Fantasy Baseball: Players Expected Stats Are Too Low On

Baseball Savant’s expected statistics are a great measure of what a player’s production should be. However, this doesn’t mean it should be used as a predictive tool to project what a player will do moving forward.

Based on my research at Fangraphs, overall statistics are more predictive of future production than expected statistics. Why? Well, there are certain limitations of expected stats. These statistics factor in exit velocity and launch angle, but do not take into account other key factors, such as batted-ball trajectory. A pulled fly ball, for instance, has a better chance of ending up as a home run that a ball hit the other way, while hitters with even sprays tend to post higher batting average on balls in play.

As we’ve shown with both expected batting average and expected power, there are clear ways to outperform your expected statistics. Today, we’re going to be looking at players that fit that bill. Who are going to hit for a better batting average or more power than their expected statistics would suggest? Let us take a closer look!

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Overachieving Expected Batting Average

OF Raimel Tapia, Colorado Rockies

With a 5th percentile average exit velocity, Raimel Tapia isn’t going to pop up on stat cast pages. However, he ranks second in expected batting average over expectation. With a 68% ground ball rate and just a 26% pull rate, Tapia is proficient at hitting ground balls through open holes; he was only shifted on 2.4% of his plate appearances last year. Add in the fact he plays in Colorado, and he’s a solid bet once again to hit for a high average with a lot of stolen bases.

1B Nate Lowe, Texas Rangers

Nate Lowe is the opposite of Tapia; he has plenty of raw power, as evidenced by his 91st percentile max exit velocity. However, with just a .236 expected batting average, he doesn’t stand out in terms of his hit tool. However, with just a 24.9 pull rate and 1.3% pop-up rate, he’s combining few balls in the air with an all-fields approach. Interestingly, he’s still being shifted 27.5% of the time, and has a .389 weighted on-base average (wOBA) when they do- that’s the key to him overachieving his expected stats.

OF Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets

As one of the key anchors for the Mets, you might expect more than a career .250 expected batting average and just a 48th percentile hard-hit rate for someone who hit .292 this year. However, Brandon Nimmo is an outlier. He ranks around one standard deviation better in ground ball rate, opposite-field rate, and home-to-first time. That overall balanced, diverse skillset allows him to beat his expected stats on a yearly basis.

2B/SS Nicky Lopez, Kansas City Royals

Nicky Lopez may have hit .300 last year, but that came with a .239 expected batting average. With a 58% ground ball rate, just a 3% pop-up rate, only a 24.9% pull rate, and a 4.19 home-to-first time, he, like Nimmo, demonstrated the type of skillset to consistently defeat his expected stats. Considering he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard (4th percentile), this will be the key to him repeating his offensive success in 2022.

Overachieving Expected Power Numbers

3B Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians

With good-not-great barrel rates, it may be hard to gauge why Jose Ramirez has become one of the elite power hitters in baseball. However, it all comes down to his ability to overachieve his expected isolated power. How? His 54.7% pull rate ranked above the 100th percentile last year, while he combined that with a 31.7% underrate. Being able to consistently hit fly balls, and pull them when doing so, leads to the type of wall scrapers that may not generally be perceived well based on purely exit velocity and launch angle. That’s the beauty of baseball, folks.

3B Nolan Arenado, St.Louis Cardinals

Many may have assumed that playing in Colorado was why Nolan Arenado, despite a career 7.8% barrel rate and .466 expected slugging percentage, has also been one of the most powerful hitters in the sport. However, Arenado appears to have made an offensive approach to sustain his power outside of Colorado. By pulling the ball more (45.8%), he can take advantage of his ability to consistently hit the ball in the air (36.7% under), which is exactly what happened. Those who only use expected statistics may undervalue Arenado heading into 2022, but he remains one of the most productive players at his position.

2B Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers

I have a whole article dedicated to him – he was the inspiration of this research – so it makes sense that Marcus Semien was one of the best players when it comes to sustainably overachieve his expected power numbers. It will be tougher to sustain this approach in Texas, a worse ballpark to hit in, but Semien’s ability to play every day at the top of the lineup while manufacturing as much power as possible still makes him a top-notch fantasy baseball asset in 2022. Based on his expected statistics and the fear of the ballpark he’s now in, he may end up as an undervalued player come draft time.

OF Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants

With a career .500 slugging percentage versus a career .466 expected slugging percentage, it’s been clear that Mike Yastrzemski has found a way to overachieve his power numbers. In 2021, his high pull rate (46.3%) and underrate (33.4%) guided him to a .230 ISO, notably higher than his .201 xISO. That’s one way to handle hitting for power despite playing in San Francisco.

Stats via Baseball Savant

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