The introduction of Statcast in MLB ballparks has revolutionized front-office player evaluation, and it also makes a difference for dynasty baseball managers. Now that we’re a little over 10 games into the 2023 season, let’s take a look at players who are hitting the ball harder compared to last year and what this means for their dynasty values.
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Early Dynasty Buys Based on Exit Velocity
Esteury Ruiz Leads All of MLB in Average Exit Velocity Increase
The Oakland Athletics acquired centerfielder Esteury Ruiz from the Milwaukee Brewers in the offseason, after Milwaukee themselves acquired Ruiz from the San Diego Padres in a deal that sent closer Josh Hader out west in August 2022.
Ruiz was a widely debated prospect in the Padres organization who wasn’t overly loved by traditional scouts (Fangraphs gives him a 35 hit tool, for example), while he lies outside of the Top 100 on all major prospect evaluation services like Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and The Athletic.
What Ruiz does have though is elite performance in the upper minors, Double-A and Triple-A, impressive plate discipline that has held at the major league level so far in 2023 — and of course, his speed. In 114 games last year at two Padres stops (AA, AAA) and one Milwaukee stop (AAA), Ruiz hit .332/.447/.526 with 66 walks to 94 strikeouts, and 85 steals.
He graded out at 98th percentile sprint speed in the MLB cup of coffee he received last year, and in 2023 thus far he’s at 98th percentile sprint speed, so it’s not just Ruiz taking advantage of poor MILB catchers or something.
The question with Ruiz is simply: will he hit and get on base enough to be a valuable dynasty asset and generate base-stealing opportunities?
Ruiz Has Increased His Avg. Exit Velocity By 10 Miles Per Hour in 2023
Below is a chart of Ruiz’s average exit velocity and max exit velocities in the MLB in 2022 compared to this year, and his plate discipline. Ruiz has literally added 10 mph to his average exit velocity and improved on his max by 5 mph already in just 36 at-bats, while cutting his strikeout rate to just 16.7% (top 50 in the MLB) and a solid walk rate (7.1%).
Esteury Ruiz Exit Velocity Data (in Mph)
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | +/- Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Exit Velocity (mph) | 73.0 | 83.0 | +10.0 |
| Max Exit Velocity (mph) | 100.2 | 105.0 | +4.8 |
| Strikeout Rate (%) | 19.4 | 16.7 | -2.7 |
| Walk Rate (%) | 2.8 | 7.1 | +4.3 |
Ruiz’s average exit velocity still ranks in the bottom 1% of all big leaguers, but if his BABIP normalizes somewhere in the .310 range for someone with his speed skillset, an OBP above .350 will give him enough base stealing opportunities to lead the AL. Fantrax projections actually predicted him to finish second in all of MLB in stolen bases with 37 in 311 at-bats, something ZiPS (MLB projected rank 1st, 36 steals in 460 at bats) sees as well.
It’s encouraging to see a hitter who can make a difference in such a rare category like steals improve both the quality of his contact more than any other big leaguer and do so while improving his plate discipline. Ruiz is actually swinging less this year (43.8% swing rate) versus last year (52.6%), so this looks like a meaningful approach change. If his zone contact rate (77%) can recover to last year’s levels (83%), his average has upside from his .237 ZiPS projection as well.
Research by Russell Carleton shows the earliest metrics to “stabilize” in a hitter’s career are strikeout and walk rates, and it may take up to two seasons for average to stabilize. Ruiz’s discipline improvements could be here to stay and any dynasty managers should consider buying him if his price is cheap (say, for a short-term holds or saves guy) at the moment.
MJ Melendez Has Improved His Batted Ball Data Significantly Despite a Slow Start
Another hitter who has improved his quality of contact early in the season is Kansas City Royals outfielder-catcher hybrid MJ Melendez.
At the moment he is hitting just .162/.279/.297, but the Royals continue to trot him out in the No. 1 or 2 spot in their lineup for likely two reasons. Melendez generated a 12.4% walk rate in 534 plate appearances at the big league level last year in his rookie season, good for 13th in all of baseball, and he regularly rocked double-digit walk rates in the minors including in his 41-homer season in AA and AAA in 2021.
Take a look at the improvement Melendez has shown this year in terms of how he is hitting the ball.
MJ Melendez Statcast Data, MLB Percentile Ranks (Per Baseball Savant)
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Average Exit Velocity | 81st | 99th |
| Max Exit Velocity | 71st | 95th |
| Hard Hit Rate | 69th | 100th |
| xBA | 31st | 67th |
| xSLG | 58th | 93rd |
| Barrel Rate | 72nd | 98th |
| Strikeout Rate | 27th | 2nd |
| Walk Rate | 92nd | 78th |
All of that data comes courtesy of Baseball Savant, indicating after a solid rookie year where Melendez barreled the ball more than the average hitter and generally was in the upper quartile of power hitters by exit velocities and hard hit rate (balls hit over 95 mph), Melendez is now on the Mount Rushmore of exit velocity and barrel data while sporting an expected batting average (per Savant) of .270. The shift ban may be helping Melendez, who bats left-handed, as well.
If you believe Melendez can recover his current 39.5% strikeout rate to near last year’s levels (24.5%), he is an obvious dynasty league buy and may be someone dynasty managers are considering parting with given his poor early season slash line. Melendez’s swing decisions have stayed the same in 2023 so he hasn’t changed his approach, he’s simply making far less contact when he does swing in the zone. Last year he had an 81.3% zone contact rate, while this year in a small sample size he has a 64.3% zone contact rate.
It’s difficult to think Melendez would suddenly get that much worse at making contact when he does decide to swing, and a bet on a bounceback could come relatively cheap (and you get a catcher who has outfield eligibility in many leagues).
Nolan Gorman’s Swing Change Has Paid Off
It was documented in the offseason that St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Nolan Gorman worked on hitting elevated fastballs after pitchers began to exploit the weakness last season. Gorman was a highly touted prospect with 70-grade raw power across most evaluation services and 16 home runs in just 43 games at AAA last year before his major league call-up. Gorman was demoted in September after struggling to hit the aforementioned pitch (high fastballs).
“Mechanically, the swing is flatter and that helps at the top of the zone and being able to get to the fastball that’s up. It’s different than last year when he kind of had that uphill move where he was collapsing and coming up through the zone,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told MLB.com in Spring Training.
So, notable swing improvement: check. Early season results for Gorman, check.
In nine 2023 games, Gorman is slashing .321/.457/.714 with three home runs and he has improved his average exit velocity from 89.2 mph to 93.5 mph. That ranks 29th in baseball tied with Shohei Ohtani. If Gorman is still considered a dynasty asset ranked outside of the top 300 (where he was on most lists in the offseason), try buying him from that manager.
Corbin Carroll is Playing Better Than His .233 Average Suggests
Corbin Carroll is tied for second in the MLB in steals (5 in just 13 games), and signed an 8-year, $111 million contract in Spring Training that locked him up in Arizona until the 2030s. What’s flying under the radar about the former No. 1 or No. 2 prospect by most evaluation services is his notable strength improvements early this season.
Carroll ranks in the 56th percentile of average exit velocity per Baseball Savant, a notable improvement to 89.6 mph compared to the 85.8 mph mark he showed in his rookie year sample size of 32 games. Carroll’s current batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .267 is significantly lower than the .334 mark ZiPS projected from him this year, suggesting that if that improves as the weather heats up, Carroll could flirt with a .280/.330/.480 line and legitimately steal 50 bases.
If you know a dynasty owner who is frustrated with his current .233 batting average and would consider swapping Carroll for a known commodity with similar dynasty rankings and lower career upside (Randy Arozarena, Nathaniel Lowe, Daulton Varsho, Andres Gimenez are examples), consider making the trade now.