Welcome to Cup Of Coffee, a fantasy baseball catch-up of sorts. Often funny, fairly thorough, and occasionally thoughtful, we’ll discuss injuries, promotions, demotions, trades, and whatever other tidbits catch our eye.
More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
Bello Nasty
Piggybacking on our own Tyler Bowen’s piece earlier this week, let’s take a look at Brayan Bello. The 24-year-old righthander has matured into the ace of the Red Sox rotation in short order, having made his MLB debut almost exactly a year ago, on July 6th, 2022. Known for a devastating changeup that he used judiciously on his rise through the minors, Bello experienced some ups and downs last year. In 11 starts during 2022, he pitched to a 4.71 ERA, though a FIP of only 2.94, foretold of a regression to the mean in the future. He earned himself a 2023 rotation spot only to put up a gawdawful line in April: 12.1 IP, 6.57 ERA, 9 ER, 3 HR, 14/5 K/BB). Not great, Bob, as they say.
And then, a switch:
Bye-bye slider, we hardly knew you.
Bello has made a fairly drastic pitch mix change, upping the usage of the four-seamer and playing that off of his elite changeup. The results have been sublime. In his last eleven starts (56.2IP), Bello has given up three earned runs only once, striking out 53 and walking 17. These results did not come against chump lineups either. Those starts were against, in order:
vs TOR, @ ATL, vs SEA, @LAA, vs CIN, vs TBR, @ NYY, vs NYY, @CHW, vs MIA
There are one, maybe two, soft matchups there. It’s always so fun to watch a young guy like this blossom in front of us.
(and yes, that absolutely is a Beastie Boys reference, people sleep on Hello Nasty, it’s a great record!!)
One Ticket for Small Sample Size Theatre, Please!
A micro-niche sleeper coming into the year, Kerry Carpenter has been a fantastic find for you adventurous managers out there. The 25-year-old Detroit right fielder made some faint fantasy ripples late last season, hitting 6 homers in August and September while slugging .485. So while some players, outside of AL-only leagues, assuredly had him on their radars during drafts, the Virginia Tech product essentially went undrafted, mustering a meager ADP of 530. He had an April line of .217/.280/.464 to match.
To be fair, though, that was over 71 PA appearances, half of which were in the unforgiving Detroit spring weather. Not easy to hit for contact if you can’t feel your fingers, amiright Harry? A Grade 1 shoulder sprain suffered on April 29 sent him to the IL. Since returning on June 9, he’s been awesome: slashing .323/.358/.516 with 3 HR and 3 doubles.
Enter the small sample hijinx. When you do a bit of digging, you find that there are some funny coincidences in Carpenter’s Statcast splits.
Keep looking and you’ll also notice that Carpenter also has done almost all of his damage whilst in the 3-hole.
Keep going and take a look at his Baseball Reference game log and you’ll see in April, he either hit only fourth or fifth. June was a different story, seeing Carpenter slide into the third spot in the Tigers lineup in almost 75% of their games. Does KCarp just like hitting in that spot? Sure seems like it. Though, for complete transparency, he *has* hit 4th in the first two games in July. We see you, AJ Hinch.
Is this something to track? We’re not sure. Does it feel like there is something here? Kinda? Maybe the dude is on a heater, maybe he’s found something. Truth be told, Carpenter should continue to play on the strong side of a platoon, sitting against most lefties. So Cup of Coffee isn’t suggesting owners target him in trades. But would we shame you for doing a little research on him in a week or two? Absolutely not!
Elly-Watch
After giving us one of the defining moments of the first half 10 days ago, Elly has been on Cycle Hangover, managing just a .338 OPS with a whopping 36% strikeout rate. It is almost undoubtedly just a blip in the young star’s career; one of the thousands of course corrections these players confront throughout a career. As Cup of Coffee has said since the beginning, if he can control the strikeouts, he will be a superstar. But even if he struggles with that, he still is going to be one of the most entertaining players the game has seen in a while.
For daily injury updates, look no further than Fantrax and our own Dave Funnell!
Thanks as always for stopping by, we’ll be back next week! If you have any thoughts, suggestions, or ideas, or just want to drop a virtual high-five, leave me a note: [email protected]