Fantasy Baseball: Players Expected Stats Are Too High On

Baseball Savant’s expected statistics are a great measure of what a player’s production should be. However, this doesn’t mean it should be used as a predictive tool to project what a player will do moving forward.

Based on my research at Fangraphs, overall statistics are more predictive of future production than expected statistics. Why? Well, there are certain limitations of expected stats. These statistics factor in exit velocity and launch angle, but do not take into account other key factors, such as batted-ball trajectory. A pulled fly ball, for instance, has a better chance of ending up as a home run than a ball hit the other way, while hitters with even sprays tend to post higher batting average on balls in play.

As we’ve shown with both expected batting average and expected power, there are clear ways to outperform or underperform your expected statistics. Today, we’re going to be looking at players that fit that bill. Who is going to hit for a worse batting average or less power than their expected statistics would suggest? Let us take a closer look!

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Underachieving Expected Batting Average

C Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox

With a career-low .246 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), you may expect Yasmani Grandal to benefit from positive regression in 2022. However, I wouldn’t be so sure. Last year, Grandal increased his pull rate to 44.3%, while his home-to-first time is now over five seconds (5.08, amongst the worst in the league). Perhaps he’ll benefit from line drive regression, but Grandal’s days of positing BABIPs in the high .270s is likely over. Luckily, he decreased his strikeout rate last year, and also provides a lot of power for your fantasy team. In on-base percentage (OBP) leagues, his value increases significantly.

C Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

With a career batting average (.230) much lower than his expected batting average (.245), as well as four straight seasons with a BABIP below .245, it’s clear that Gary Sanchez is a batting average outlier in the wrong way. His pull rate has been over 50% in back-to-back seasons, and his declining home-to-first times aren’t an optimistic sign of future batting average production. Thus, as per usual, the 29-year-old’s fantasy will be completely contingent on his power.

3B Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins

Last season, Josh Donaldson underperformed his expected batting average (.268) by .21 points, and it’s easy to see why. His 44.5% pull rate is certainly above average, while he posted a career-worst 4.83-second home-to-first time this year. With signs of decline due to age, I’m not expecting much more than a .240-.250 batting average from Donaldson in 2022, which still makes him a fine value as a late-round third base target.

3B Patrick Wisdom, Chicago Cubs

Patrick Wisdom actually (.231 batting average) overachieved his .216 expected batting average last year. However, I expect the reverse to happen in 2022. Wisdom’s 53% pull rate is incredibly high, and since he lifts the ball in the air (32.4% ground ball), he’s not going to repeat his .318 BABIP. If his 40.8% strikeout rate holds, it might be hard for him to maintain a .200 batting average.

Underperforming Expected Power

2B/1B DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

You would think that playing in Yankee Stadium would allow DJ LeMahieu to overachieve his power numbers, which had been the case previously. However, with a 52% ground ball rate, a 23.4% pull rate, and a 17.9% underrate, LeMahieu ranks below the 28th percentile in the main key facets of overachieving your power numbers. Hence, why his isolated power (ISO) was about .40 points below his xISO.

1B Nate Lowe, Texas Rangers

Ironically, Nate Lowe is someone that showed up as a player who was being underrated by expected batting average. However, the same reasons that is the case make him overvalued by expected power numbers. Lowe ranks worse than the 25th percentile in both key facets of overachieving expected power numbers; his 24.9% pull rate and 16.6% under rate are well-below average. Lowe has a lot of raw power (91st percentile max exit velocity), but until he decreases his 54.5% ground ball rate, 20 home runs appears to be the ceiling for him.

3B Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies

Expected to be a powerful presence in the middle of the Phillies lineup as a former top prospect, Alec Bohm disappointed with just a .095 ISO. Similar to Lowe, his raw power (82nd percentile max exit velocity), he’ll need to hit more balls in the air- he had a 52.7% ground ball rate in 2021. Add in just a 26% pull rate, and Bohm has a long ways to go before he’s hitting 30+ home runs, as he was expected to do. I still have optimism that, with a swing change, he can be an everyday third baseman for a long time, but that’s a major “if” at this point.

OF Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins

In the minors, Alex Kirilloff continuously posted ground ball rates over 40%, and he had a 48.8% ground ball rate in his small sample in the majors last year. Hopefully, for the sake of his power production, we see more balls pulled (32.3%) and in the air (13.4% under, 24.4% fly ball) in 2022.

Stats via Baseball Savant

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