With the trade deadline steadily approaching, it’s an especially exciting time for savvy fantasy managers. Not necessarily because of the deadline per se, but because of the opportunity it presents. Think about it. As teams around baseball determine whether or not they should be buyers or sellers at the deadline, rosters become very fluid. That means there’s a lot of change on the horizon, and for enterprising skippers who can make a few timely predictions with a little under a month to go, there’s a lot of value to be had.
Naturally, that reward comes almost entirely from ‘buying low’ on players whose values are about to spike and ‘selling high’ and players who have already peaked. In a way, it’s like navigating the stock market. And while this isn’t the Wall Street Journal, let’s get into it.
*Please note that all stats are accurate entering play on Sunday, July 7*
Buying Low
Paul DeJong, SS, CHW
.236/.285/.450, 16 HR, 36 RBI, 2 SB, 36 R over 280 AB (84 G)
Last-place and with the worst record in baseball, the White Sox are almost certainly selling. There have been rumors about Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet, but on a one-year contract a DeJong trade is almost set in stone.
Now, with Mookie Betts on the IL, the Dodgers (and perhaps Atlanta, as well) just so happen to need a shortstop. DeJong seems like the most likely option right now (see Bo Bichette below), and considering his production is acquirable plus the profound (if potential) benefits of hitting in the Dodgers’ lineup, skippers should be buying low on DeJong before it’s too late. A slam dunk, if you will.
Jackson Holliday, 2B/SS, BAL
.273/.449/.477, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 5 SB, 65 R over 216 AB (59 G) in AAA
Right now, we’re at a point in the season (with respect to re-draft, anyway) where there are countless fantasy baseball managers – upset at having taken Holliday too early, and discouraged by the fact he isn’t hitting .400 in the minors – just looking for a way to get something out of the 20-year-old. Long story short? A decent enough low-ball offer could probably net you Holliday.
Chances are he’ll be up again at some point down the stretch, and while nothing is guaranteed, the potential benefits are probably too good to pass up.
Nolan Jones, OF, COL
.183/.288/.301, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 3 SB, 17 R over 153 AB (45 G)
Exactly like Holliday, there are a number of skippers out there who are disappointed in Nolan Jones. Since coming off the IL, he hasn’t been much better than when he started the season so slowly. The right low-ball offer could probably also land you his services. Since Jones enjoyed a 20/20 season and a .297 average last year, opting to buy low still feels worth it.
Yusei Kikuchi, SP, TOR
4.12 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4 W, 98 K over 94 IP (18 starts)
Enjoying another solid season fantasy-wise nonetheless, Kikuchi’s slight regression from 2023 (3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 11 W, 181 K over 167.2 IP) makes him available to fantasy managers as a textbook buy low candidate. The Jays look like sellers right now, and Kikuchi is in the last year of his contract. His value probably doubles on a winning team (ie: The Orioles need pitching), and thus trading for the LHP makes too much sense.
Taylor Ward, OF, LAA
.237/.322/.421, 14 HR, 44 RBI, 3 SB, 43 R over 316 AB (86 G)
‘Buying low’ on Ward probably doesn’t do justice, because – finally healthy – the outfielder is having a fine season. Production-wise he’s similar to DeJong, and as with the shortstop, consider how much better his line would look hitting in the middle of a first-place lineup. While not a sure thing, a Ward trade (and even a Tyler Anderson deal) does seem likely, so acquiring him could really prove worthwhile.
Andrew Vaughan, 1B, CHW
.241/.294/.396, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, 32 R over 316 AB (83 G)
Knowing the Yankees are in need of a first baseman in the wake of Anthony Rizzo’s injury, doesn’t Andrew Vaughan’s batting average look about 50 points higher? Once a top prospect, Vaughan is posting another so-so season for the White Sox. However, he’s been hot over his last 30 (.314/.354/.542, 7 HR) and with the possibility of hitting in the New York lineup (or on another talented team, Ben Rice considered) there’s a lot to like. On a low-profile trade, buying low on the young slugger could prove worthwhile.
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, AZ
4.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3 W, 100 K over 107.1 IP (18 starts)
After his impressive run in the playoffs last season (3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 26 K over 22 IP), it’s been a little disappointing to see that Brandon Pfaadt has not quite been able to build off that success the way fantasy baseball managers were expecting. Having said that, the Diamondbacks as a whole seem to be disappointing after winning the pennant. At 44-45 and in the thick of the NL Wild Card conversation, the hope for Arizona is that a few deadline acquisitions can give them new life. We know he has the potential, and with a better team around him, Pfaadt’s numbers should improve down the stretch. Buy low if the price is right.
Brandon Pfaadt, Wicked 84mph Sweeper. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/zKrciBvDj7
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 7, 2024
Evan Carter, OF, TEX
.188/272/.361, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB, 23 R over 144 AB (45 G)
We all know what Evan Carter can do. He slashed .306/.413/.645 with 5 HR, 12 RBI, and 3 SB in just 23 games at the end of last season. So after struggling out of the gate this season and then hitting the IL (quite possibly the root of his problems at the plate), buying low on the 21-year-old makes a lot of sense. Chances are he won’t be back until after the All-Star break (although he did just start swinging a bat), but the opportunity to pick up on such a talented player at a discount shouldn’t be wasted.
Brett Baty, 3B*, NYM
.229/.306/.327, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 0 SB, 15 R over 153 AB (50 G)
Bearing in mind there’s a good chance Baty is on waivers in most re-draft leagues, there is a lot to like about the Mets infielder right now. After a tough 2023 and continued struggles out of the gate this season, Baty was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse at the end of May. But after a resurgent June that has brought his MiLB line up to a dominant .294/.339/.560 with 8 HR and 22 RBI, Baty is red-hot in July and begging for another shot in the show. Additionally, the Mets have been giving him time at second base, which would expand his positional versatility upon returning to Citi Field. Thus, before he has the opportunity to prove himself again in the majors, skippers should claim/buy low on Baty.
Brett Baty has been smoking the ball since being sent down to Triple-A Syracuse.
19 G, 84 PA, .316/.369/.605, 4 2B, 6 HR, 17.9% K#LGM pic.twitter.com/y3truKhThn
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) July 2, 2024
Selling High
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, TOR
.295/.370/.462, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 2 SB, 43 R over 342 AB (89 G)
Fresh off of a resurgent June, a Player of the Week award, and the honor of representing the AL as a starter in the All-Star Game, Vlad Jr. is at the top of his game right now. That, of course, means Guerrero is at his peak value.
Currently, with team control through 2026, it does not look like the Jays will trade Guerrero – meaning he won’t have the opportunity for counting stats. Not to mention, a number of the key players around him (Justin Turner, Danny Jansen, and possibly* Isiah-Kiner Falefa and Bo Bichette) will be on the move. That would let pitchers start to more or less pitch around him as the only elite hitter in the Toronto lineup, leaving him to suffer down the stretch (think of this phenomenon almost like a reverse Barry Bonds effect.)
Bottom line, while letting go of Vladdy will hurt because of how he’s been hitting of late, a fall in numbers is likely on the horizon (if logic stands to reason, anyway). Serious fantasy managers should assess their options.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 13-for-26 (.500), 4 HR, 17 RBI, 1.673 OPS
Jonathan India: 14-for-26 (.538), 10 2B, 5 RBI, 1.536 OPSYour @Chevrolet AL & NL Players of the Week! pic.twitter.com/k1G8Y1FGEf
— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2024
Bo Bichette, SS, TOR
.225/.278/.324, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 5 SB, 28 R over 293 AB (76 G)
Now, Bo Bichette. Like Guerrero, Bichette is under team control through 2026, and a trade makes a lot of sense just because the 26-year-old seems to need a change of scenery. Even better, there’s demand in the shortstop market.
The problem is, because of Bichette’s relatively average-to-poor defensive reputation, options like Paul DeJong seem preferable to teams like the Dodgers at this point. Additionally, from a logistics standpoint, it probably (at least in this author’s opinion) makes more sense for the Blue Jays to deal Bichette next season – if at all – when hopefully he is hitting closer to his potential. Thus, because buying low and betting on an improved second half won’t work in the same way it might for Jackson Holliday, Nolan Jones, or Evan Carter simply because of Bichette’s established stardom, selling high on the young slugger now before it’s too late (even though he could find it again) might be the best course of action.
Jose Caballero, INF, TB
.240/.301/.358, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 24 SB, 37 R over 246 AB (74 G)
Staying in the AL East, infielder Jose Caballero and his 24 SB have been a nice surprise this season. However, with the recent return of SS Taylor Walls and the seemingly imminent call-ups of Carson Williams (MLB.com No.9) and – upon returning off the IL – 3B Junior Caminero (MLB.com No.3), playing time seems limited. As a result, selling high now and capitalizing off his stolen bases would be prudent.
Cody Bellinger, 1B, OF, CHC
.270/.330/.417, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 4 SB, 38 R over 300 AB (76 G)
In Chicago, things are… complicated. This is especially true for star outfielder/first baseman, Cody Bellinger. The Cubs are in last place and Bellinger has a player option heading into next season, hence all the natural trade speculation. Based on the stellar season Bellinger managed last year and his regression into average offensive production this year, chances are the 28-year-old will exercise his $30M player option for 2025. But not so fast, because if he turns it around down the stretch he may enter free agency and vie for a new deal elsewhere.
That, coupled with the fact the Cubs aren’t completely out of a jam-packed NL Wild Card race, leaves everything in the air. Just consider this: Bellinger’s player option (and the one he has for the 2026 season) makes him seriously difficult to trade, and the Cubs are probably selling. So while nobody can really say, logically there is a greater probability that Bellinger remains on a depleted Chicago roster than not. That depends on how the next month goes (and, quite frankly, it could go either way), but all that is to say it’s probably preferable for skippers to sell high on the first baseman/outfielder now amidst all the buzz for a guaranteed high return. Granted, fantasy managers should do so at their own risk.
Chris Sale & Garrett Crochet, SP, ATL & CHW
2.71 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 11 W, 127 K over 99.2 IP (16 starts)
3.08 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6 W, 146 K over 105.1 IP (19 starts)
Chris Sale and Garrett Crochet. Two dominant southpaws and strikeout kings who – although it’s not clear if Crochet will be dealt – could both very well be pitching deep into this October. Given the numbers and (in Sale’s case) the prestige, fantasy baseball managers definitely shouldn’t consider trading either one of them…right?
Probably not. But just consider that both Sale and Crochet have had a litany of injuries derail them over the last two seasons. To be available for October and for their own health, it seems likely both will see some sort of innings restriction down the stretch. So is it enough reason to sell high on both while they’re both on top? Maybe. Skippers should give it some thought.