Well, we have almost arrived. Fantasy Baseball draft season is in full swing, and baseball is just around the corner. Looking at Fantasy Baseball ADP can be useful to give you an idea of perceived value on players. It is important to remember that ADP is not predictive; it only tells us what has happened. Using Fantasy Baseball ADP to draft by is also not a great idea. Make your own rankings and evaluate players for yourself, do not just draft a player because ADP tells you to do so. Remember, ADP is just another tool you can use; it is not a list that should be followed when drafting.
Regardless, it can be useful to look at Fantasy Baseball ADP to look at players whose value has changed over a period of time. Injuries, trades, signings, players grabbing starting jobs are reasons a player can see their ADP change. Today, we will dive in on the players who have seen their Fantasy Baseball ADP change the most from January to February. For this exercise, NFBC ADP was pulled from Draft Champions leagues from January and February. All data was compiled and then compared to see which players saw the largest change in their ADP from January to February.
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Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis: Jan-Feb
ADP Risers
| Player | Team | Position(s) | FEB ADP | JAN ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joakim Soria | ARZ | P | 246.92 | 599.02 | 352.1 |
| Jake McGee | SF | P | 420.22 | 721.36 | 301.14 |
| Anthony Bass | MIA | P | 281.86 | 456.78 | 174.92 |
| Adam Ottavino | BOS | P | 365.22 | 539.07 | 173.85 |
| Sean Doolittle | CIN | P | 508.3 | 675.53 | 167.23 |
| Aaron Sanchez | SF | P | 606.89 | 746.83 | 139.94 |
| Matt Moore | PHI | P | 531.7 | 644.24 | 112.54 |
| Kolten Wong | MLW | 2B | 229.97 | 336 | 106.03 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | P | 587.11 | 689.58 | 102.47 |
| Elvis Andrus | OAK | SS | 327.08 | 425.88 | 98.8 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | C | 544.57 | 642.81 | 98.24 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | TEX | P | 556.11 | 642.97 | 86.86 |
| Chris Archer | TB | P | 427.57 | 512.83 | 85.26 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | ARZ | 1B, 3B | 458.46 | 532.95 | 74.49 |
| Carlos Rodon | CWS | P | 579.32 | 652.03 | 72.71 |
| Alex Cobb | LAA | P | 515 | 587.17 | 72.17 |
| Wilson Ramos | DET | C | 283.24 | 349.78 | 66.54 |
| Freddy Galvis | BAL | 2B, SS | 417.3 | 482.47 | 65.17 |
| Myles Straw | HOU | OF | 344.86 | 409.46 | 64.6 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | 2B | 410.38 | 473.14 | 62.76 |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | 2B | 317.16 | 377.75 | 60.59 |
| Dexter Fowler | LAA | OF | 530.38 | 589.47 | 59.09 |
| Archie Bradley | PHI | P | 238.62 | 296.08 | 57.46 |
| Tyler O'Neill | STL | OF | 383.95 | 440.97 | 57.02 |
| Joc Pederson | CHC | OF | 282.76 | 338.64 | 55.88 |
Relief Pitchers
The top five who moved up the most over the last month were all relief pitchers. Joakim Soria (Jan: 599-Feb: 246.9) was the largest riser. Soria signed with the Diamondbacks and is the presumed closer for the time being. Jake McGee signed with the San Francisco Giants, and many believe he will get the first crack at saves. He saw his ADP move from 721 to 420 over the last month. Anthony Bass is another who could be in line for saves after signing with the Miami Marlins. His ADP jumped to 281 in February after being drafted at an average pick of 456 in January.
Adam Ottavino and Sean Doolittle are the next two that saw their Fantasy Baseball ADPs move up the most in February. They moved up 173 and 167 spots, respectively. Ottavino was traded from New York to Boston, and there is reason to believe he could get the first chance at saves over Matt Barnes. On the other hand, Sean Doolittle likely does not have the closer role in Cincinnati but does have prior closing experience. If injuries occur, Doolittle could get a chance at the closer role.
Aaron Sanchez, SP, San Francisco Giants (Jan: 746-Feb: 606)
Free Agent SP Aaron Sanchez’s Instagram story posted earlier today. He was hitting 95-98 🔥#MLBHotStove #MLBFreeAgency #AaronSanchez #MLB2021 pic.twitter.com/4yxY7ZootN
— G.T. Julian Guilarte (@JulianGuilarte1) February 13, 2021
This video of Aaron Sanchez hitting 98 mph got a lot of people excited. He also signed with the San Francisco Giants in mid-February. There is a chance Sanchez grabs the fifth rotation spot in San Francisco and potentially sees a career resurgence. It is important to remember that Sanchez is only 28 years old and was pretty dominant in his early career in Toronto. If he comes out in the spring and is dealing, you can fully expect his price to jump several hundred more spots.
Kolten Wong, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers (Jan: 336-Feb: 230)
This one should be no surprise to anyone. When Kolten Wong signed a two-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, his stock began to soar. Wong should leadoff for a team with Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, and Keston Hiura hitting behind him. He should score a lot of runs and bring an intriguing power/speed blend to the table. In 2019, Wong hit 11 home runs and stole 24 bases to go with his .285/.361/.423 slash line. If you are looking for a second baseman late, Wong could be a solid option.
Fantasy Baseball ADP Fallers
| Player | Team | Position(s) | FEB ADP | JAN ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | P | 528.59 | 390.66 | -137.93 |
| Daniel Hudson | WAS | P | 548.43 | 438.31 | -110.12 |
| Ryan Braun | MLW | OF | 727.24 | 618.27 | -108.97 |
| Josiah Gray | LAD | P | 728.97 | 621.54 | -107.43 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | P | 480.46 | 381.64 | -98.82 |
| Tanner Rainey | WAS | P | 429.14 | 333.07 | -96.07 |
| Stefan Crichton | ARZ | P | 327.32 | 243.97 | -83.35 |
| Yasiel Puig | ATL | OF | 329.35 | 253.34 | -76.01 |
| Aaron Bummer | CWS | P | 501.51 | 426.1 | -75.41 |
| Brandon Kintzler | MIA | P | 513.97 | 439.44 | -74.53 |
| Taylor Rogers | MIN | P | 197.11 | 122.81 | -74.3 |
| Jordan Romano | TOR | P | 389.22 | 315.95 | -73.27 |
| Rafael Dolis | TOR | P | 587.38 | 519.22 | -68.16 |
| Austin Gomber | COL | P | 552.14 | 484.54 | -67.6 |
| Dustin May | LAD | P | 228.84 | 162.56 | -66.28 |
| Clarke Schmidt | NYY | P | 569.51 | 503.75 | -65.76 |
| Tony Gonsolin | LAD | P | 252.49 | 189.56 | -62.93 |
| Sam Huff | TEX | C | 425.14 | 369.03 | -56.11 |
| J.B. Wendelken | OAK | P | 505 | 448.93 | -56.07 |
| Roberto Osuna | HOU | P | 595.62 | 542.49 | -53.13 |
| Monte Harrison | MIA | OF | 648 | 596.88 | -51.12 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | 1B | 412.76 | 362.05 | -50.71 |
| Lucas Sims | CIN | P | 373.16 | 323.71 | -49.45 |
| Randal Grichuk | TOR | OF | 250.62 | 201.25 | -49.37 |
Tyler Duffey, RP, Minnesota Twins (Jan: 390.7-Feb: 528.6)
Much like with the ADP risers, plenty of relief pitchers saw their ADP fall significantly in 2020. Tyler Duffey was a darkhorse to grab saves in Minnesota after Taylor Rogers struggled last season. I was even grabbing Duffey late in nearly every draft. Unfortunately, the signing of Alex Colomé killed all dreams of Duffey getting saves. For that reason, Duffey’s ADP has dropped over 130 slots.
Dustin May, SP (Jan: 162.6-Feb: 228.8) & Tony Gonsolin, SP (Jan: 189.6-Feb: 252.5), Los Angeles Dodgers
Both Dodgers starting pitchers took a huge hit with Trevor Bauer signing with the team. There were question marks already about whether either Tony Gonsolin or Dustin May would have a spot in the rotation full time in 2021. The Bauer signing killed those hopes, and for that reason alone, May and Gonsolin have seen their ADP take big hits. If an injury occurs, one or both of them could see more time.
I think it is likely that both May and Gonsolin get 10 starts at some point in 2021. If their draft prices continue to fall, they could be well worth scooping up on the chance that someone gets injured.
Fantasy Baseball ADP is likely to continue to fluctuate over the next several weeks as Spring training battles continue to happen. Trades and free agent signings could occur. Continue to monitor ADP closely and remember, it is just a tool to help you. Do not live and die by ADP!
Be sure to check out all our great content in our MLB Draft Kit.
References: NFBC Fantasy Baseball ADP
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