick directed some of my choice, but also 29 and imminently tradeable if I decide my team isn’t going to contend in the next few years. Then I took Walker Buehler, Freddy Peralta, Jonathan India, and Andrew Vaughn – the only one over 25 in that group is Buehler.

So, my team can work in a number of directions – and the next few picks continued that trend:

Bryan Reynolds
Pablo Lopez
Franmil Reyes
Daulton Varsho
Gavin Lux
Jesus Luzardo
Zac Veen
Marco Luciano

Again, all young players, and all either in the majors or should be soon. My team at this point (now 13 players in), is built to continue to contend for years.

I won’t both rolling through all of my other picks since you can see them and list of names are boring – but a few of interest:

Varsho – picked at 131, with an ADP of 127.42. I love Varsho’s upside and the speed he offers. Also, one of my tendencies in leagues, especially 1 catcher leagues, especially in dynasty leagues, I have a weakness of not having a catcher I really like so Varsho it was.

Luzardo – picked at 161, ADP 198.83. I still think Luzardo has a bright future ahead of him. He hasn’t truly had a chance and I expect better going forward – more on that check out what Corbin Young wrote about him a few weeks ago here.

The only other piece of my roster and strategy I’ll touch on here is relievers. The relievers score saves + holds/2, so I waited to get a reliever until 29 to Andrew Kittredge, Garrett Crochet in the 34^th, A.J. Puk (reliever? Starter? Either works), and Rowan Wick in the 38^th (2 more rounds to go).

If a league doesn’t have saves, even IF it does count saves twice as much, I’m not going to pay up for closers. In general, relievers went 56 picks later, than their ADP in the Toolshed mocks where it was saves only.

I would rather get some relievers, especially in a daily league, where I can keep moving RPs in and out around whichever one of my starters are/aren’t going to throw who can keep getting holds so I can do respectfully in that category while doing well in the other leagues.

What teams did you like in the mock? Any picks that you really liked/disliked?

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