This is the tough part of the job. It’s easy to be optimistic when a consensus top prospect is tearing the cover off the ball or recording astronomical strikeout totals during their meteoric rise to the big leagues. What happens when a talented young player is struggling to meet lofty expectations? Is it time to cut bait completely or is there reason for optimism? This week’s column examines five talented prospects (or at least former top prospects in some cases) and attempts to make sense of their first-half struggles.
First-Half Fallers in Dynasty Leagues
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Tigers
On the heels of last year’s 31-homer breakthrough campaign, it was relatively easy to slot Torkelson in as a borderline top-75 overall dynasty contributor entering the year. Unfortunately, he got off to an ice-cold start this season, posting a calamitous .201/.266/.330 triple-slash line with four homers across 230 plate appearances in 54 games to earn a demotion to the minors by early June.
The 24-year-old former first-overall pick hasn’t fared much better at Triple-A Toledo over the last few weeks, batting .229 (33-for-144) with five homers, while still striking out 30 percent of the time. There are no easy answers here, but if the over-the-fence pop isn’t going to show up, he’s not making enough contact to contribute for fantasy purposes. His prospect pedigree will continue to earn him opportunities for at least the next few years, but he’s turning 25 next month, and the clock is starting to tick a little bit here.
Ricky Tiedemann, P, Blue Jays
This one feels a bit unfair since his tumble down the dynasty starting pitching rankings is mostly injury-related. The 21-year-old top pitching prospect missed time earlier this season due to shoulder and elbow issues before leaving an outing for Triple-A Buffalo a couple of weeks ago with forearm tightness. As of last week, Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters Tiedemann was headed for a second opinion on his left elbow, but isn’t believed to be dealing with any structural damage.
Even if he’s able to make it back before the season wraps up, it’s been a disastrous, injury-marred campaign for one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, as he’s been limited to just 17 1/3 innings over eight outings so far. After so much missed development time, it’s impossible to put him among the upper-echelon pitching prospects in the game until we see him stay healthy for at least a few months. There’s an argument to be made that he’s an excellent buy-low candidate, but that’s contingent on him staying healthy and the stuff bouncing back to previous levels.
Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals
Here’s an oversimplification: Where is the over-the-fence power? At 22 years old, dynasty managers aren’t throwing in the towel on Walker, especially from a long-term standpoint. However, this entire year has been a bit confusing since he’s homered just four times across 61 games for Triple-A Memphis after going homerless in 20 contests to open the year in the big leagues. It’s a bizarre development since Walker hit 16 round-trippers in 117 games in the majors last year after posting a 19-homer campaign at Double-A Springfield as a 20-year-old phenom back in 2022.
What makes this even more compelling is that he made a conscious effort during the offseason to adjust his swing mechanics to focus on driving the ball with consistent hard contact. It clearly hasn’t worked and it’s led to a precipitous decline in every Fantrax Top 500 Dynasty Rankings update over the last few months. We’re not remotely close to throwing in the towel, but it’s difficult to figure out what’s going wrong at the moment and how he gets back to elite prospect status again.
Spencer Jones, OF, Yankees
There are plenty of hitters who have struck out a ton and still found success at the highest level, but it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Jones can make much of an impact down the road if he’s going to strike out nearly 40 percent of the time at the Double-A level. The 23-year-old slugger hasn’t been a total non-factor this season with 10 homers and 18 stolen bases through 75 games for Double-A Somerset, but the plate skills are questionable to the point where we’re not sure he’s going to keep his head above water at the highest level.
The concern here is that Jones winds up as a Joey Gallo-esque batting average anchor, which severely limits his fantasy baseball ceiling. He’s supremely talented, and there’s still time for his plate skills to improve, but it’s always going to be a challenge considering his massive frame. His dynasty stock has absolutely taken a hit this season, and it’s not going to improve until we see some progress and improved swing decisions in the upper minors.
Victor Scott II, OF, Cardinals
This one is disappointing, but not completely unexpected. Scott clearly wasn’t ready when the Cardinals were pretty much forced to carry him on their season-opening roster following injuries to Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson. Yet, the 23-year-old speedster hasn’t fared much better this season at Triple-A Memphis, batting .207 (52-for-256) with three homers and 27 stolen bases across 65 games so far.
The blazing speed and stolen base prowess is going to make him an impact fantasy contributor at some point down the road, but the fact that he appears to have stalled out as a hitter at the moment is definitely alarming. The talent is there for Scott to improve and become a fantasy standout, but his first-half performance in the upper minors has raised more concerns than provided answers regarding his long-term outlook.