Heading into Week 5, even casual observers had seen enough. For the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans game on Sunday, there was only one young quarterback to watch. C.J. Stroud was coming off two impressive showings. For dynasty managers who had to “settle” for Stroud in their rookie drafts, things were looking quite rosy.
At the other end, Desmond Ridder was coming off the third worst start of the year by QBR. Only behind the absolute duds put up by Jordan Love against the Detroit Lions and Daniel Jones against the Dallas Cowboys, Ridder was atrocious.
At one point against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Ridder threw back-to-back interceptions. Three plays later, Ridder tossed another ball up for grabs that was dropped by a defender.
So coming out from rock bottom to toss for over 300 yards with both a passing and rushing TD in Week 5 was a shock. Atlanta’s offense may have only scored 21 points, but it showed an ability to move the chains and was stymied by a pair of lost fumbles.
So does that mean it’s time to go and get yourself a buy-low target in Desmond Ridder?
Don’t buy the one-game narrative. Ridder is toast.
There is no modern precedent for a player like Ridder to become a long-term NFL success. We can, of course, think of late-round successes such as Kirk Cousins, Brock Purdy, or… well, you know who.
But there’s a key difference between these quarterbacks and what Ridder has put on tape. Whether it’s Dak Prescott, Matt Schaub, or Russell Wilson, they were good the minute they got the job.
These six quarterbacks essentially represent the entire group of truly successful quarterbacks selected in the third round or later since the year 2000. It’s just not that big of a sample, and even then, among them, they were good from the jump.
Of course, none of these players would have been given a very long leash had they not performed well. But while that presents a survivorship bias, it doesn’t change the fact that Ridder doesn’t have a good historical comparison.
If you’re looking for a dynasty quarterback to anchor you, Ridder is not going to be part of any good formula.
He hasn’t just been bad. Ridder has been among the worst in the NFL.
In order to get to elite quarterbacks, you need to pressure them. This is a tale as old as time in the league and there’s a good statistical basis that backs up the eye test.
Quarterbacks are extremely consistent in clean-pocket situations. How they perform when they’re able to deliver the ball with space is a generally a repeatable skill.
Under pressure? A completely different story. Quarterback performances fluctuate wildly from year to year. Part of this is due to the smaller sample size as quarterbacks only have so many pressure attempts a year.
Regardless, PFF’s grading systems sort these types of plays out. Ridder ranked 1st against pressure last year in his four-game audition. This year, he’s middle of the pack at 14th. Not too shabby overall, but still a magntiude of difference.
His clean pocket passing grade ranking? Last year it was 51.4, good for 69th of 83 quarterbacks to drop back last year.
This year, Ridder sports a 52.5 ranking 43rd among 49 quarterbacks. Plainly, that’s just not going to cut it in this league
There is no need for seasoning. The great dynasty quarterbacks show out within their first 8 games.
Take a look at the starters around the league. The days of holding the clipboard in your rookie year have long since ended as most everyone started immediately.
In spite of being thrown straight into the fire, these quarterbacks showed that they belonged in just the first half of their rookie seasons. In fact, it is easier to name the quarterbacks who didn’t immediately excel and have held onto starting jobs for more than a year:
Justin Fields, CHI
Jared Goff, DET
Trevor Lawrence, JAX
Kenny Pickett, PIT
Geno Smith, SEA
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
Zach Wilson, NYJ
In the cases of Goff, Lawrence, and Tagovailoa, all either number-one overall picks or projected as such at one point, they were hamstrung by particularly bad situations.
Playing for defensive coaches in Jeff Fisher and Brian Flores, or a complete disaster in Urban Meyer clearly set these young players back. Their talents have since shined.
Fields is currently fighting after a similar bad situation but the jury is still out. Likewise, Pickett and Wilson don’t look like long-term starters.
And while Geno Smith is the closest to an example of the true comeback story, it took a long time for him to get there. And these stories are just too few and far between.
So while the main takeaway here is to not get caught up in Ridder hype, there’s a larger story. For your dynasty quarterbacks, expect instant success. Anything less, you may want to cut bait before the boat sinks.
Also check out our Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty