If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck. To translate, a good player is a good player. It might be Week 1 whacky-time real soon, but it always pays to stick with the herd. Backing yourself as a fantasy genius is fun, but nothing good ever came from making un-edu-macated guesses.
Unless, of course, I do it for you.
Okay, these guesses are educated – kinda. Life is too short to always do what you’re told, but if these bold predictions fail to actually, y’know, come true, make sure you remember to forget to tweet me. Anyway, in no particular order, here are some fantasy storylines that may come true this season. Emphasis on the word “may.”
Breshad Perriman Finishes With More Yards/Receptions Than Mike Wallace
Mike Wallace caught 10 catches for 20-plus yards last season, while Breshad Perriman caught plenty of z’s as he missed most of the year. This one may not be as bold as it is risky, especially with Perriman already experiencing hamstring soreness, but there is reason for optimism. So if you’ll bear with me, I’d like to get deep for a second.
Perriman put up 164 yards on deep targets last season, an area that used to be reserved for Steve Smith. Joe Flacco was once a deep-ball guru prior to the Marc Trestman era in Baltimore, and if he reverts back to his 2015 form, there may be a lot more deep passes on offer for Perriman to cash in. Say what you will about Flacco, but his stats tell the tale: He put up 3,247 yards in the shotgun last year and completed 65% of his passes. If he’s given more leeway from new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg to unleash downfield, Perriman is likely to put up some big numbers.
[the_ad id=”384″]The final factor I like here is Jeremy Maclin. The Ravens have found a solid replacement in the slot, and one that will certainly draw some defensive attention. Leaving Perriman to his own devices on the outside could be deadly, and so could passing on him in the later rounds of your draft. He should still be available by the ninth or tenth round, and in fact, so should Wallace. Both will see their share of targets, but after perhaps the most impressive offseason among wide receivers in Ravens camp, Perriman could easily slip into the No. 1 role and dominate.
Eli Manning Completes 400 or More Passes For First Time in His Career
There’s a lot of trees to throw to in New York now. I’ve jumped all over the Brandon Marshall bandwagon (more on that later), but thanks to sheer receiver volume alone, Eli could actually put up his best season to date.
In his 12 years as the starter, Manning has managed 30 TDs only three times in a single season. It will take a major cut down on turnovers to see a repeat of that forecast, but it could be argued that this is the best bunch of receivers Manning has had in his entire career. There are the old faces of Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard to rely on, and of course, Marshall adds his own red zone benefits. The addition of Evan Engram at the tight end position, though, now that’s something.
Engram is built like a receiver and should help out in the blocking game immensely. The Giants’ offensive line allowed 29- on Manning last year, but even so, it wasn’t enough to cause any damage. In fact, Manning hasn’t missed a game in his 12-year career, and since we’re playing a game centered around stats, health, reliability and four highly talented receivers should equal plenty of completions one way or another.
Brandon Marshall Has a Better Year Than Terrelle Pryor
The case for Marshall is easy. He’s posted six 100-catch seasons in his career, eight 1,000-yard seasons, and also has four seasons of double-digit touchdowns to his name. So what happened last year? It’s the Jets, geez, give the guy a break.
Seriously, though, I think the one stat that always wows me with Marshall is his 89-yard, 1-TD performance vs. Richard Sherman last year. He then backed it up with 59 yards against Patrick Peterson, and even though Marshall rackedup up a lousy 788 yards in 2016, he was still ranked seventh among receivers in red-zone targets.
Pryor, on the other hand, could experience some growing pains. It’s been evident all preseason with not only the lack of chemistry between Pryor and Kirk Cousins, but also the handful of missed throws. I don’t like to put a ton of stock into exhibition games, but I do value the fact that, since 2008, 10 receivers/tight ends have moved teams after posting a 1,000-yard season, and nine of them experienced a serious decrease in production.
The rapport with Cousins will no doubt ferment, and since he did post 77 receptions on a craptastic Browns team, Pryor has shown his resiliency. Still, the pressure and expectations of a big year for the Redskins could hang heavy.
Dak Prescott Throws 10 INT’s
Is it reasonable to assume, without any solid evidence, that Prescott will regress a little this year?
Dez Bryant is healthy, and on the back of a 5.0% TD rate last season, Prescott certainly has what it takes to resume where he left off. The one thing I keep coming back to, though, is Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys ranked third in the league in rushing attempts last year, and first in passing completions. Take away Zeke for the first seven weeks, and you’re left with a lot of pressure being placed on Dak, and that’s not even mentioning the chemistry rebuild with Bryant that needs to happen.
Bryant missed a quarter of last season and still finished with 796 yards and eight TDs. He did catch only 52% of Dak’s passes, mind you, a number that needs to increase drastically if the Cowboys are going to throw the ball more. Rounding this prediction out is also the fact that the Giants and the Eagles led the league in interceptions last year. Just a little somethin’-somethin’ to keep in mind.
Jamaal Charles Rushes For 700 Yards
In your wildest dreams, right?
Charles was released by the Chiefs in February because he failed a physical. On Saturday night against the Packers, though, physical is exactly how he looked. Charles rushed for 27 yards on four attempts, and while the knee is still a huge sore point for fantasy owners (literally), it looked pretty darn good carving shapes around Green Bay’s defense.
Charles obviously has to fight for carries, but the elusiveness is still there. It’s never been a question of skill, more a question of health, and so far you really can’t complain. Charles could easily make life hard for C.J. Anderson owners, and if you asked me who I’d rather give the ball to if I were the coach of the Broncos, I’d choose Charles over Trevor Siemian all day long.
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