Fantasy Baseball Confidential: Week 3

Each week yours truly will be sharing various tidbits and revelations that I deem worthy of the attention of fantasy baseball managers of all formats and backgrounds. The first full week of baseball has revealed several leads that we need to chase down. So let’s see what’s happening on the down-low. Let’s find what’s strictly hush-hush, on the QT and deserves to have a light shined upon it for Week 3!

The Week That Was

Here you will find points of reference from this past week that you need to know going forward so you can be a fantasy baseball kingpin.

• Sometimes professional athletes suffer the worst moment of their lives in front of tens of thousands of people. I don’t know if that’s how Yu Darvish viewed his start against the Giants last Tuesday, but it has to rank in the top five. The good news is he bounced back with an excellent effort on Sunday Night Baseball against Atlanta. Darvish can implode on occasion just like any other pitcher. I don’t think devastating starts like the one against the Giants last week are commonplace for Darvish. He certainly can be streaky, but he has too many toys in his toy chest to give up 9 ER in 1.2IP. His Sunday night win over Atlanta eased a lot of fantasy managers’ minds, but I was buying him in the offseason and I will all season long.

Belt oppo taco! 🌮

Giants take an early 2-0 lead against Yu Darvish thanks to their captain 🟠⚫️ pic.twitter.com/4Hn44Z4CKp

— Just Baseball (@JustBBMedia) April 13, 2022

• Dylan Bundy was able to squeeze a win out of his start against the Mariners last Monday at Target Field. Now, I know some of you (myself included) have been bewitched by the mystique and potential that Bundy flashed as recently as 2020. Getting the W over Seattle though is not a sign of better days ahead. He was unable to overpower or fool hitters. His max velocity was 91.4 MPH. He only threw his nasty slider 13 times getting 3 whiffs on 7 swings. He also only tossed 67 pitches. This result was more a product of the time-honored tradition of luck. Fake it until you make it. That’s pretty much what happened to Bundy in that start. He draws Boston at Fenway in the annual Patriot’s Day early game at 11 AM EDT. I would advise that you not start Bundy for this one. It should be a two-start week for him, but you’re risking getting off on the wrong foot in Week 3 by starting Bundy. (DISCLOSURE: I’m a recovering Bundy-phile who has been burned many times by his potential. Be forewarned of an overwhelming bias on my part. That is all).
• Injuries plagued the realm of baseball this past week. Sonny Gray popped a tire, Byron Buxton has a sore knee, Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha hit the Covid IL, Hyun-Jin Ryu has elbow soreness, Casey Mize also has elbow soreness, Mike Trout got whacked in the hand, my favorite Tiger Javier Baez has a bogus thumb, Shane Baz was moved to the 60-day IL, Ryan Pressly has an inflamed knee and John Means is out for the season with an elbow sprain. That is a wheelbarrow full of sadness! Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said, “We don’t have much experience in our rotation, and losing your opening day starter, we’ll see how long it’s going to be. But for some time now, it’s going to be hard. Do need guys to step up. John’s one of the guys that people look up to on our pitching staff”. Those words do not indicate an imminent arrival of the O’s favored son Grayson Rodriguez. My Pallazzo Podcast prospects colleague Phil Goyette has echoed for months that the Orioles want Adley Rutschman in sync with the top starting pitchers in the Baltimore farm system because the higher ups want them all to arrive together with a cohesiveness as battery mates. I think Phil is on to something.
• I like to see position players get reps on the mound. Why not save the arms of your pitchers and let Dee Gordon shove off with 59 MPH fastballs? There was a lot of heated debate on Twitter (shocking I know) about this clip below of Ozzie Albies crushing Dee Gordon’s finest offering in a blowout win for Atlanta. This kind of stuff makes baseball a unique game in comparison to all others. I’m all for it!

Lame or awesome? Ozzie Albies crushes Dee Gordon's 59MPH offering. #MLB #FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/jtzFvMoojO

— Michael Govier (@mjgovier) April 13, 2022

• Another source of contentious discourse was the Clayton Kershaw affair. He was pulled after 7IP with a perfect game intact against the Twins. The night before there had been a rain delay in Minnesota and the Kershaw start was a quick turnaround with a noon local time start. All the ingredients were there for a powerful outing from Kershaw. Of course, I did not expect him to strike out 13 on 80 pitches nor did I predict a 63% whiff rate on his slider! Kershaw still has that old magic. The only question with him is health. He’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer who had a chance at immortality on a cloudy Wednesday in April. No matter what you think the Dodgers should have done, the main takeaway is he looked like a top-10 SP for 2022.

1.21 Jigawatts

In 1999’s Boiler Room, Ben Affleck’s character said “always be closing”. In fantasy baseball “always be looking ahead”

• If you get that feeling that you’re missing out on guys you really wanted to pick up on waivers, have no fear. It’s APRIL 18! I just know that the season is unpredictable. There will be players called up (usually hitters) who will impact your league standings many times over. Closers’ jobs will come and closer jobs will go. Remember Cesar Valdez of the Baltimore Orioles? He got off to a viable start in 2021 racking up saves with his “DeadFish” changeup. As of April 27, 2021, he had an American League best 5 saves and a 0.84 ERA. I remember fantasy managers asking me if he was for real. I told them he is a real human being, but his time leading the league in saves was coming to an end and fast. The Valdez Doctrine states that certain players outperform their abilities and will at some point sooner than later crush your spirits for hanging on to them too long. Don’t be that guy.
• A story of note that needs more attention is unvaccinated players not being able to play in Toronto. My girlfriend is Canadian so I know how hardcore the Canucks are about being vaccinated to enter the country. They are deadly serious about it. Last year we took a red-eye back from First Pitch Arizona. My girlfriend had to work that day so we went straight to the border after landing in Detroit. Long story short, we ended up paying $200 apiece for rapid PCR tests to get into Canada. That was a hellish day I assure you. Alex Cora made it clear that Tanner Houck (plus others) will not be active for the Red Sox in Toronto just as Austin Allen and A.J. Puk were unavailable this past weekend for the Athletics.
• Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks has two starts this week. Both are in the friendly confines of Wrigley. One against the Rays and the other against the Pirates. Going into Sunday both of these opponents are in the bottom seven in team home run totals with the Pirates second to last holding steady with 5 taters. The Pirates have homered the most off of Hendricks of any team in baseball with 20 dongs. What’s worse is Hendricks’ last start was against Pittsburgh and he was ripped for 6 earned with 4 free passes. The chart below shows that he didn’t get a single called strike on the changeup with only 2 whiffs on his money pitch. If he can’t dominate with his changeup, he is toast.

• My Detroit Tigers have a pitcher named Tyler Alexander who is worthy of your time. He started against Boston last Tuesday in a loss. He gave up 3 ER without any walks plus 4 Ks over 5.1IP. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch has been straight with Alexander about his role at all times coming into this season. His cutter is a cunning tool in his repertoire. He threw it 15 times against Boston with a CSW (called plus swinging strikes) of 40%. If you’re streaming in the week to come, Alexander certainly has appeal in 15 team leagues and deeper.
• If you’re looking for hitting streamers, the Brewers host the Pirates to start the week and then head east to Philly for a weekend series at the Citizens Bank bozo palace. Rowdy Tellez of the Brew Crew is rostered in 5% of Yahoo leagues. He will face three straight righties at Miller Park against the Pirates before Milwaukee heads east to take on Ranger Suarez who is scheduled to take the bump for the Phils Friday night.
• The Astros lost Yordan Alvarez to the Covid IL this past weekend, but there is optimism he will be ready to play Monday as he stated he plans to play Monday. This means I don’t have to attempt to break down who you should roster between Jose Siri and Chas McCormick. Both of these outfielders can play every day, but only one of them looks like your local State Farm Insurance representative. McCormick has more reps, but Siri might be more talented.

Speed Round Musings

The musings you find in this segment are just my thoughts. Assume total bias on my part in this section.

• I thought Garrett Whitlock would close for the Red Sox at some point this season. I no longer expect that to happen.
• Jesus Luzardo changed the world when he dominated the Angels last Tuesday. This is the guy we all expected him to be. Buy! Buy! Buy!

• The Athletics are fun! Sean Murphy is smacking the snot out of the ball, Tony Kemp is going to score a ton of runs and Paul Blackburn is a fantasy darling.
• How about a high-five for Daniel Bard? People just keep counting him out while he continues to be patient waiting for his moment to strike. I love it!
• Let’s wish Luis Patino all the best in his recovery from an oblique strain. That Blake Snell trade with Tampa doesn’t have a clear-cut winner yet.
• Nestor Cortes Jr. closed out the week with 12 Ks over 5IP in the Yanks’ loss to the O’s on Sunday. He basically did it with his cutter/fastball combo too!
• Tigers soon-to-be free agent Michael Fulmer is throwing harder than ever maxing out at 93.7 MPH Saturday at KC. Fulmer has value in that bullpen.
• I have a lot of shares of Marlins closer Anthony Bender, but I am concerned as he has relied on crucial double plays in both saves so far. Be wary.
• Dig into Angels pitchers Jimmy Herget. He struck out 5 Rangers in 2IP with a 58% whiff rate paired with a 57% CSW. It made me take notice!
• This is the home page for many players I love, but Jake Fraley is the one who deserves a mention. Dude knows how to get on base. Period. He’ll find a way.
• The Brewers don’t have Freddy Peralta pitching again until April 22nd in Philadelphia. I would have preferred a home start against Pittsburgh.