Certain parts of the season stick out more in the minds of fantasy baseball managers. Opening Day instantly comes to mind. The anticipation, the excitement, and the expectations are all leading up to that one day. Similarly, the end of the season is equally important. Players that carry fantasy teams to the playoffs get an extra boost during draft season the following year. Is this recency bias? Were the second-half breakouts legit? That is the question fantasy managers face and one that this article hopes to help determine.
2024 Second Half Studs
Lawrence Butler – OF, ATH
Lawrence Butler was viewed as toolsy but unreliable throughout his time in the Minor Leagues. Butler was taken in the sixth round of the 2018 draft with lots of raw talent. His size (6’3”) gives him obvious potential, but his raw baseball instincts and speed excited scouts. He worked his way slowly through the Minor Leagues prior to debuting in 2023. His first stint in the Majors did not go as planned. He hit just .211 with a 27.1% strikeout rate and inferior plate discipline metrics.
The start of 2024 was not much different. Butler won a roster spot with the Athletics out of Spring Training but struggled to get things going at the plate. Across 121 plate appearances to start the season, Butler slashed .179/.281/.274. The Athletics felt they had no option but to send Butler back down to Triple-A to work things out. At this point, fantasy baseball managers had all but given up hope. A struggling player on a bad team with bad contact skills was not somebody worth paying much attention to.
Butler did not set the world on fire in Triple-A, but with the Athletics rebuilding, he got another opportunity in the Major Leagues. Butler was recalled on June 18 and looked like a different hitter. From July 2 forward, Butler slashed .302/.346/.597. His power and speed helped carry fantasy managers to championships. He hit 20 homers and stole 14 bases. His 600 PA pace over that span was 40 home runs and 28 steals. Those are elite fantasy numbers. So, is this legit? Should fantasy managers be buying into Butler entering 2025?
The answer is a resounding yes. Butler has always had elite fantasy potential. His batted ball data is excellent. Butler consistently barrels up the ball and posted an average exit velocity of 91 mph last season. The real reason to buy into Butler is the improvements to his strikeout rate. Strikeouts have plagued Butler throughout his professional career. However, from July 2 forward, Butler struck out just 20.6% of the time. PitcherList’s catch-all metric Process+ does an excellent job of illustrating just how drastic the improvements Butler made were:
This is a good enough reason as any to buy into Butler for 2025, but we can get more granular than that. The part of the game Butler really struggled with was laying off pitches out of the strike zone. In particular, Butler struggled to lay off anything that was not a fastball. In the graph below, you can see just how much Butler improved in laying off breaking pitches:
Butler’s success in the second half of 2024 was not just a player getting hot for a couple of months. Fantasy managers should have confidence entering 2025 that Butler’s success was no fluke. The improvements he made were tangible. Now, Butler and the A’s are going to be playing their home games in a hitter-friendly Triple-A stadium. With Butler’s power, there should be no surprise if he reaches 50 home runs in that ballpark. With his speed, power, and newfound plate discipline, the sky is the limit for Butler in 2025. Buy in at his draft price with confidence you are getting a reliable fantasy asset.
Gavin Lux- 2B/SS, CIN
Fantasy baseball managers have been waiting for Gavin Lux to break out for years. Lux ranked as baseball’s top prospect just a few seasons ago. With a sweet left-handed swing, Lux put up huge numbers in the Minor Leagues. Back in 2019, Lux hit .347 with 26 homers and 10 steals between Double-A and Triple-A. Lux seemed to have power, speed, and a near-elite hit tool. Unfortunately, it has never seemed to work out for Lux at the Major League level. He debuted back in 2019 and has battled injuries, inconsistent playing time, and offensive struggles each year since. Entering 2024, Gavin Lux felt identical to Jo Adell. Prospect pedigree, big expectations, and small flashes with no consistency.
The allure of a starting role on the Dodgers sucked fantasy baseball managers back in once again entering 2024. Lux was a popular sleeper pick with the hopes he would finally put everything together. Just like in previous seasons, Lux struggled. At the end of April, Lux had a 31 wRC+. At the end of May, his wRC+ still sat at only 60. In June it was at 62. You get the picture. Lux was still struggling to produce anything relevant for fantasy managers.
Just as fantasy managers were writing him off for good, Lux broke out. He looked like a different hitter in the second half, hitting six homers and slashing .301/.390/.489. Now, the team traded him to Cincinnati where he will get to play his home games in Great American Ballpark. Is this just what Lux needed to finally reach his ceiling?
The biggest bright spot in Lux’s breakout was the improvement in his batted ball data. Since making it to the Major Leagues, Lux struggled to impact the ball significantly. His Minor League power seemed to be a product of hitter-friendly Minor League environments more than true above-average pop. However, in the second half, Lux posted an average exit velocity over 90 mph and saw his barrel rate jump to 9.4%. If you look at Lux’s rolling power chart from last season, you can see the significant improvements he made as the season moved along:
The power boost was great. The rest of Lux’s numbers also look great, but there is more than meets the eye. The jump in Lux’s numbers came with a change in his profile. Early in his career, Lux seemed to be waiting for the perfect pitch. When that did not work, Lux seemed to have thrown everything out the window. Lux grew more aggressive as the season moved along. As Lux became more aggressive, His contact rate dropped significantly. Looking at his rolling contact chart, it is almost the inverse of his rolling power chart.
For fantasy managers, Lux still hit over .300 during the second half. There was no complaining about his contact skills with an average that high. However, Lux also ran a .388 BABIP in the second half. If you take 50 points off of that, Lux would have been a .251 hitter with six homers and two steals. Not quite the same hitter.
That brings me to my next point. Even with the move to Cincinnati, what is the upside here? Lux put together career numbers in the second half last season but still would have been on pace for just 18 homers and six stolen bases. Those are fine numbers, but nothing game-changing. Lux is not a young prospect anymore who is figuring things out. He is 27 years old and needs to be accepted for who he is. Fantasy managers should avoid getting caught up in his second-half numbers and trade to the Reds. Lux is a fine Major League player who lacks the upside fantasy managers desire.
Victor Robles- OF, SEA
Sticking with the theme of former top prospects; Victor Robles put together a monster second half in Seattle. After being released by Washington just 14 games into the season, Robles’ Major League career was hanging on by a thread. Seattle was in need of some outfield depth and signed Robles likely as a defensive/bench outfielder.
Injuries forced Robles into the lineup and he did not look back. In 77 games with Seattle, Robles hit .328 while continuing to provide excellent defense. For fantasy managers, he stole 30 bases which is where he generated most of his value. The Mariners were so impressed that they handed Robles a 2-year contract signaling their faith in him moving forward. Should fantasy managers have the same faith in Robles for 2025?
Starting with the good, Robles is an excellent base stealer. His 600 PA pace while with Seattle was 69 stolen bases. When you look at Robles’ speed, it is not what you would think. Robles is athletic and has good base-stealing abilities, but his speed is not much better than the league average. His instincts give him an edge but expecting Robles to steal more than 35 bases in a season is unrealistic.
The other issue with the majority of Robles’ fantasy value being tied to stolen bases, is his inability to maintain a starting role. Yes, Seattle signed Robles to a two-year extension but can he continue performing enough offensively to stay in the lineup? Robles’ sudden ability to hit .328 last season smells fishy. A .388 BABIP carried Robles’ batting average despite exit velocities that were well below average. As Robles’ BABIP drops back down to realistic levels, his offensive production will become average at best. Plus, Robles has a strong track record of struggling at the Major League level and Process+ does not believe anything in Robles’ profile is above-average.
Robles is a great story to root for. He has found a home in Seattle and revived his career. Fantasy managers are likely to see the 30 stolen bases and remember how great he was down the stretch last year. What they should not forget are the 7 years before that he struggled. He is not a reliable option for fantasy managers entering 2025.
Corbin Carroll- OF, ARI
Corbin Carroll was considered one of the biggest busts in fantasy early on last season. Coming off a monster season in 2023, Carroll was a consensus first round pick last year but got off to a slow start. After the game on July 10th, Carroll owned a .209/.296/.317 slash with just three home runs. The Diamondbacks were starting to platoon Carroll against lefties and fantasy managers were wondering if they should drop Carroll from their team. Safe to say, Carroll’s value seemed to be at an all-time low.
Then, like a switch flipped, everything changed. Carroll was a different player. He hit two home runs in the game on July 13 and carried that success over into the second half. Carroll’s second-half slash line was .258/.351/.568. While his batting average was still lower than many expected, Carroll suffered from poor luck during his hot streak. Carroll’s second-half BABIP was just .265 which explains the lower batting average.
While Carroll’s batting average was still mediocre, his power was incredible. Carroll hit 17 home runs in the second half. His 600 PA home run pace was 36 home runs over the second half.
Carroll’s second half was all about health. Carroll has a history of shoulder injuries. He suffered a torn labrum back in 2021 and was feared to have suffered a significant shoulder injury on a swing in July of 2023. Carroll only missed a few games, but his power lagged significantly in the back half of 2023. We saw the same thing last year but Carroll looked more than healthy during the second half. Carroll is one of the game’s most dangerous hitters and has the five-category upside to finish as the best player in fantasy. Any draft-day discount should be taken advantage of this year. Fantasy managers should expect big things from Carroll after his strong second half.
Got a different take on these second-half studs? Share it in the comments below. For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.