One game away from away from the completion of Week 11 is the perfect time to talk about what comes next for your dynasty squad. Barring major injuries, we know what roles players are locked into and have seen some level of turnover at the more unstable jobs around the league (Jones/Williams, Edwards/Collins, Cobb/MVS). We’re now into the stretch run and only two weeks away from the fantasy playoffs. As a dynasty owners it’s important to never be content and to never… EVER sit still. Let’s talk about some actionable dynasty strategy you should be aware of at the business end of the 2018 fantasy NFL season.
First things first. The most important quality a dynasty gamer can possess is honesty. Honesty about the realities of your league, leaguemate tendencies, and the true values of the players you have as well as the values of players you covet are all essential parts of crafting your own particular dynasty strategy. Let’s discuss a few key steps to begin, sustain, or continue your assault on your league championship:
General Dynasty Strategy:
Perhaps the most important takeaway, however, is the need to be critical about the strengths and weaknesses of the field. These are a few tips to construct your own dynasty strategy.
Look over your scoring and roster settings. Examine the league leaders’ teams to understand what wins in your particular league. What types of players form the base of the top teams? How do they use their flexes? Are TE’s commonly used in flex positions? RBs? WRs? Are people streaming at QB, TE, K, or DST? Are multiple pass catching backs used? Are most top receivers boom/bust plays or are they consistent albeit unspectacular target-getters? Are the top teams a little older generally or do they have youth on their side?
Compare your findings with your team. Do you lack at any particular position group compared to the league’s best? Do you have too many floor plays and not enough ceiling ones? Or vice versa. Is your TE or WR group older or younger than average?
Decide on a strength. Does your team have three top-24 WRs, two top-12 RBs, etc. Decide on what your strength is and trade away surplus talent to supplement areas you are weaker at. Age becomes a factor when deciding what to do if you are a title challenger, sneaking into the playoff push, or are in the midst of a full-blown rebuild.
Know the draft. To decide how to best use your limited resources, take a look at the next year’s draft . WR heavy? Lots of quality RB prospects? Decide what is and isn’t likely to be available to you on draft day with the knowledge of your approximate draft order. Ex. If you need RBs this season and beyond you should be moving your 2019 picks for them as you are unlikely to find much help in this particular draft. If you are in need of WRs in 2019 hold on tight. Understand that drafts are usually the cheapest ways to acquire top talents at your positions of need but don’t go hoping for something that isn’t there. Be mindful of approximate hit rates:
1st 50%
2nd 33%
3rd 7%
4th 1%
Understand contracts and team roles. Make sure you know where your team is in terms of contracts and do your due diligence projecting what players might be going into different situations in free agency the next season. Start to make plays for productive players in the last year of their contracts or players that have shown themselves to be efficient but haven’t commanded a significant opportunity share through their first deal. Sell inefficient players who have produced almost by default on massive opportunity shares or specific team roles that could find themselves in much different circumstances next season (ex. Devin Funchess, Golden Tate).
Contender Tips:
If you find yourself to be one of the top 25% of teams in your league, you should be looking to fill in the cracks before the playoffs arrive. Older vets should be targets, as should players in murky circumstances in the near future (see Lamar Miller and every other RB situation Le’Veon Bell could ruin in 2019). Draft picks should be your currency, as picking near the bottom of the round isn’t likely to quickly fix your weaknesses within your contending window.
Target teams already out of playoff contention, as they will likely be most interested in draft picks. Also try to compile any bench talents and sell them to teams just out of the playoff projections. Understand that a “first round pick” now sounds a lot more appealing than “the last pick of the first round” come draft season. Don’t be afraid to trade rookies or other young players for proven talent if you can reasonably expect that the player you receive will serve your team well through your run. It is time to sell the farm if need be. The point is to win after all.
Playoff Bubble Tips:
If you find yourself a win or two in or out of playoff contention you should be buying at the trade deadline. However, you should be doing so in moderation. At this point I wouldn’t be afraid to sell even productive veterans if the right offer presents itself. Keep an eye toward the long term though. It’s more important to set your team up for a brighter future than it is to battle it out with teams you’re more than 1-2 pieces away from truly competing with. Fix a position group at a time and create a balanced squad you can then supplement with stars if you hit on your draft picks. In this instance it’s all about the quantity vs. quality and seeing how many players you can get to stick to plug your team’s holes.
Once you’ve built a solid group you can begin to compile assets for those few stars needed to take you over the top in future years. But don’t make that deal just yet. Preserve your own pick and look to make forward thinking sales as contenders get desperate to add to their squads for the playoffs. Enjoy the run, but keep focused on next season.
Total Rebuild:
Sell. Seriously, burn it down. The worst position a team can find themselves in is being too bad to truly compete, but too good to get the premier draft choices. So host your very own fire sale. While busting is a worry at any spot in the draft, it is important to at least have the leverage on draft day to have other players clawing for your pick to grab a slot they’ve already put a name to. Sell every asset you cannot reasonably expect to be of use to you in three seasons as their value is only likely to depreciate from here on out. The only untouchable players should be foundation pieces on your team under the age of 25. Look out for mitigating circumstances when making those determinations however.
How did a player produce? Was everyone hurt (Evan Engram 2017)? Was there some kind of statistical anomaly involved (Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson 2017)? Was there just no alternative (Alex Collins, Lamar Miller, James White). Project what these players would be if they had some competition and make a determination on what role is realistic for them moving forward. If a lot of things need to go in their favor in order to maintain their level of production then sell at peak value. You want to find cornerstones at this stage of team building. Every other asset is expendable.
Selling to acquire draft capital is the cheapest way to buy top talents. If an opportunity presents itself to buy young injured players at or at decreased value do so while you can afford not having the extra few points. Both having a long term (3-yr) mindset in all of your decisions and scouring the waiver wire for recently hyped players who can be packaged for more stable assets next season are sound dynasty strategies.
That’s all for now but keep these ideas in mind when planning your dynasty strategy for late 2018 and beyond. Let me know if I’ve missed anything you might be wondering about.
Want a head start on all the fantasy relevant contracts and player situations in one spot?
Be sure to check out my Dynasty Composite WR Scores by clicking HERE
My Dynasty Composite RB Scores be found by clicking HERE
Agree? Think I’m nuts? Have a specific player or circumstance you’d like me to discuss on next week’s edition? Let me know on twitter @FF_Wonderkid or ask with #WonderQs. Thanks for reading.
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