The first article in this mini-series took a look at second-half studs that might be being pushed up draft boards. The end of the season is the freshest in our minds. So naturally, those who performed well enter 2025 with higher expectations than those who struggled to end the season. Sometimes there are tangible changes, like with Lawrence Butler, that can explain why a player improved dramatically. Other times, it was just a lucky hot streak. Well, the same is true for those who struggled to end 2024. This article looks at four players who struggled in the second half of the 2024 season and analyzes how fantasy baseball managers should value them for the upcoming season.
2024’s Second Half Duds
Brice Turang – 2B, MIL
Coming through the Brewers’ Minor League system, Brice Turang was viewed as an extremely polished hitter. Turang posted strong walk rates with excellent contact metrics. What really stood out for fantasy managers was his speed. Turang was an elite base stealer throughout his Minor League career. This carried over into his Major League debut in 2023 but fantasy managers left that season with more questions than answers. Turang’s speed was nice but with a .218 average and a 61 wRC+, there were doubts he would be able to hit enough to maintain a starting role on a Major League team.
Turang was given another opportunity to start in 2024 and ran with it. He came out of the gates firing on all cylinders and maintained his success throughout most of the first half. At the end of June, Turang was slashing .292/.354/.417 with a 117 wRC+. With the drastic improvements to his batting average, Turang already cleared his stolen base total from 2023. He had stolen 28 bases and finished the first half with 30. Turang appeared to be a reliable source of average/on-base percentage and stolen bases making him a solid fantasy asset.
Flip to the second half and suddenly, Turang looked more like the 2023 version than what we saw in the first half. Turang hit just .220/.377/.387 in the back half with a 58 wRC+. The stolen bases were still nice (20), but that was the only thing Turang was contributing from a fantasy perspective.
Turang’s profile is BABIP-dependent. What does that mean? Turang makes contact at a very high rate. He does not walk a ton but is going to put the ball in play and try to use his speed to generate runs. Similar to a toned-down Luis Arraez with more speed. The issue with this is two-fold. First, Turang hits the ball on the ground a ton. His average launch angle on the season was just 6.1 degrees. The league-wide batting average on ground balls last season was .249. Turang hit a ground ball over 52% of the time. The other issue is that Turang rarely impacts the ball. He finished with a barrel rate of just 2.4% and an average exit velocity of 87.0 mph. When the BABIP gods are working in Turang’s favor things are okay. He posted a .342 BABIP through June. His BABIP after June was just .257.
If you are targeting Turang in your drafts, do not expect more than solid stolen base production. Turang has great speed, and his defense should keep him in the lineup most days. However, his inability to hit for power and BABIP dependency will likely keep his batting average in a constant state of flux. He is going to hurt your team in the home run department and also has significant platoon risk. His wRC+ against lefties was just 65 compared to the 93 he posted against righties. Turang is a fine end-of-draft pick if you are light on stolen bases but should not be viewed as more than that. He is currently going as 2B8, which is far too rich for his true value.
CJ Abrams – SS, WAS
CJ Abrams had one of the strangest seasons in 2024. The former top-prospect built upon a strong 2023 season with excellent results early on. At the end of April, Abrams was slashing .295/.373/.619. Many in the fantasy baseball community were referring to him as one of the top players in the sport. In dynasty, his value rose quickly. His ability to hit for power with elite speed and also being just 23 years old had the baseball community clamoring for more.
The rest of his first half was uneven, but he entered the break with 15 homers, 15 stolen bases, and a 129 wRC+. The All-Star Break seems to be where the wheels fell completely off. Abrams was terrible in the second half. He posted a .203/.260/.326 slash with just five home runs. His season came to an abrupt end on September 20 after Abrams stayed out all night at a casino after a loss. Early on in 2024, the Nationals, and fantasy managers, felt they had a star on their hands. Now, there are more questions than ever. Which Abrams is the real Abrams?
The one thing fantasy managers should have confidence in is Abrams’ stolen bases. Abrams stole 15 bases in the first half and still managed to steal 16 in the second half despite the drop in his numbers. His 81st-percentile sprint speed should allow him to continue stealing bases at a high clip.
As far as batting average, Abrams’ season-long numbers have been incredibly consistent. Despite fluctuation throughout the year, Abrams hit .245 in 2023 and .246 last season. His mediocre batting average comes down to bad swing decisions. Abrams chased 35.4% of the time last season. Specifically, Abrams struggled to lay off and handle breaking balls. Abrams chased breaking pitches over 40% of the time last season and hit just .184 with a .314 slugging percentage. Take a look at Abrams’ process graph against breaking pitches:
Yikes. Pitchers, of course, realized this and started to throw Abrams more breaking pitches as the season moved along. After seeing just 30.7% of breaking pitches in March/April, Abrams saw 40% breaking balls in August/September. At the end of April, Abrams was striking out 16.8% of the time. His strikeout rate jumped to 25% from August forward, and his weak contact rate increased significantly.
For Abrams to bounce back to what we saw in the first half of last year, he will need to make significant improvements against breaking pitches. If not, Major League pitchers will continue to attack his weak spot. The good news is that Abrams is only 24 years old and has plenty of time to continue developing. At worst, he is going to provide stolen bases and decent pop. At best, he has the potential to turn into a game-changing fantasy asset. Being drafted as SS9, his draft price is high. Abrams should be viewed as a high-potential option, but fantasy managers should keep in mind he is far from a finished product.
Adley Rutschman – C, BAL
Adley Rutschman has long been viewed as a generational talent. Since the Orioles took him first overall back in 2019, the fantasy community has viewed him as an offense-first catcher with elite upside. 2024 marked Rutschman’s third full season of baseball. Unfortunately for fantasy baseball managers, it was his worst. After expectations of a third-year breakout were set, Rutschman regressed in almost every major category. His name still holds plenty of fantasy value and hype. At this point, is Rutschman more name value than actual production?
The strange part about Rutschman’s 2024 season is that his struggles were not consistent throughout the year. At the end of the first half, Rutschman was putting himself nearly MVP consideration. At the All-Star Break, Rutschman was up to 16 home runs and was hitting .275 while catching every day. He was barreling the ball up more than ever with good line drive rates. Then, in the second half, the barrels just disappeared. Rutschman barreled just five balls up in the second half. For reference, this is the same number of barrels in the second half as Max Schuemann hit. Rutschman hit just three homers the entire second half with a .207 batting average.
Playing catcher is a grueling task. While the Orioles gave Rutschman plenty of days to DH, he was still in the lineup nearly every day. No catcher has accumulated more plate appearances since the start of 2023 as Rutschman has. Despite speculation, Rutschman has insisted he was not injured in the second half, but it is fair to attribute some of his struggles to general fatigue. The team made fixing that a priority this off-season when they signed Gary Sanchez. Fantasy managers should not expect Rutschman to be in the lineup for 148 games again next season.
There is no real explanation for why Rutschman suddenly was unable to barrel up the ball. Sometimes, hitters go through slumps like this and need a good reset in the off-season. The big takeaway for fantasy managers is that Rutschman may not be the generational offensive talent many proclaimed him to be. Reaching 35 home runs is a stretch but fantasy managers should be able to rely on 20-25 moving forward.
The other good news is that the rest of his profile still looked excellent despite his slump. Rutschman continued to hit line drives at a high rate with a strikeout rate below 15%. The big difference was a .229 BABIP in the second half compared to a .299 BABIP in the first half. This should rebound in 2025. Despite his struggles to end the season, Rutschman is still being drafted as the third catcher off the board. He should rebound in 2025 although you are not going to get any discount on him come draft day.
Brandon Nimmo – OF, NYM
Brandon Nimmo has been one of the more underappreciated players in baseball for the past several years. Nimmo has shed the durability concerns he dealt with early in his career and has continued to add power as he has aged. Nimmo was key to helping the Mets turn around their season, but his season was filled with inconsistencies. After starting slow, Nimmo caught fire toward the end of May and put together another solid first half. He wound up hitting 16 home runs in the first half and entered the All-Star Break with a 133 wRC+.
The good in Nimmo’s season seemed to disappear during the second half. As the Mets surged, Nimmo struggled. He wound up hitting just .190 with seven home runs during the back half of the season. Considering Nimmo turns 32 prior to the start of next season, many are fearing that his best days are now behind him.
Looking at Nimmo’s season as a whole, his BABIP sticks out. Through the first eight seasons of his career, Nimmo owned a .333 career BABIP. He had never posted a BABIP below .293. Last season, it was down at .267. This was especially true in the second half when Nimmo posted a .222 BABIP. Although Nimmo’s barrel rate was down, nothing else in his profile sticks out. Nimmo continued to hit the ball with strong exit velocities with a solid launch angle. The answer to Nimmo’s batting average bottoming out could simply be bad luck.
Even in what will be his age-32 season, Nimmo still should be viewed as a reliable fantasy asset. He has some of the best plate discipline in baseball, hits the ball hard, and bats toward the top of the lineup, which is great for his counting stats. Fantasy managers probably should not expect Nimmo to steal 15 bases again in 2025, but the rest of his profile is very safe. His second-half struggles should not roll into 2025.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.