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Fantasy Baseball Prospects Report: Sizzling Sixto and Bashing Bart

By Eric Cross
Sixto Sanchez Miami Marlins Top Prospects

If you thought last week’s prospects report was chalked full of enticing prospect promotions, you haven’t seen anything yet! Another big batch of prospects got the call this week, including elite names like Joey Bart and Sixto Sanchez. So what does that mean for redraft leagues and what can we expect longterm from these players? We’re going to dive into all of these promotions plus much more in this week’s Fantasy Baseball Prospects Report here on FantraxHQ.

If you aren’t playing your dynasty leagues on Fantrax, you’re missing out on the deepest player pool and most customization around. New to the dynasty format or just love rankings? Then check out Eric Cross’ recently updated, Top-500 Dynasty League Rankings (Updated 8/13!), Top-250 Dynasty Prospects, and Top-100 FYPD Rankings.

Also, make sure to check out the Five Tool Fantasy Baseball Podcast Weekly for more dynasty talk.

Sixto Sánchez, Joey Bart, & Other Top Prospect Callups

Joey Bart (C – SFG)

The biggest offensive callup of the week without a doubt was the San Francisco Giants calling up the 2nd best catching prospect in the game, Joey Bart. The former Georgia Tech product and #2 overall pick in the 2018 draft made his debut on Thursday and has recorded a hit in each of his first four games with three of those being doubles, immediately showcasing his immense offensive potential from a position tremendously deprived of it.

Bart has been flashing that offensive potential ever since he broke out at Georgia Tech back in 2017. If you combine that final collegiate season with his minor league numbers, Bart cranked 42 doubles and 42 home runs in 174 games and slashed .284/.343/.532 in 130 minor league games. This was one of the more polished hitters in the 2018 draft class which is why I’m so confident he can immediately produce like a top-10 catcher for redraft leagues. Long-term, the upside is higher than that. Much higher.

At the plate, Bart is a middle of the order masher in the making. Double-plus raw power is his calling card. Bart’s swing is quick from the right side with plenty of loft and his frame is strong, especially through his lower half with his hips creating exceptional torque. He’s far from an all or nothing masher too with average to above-average contact skills and good strike zone awareness. Bart might not walk a ton, but he’s consistently kept his strikeout rate in check, posting a 20.8% mark in the minors. With his upside in the ballpark of a .270-.280 hitter that slugs 30-plus homers annually, Bart is a no-doubt top-5 dynasty catcher right now and could sneak into the top-3 before too long.

Sixto Sánchez (RHP – MIA)

Over the last two seasons, the Miami Marlins pitching staff has been freshened up with an exciting youth movement and Sixto Sánchez is the latest arm to join the mix. You could make a strong case that Sánchez has more upside than any arm Miami has debuted recently too, even more than Zac Gallen. Acquired for all-star catcher JT Realmuto, Sanchez has the upside to develop into a frontline starter and top-25 fantasy hurler.

The arsenal is electric, filthy, and nasty all at the same time. Sanchez sits in the upper-90’s thanks to his exceptional arm speed and generates impressive run that explodes on opposing hitters. In his MLB debut, Sánchez averaged 98.5 mph and hit triple-digits on the gun five times, topping out at 100.4. Offsetting his blazing heater is a plus or better changeup around 90 with hard sink and run (looks like a two-seamer), and a sharp upper-80’s slider that also grades as a borderline plus offering.

You’d think with such a dynamic arsenal that Sánchez would be striking out hitters at an alarming rate. Not so fast. Sánchez only posted a 7.9 K/9 in the minors and never exceeded an 8.7 mark. Don’t let that scare you off though. With an explosive fastball, two potential plus secondaries, and above-average to plus command and control, it’s only a matter of time before Sánchez’s strikeout rate ticks up above a batter per inning.

Jesús Sánchez (OF – MIA)

Are the Marlins trying to set a record for the most players with the last name Sánchez called up in one week? Okay, it was only two. With this particular Sánchez, the raw tools have continued to overshadow his game production for the majority of his time as a professional. At 6’3/220, Jesus Sánchez is a strong and athletic outfielder with plus raw power, above-average contact skills, and at least average speed. However, his approach at the plate has been aggressive as a professional and he’s consistently pounded the ball into the ground at a higher clip, routinely sitting in the 44% to 53% range.

He’s proven that he has the power to hit 25-plus homers annually, but he’s going to need to generate more loft with his swing and begin driving the ball more consistently in the air. If he can do so, Sánchez could turn into a fantasy star that posts .280/25/10 seasons while hitting somewhere in the middle of Miami’s order. I’m not expecting that change to happen this season for redraft purposes though, so he can be left on the wire outside of deeper leagues. However, this is the type of talent you invest in for dynasty leagues and hope the adjustments can happen to unlock his immense upside.

Ryan Mountcastle (1B/OF – BAL)

While many thought it should’ve happened much sooner, the Baltimore Orioles finally called up one of their best hitting prospects this past weekend. No not Adley Rutschman. The shortstop turned third baseman turned first baseball, Ryan Mountcastle offers enticing offensive upside that honestly isn’t far off from what Carter Kieboom brings to the table. Okay, that might not have been a glowing comparison at the moment as Kieboom has struggled mightily in the Majors so far, but if you remember the buzz around Kieboom when he debuted, it should inspire some confidence around Mountcastle moving forward.

Mountcastle fits the mold of many top hitting prospects to come through this Baltimore system as he makes plenty of contact but doesn’t work many walks. That was clearly evident last season when he hit .312 in the International League but only walked in 4.3% of his plate appearances. Overall, Mountcastle hit .295 with a 4.5% walk rate in his 524 minor league games. That’s firmly in Adam Jones territory.

Valuing Mountcastle comes down to if you play in a league that uses AVG or OBP. If average, Mountcastle’s .280-.290/25+ upside could make him a top-100 fantasy asset in time. Whether that’s at first base or left field is another question. However, his value takes a solid hit in OBP formats as he’s likely going to settle into the .320-.330 OBP range as a pro without an approach change at the plate. For redraft purposes, he’ll likely be given regular playing time ROS for the Orioles, so those in need of an offensive spark should consider adding Mountcastle.

Cristian Pache (OF – ATL)

Cristian Pache is an enigma. When it comes to his future value, the prospect community is very split on him, especially when breaking down real-life value versus fantasy value. When it comes to real-life value, Pache is a top-25 prospect when you factor in his defense in centerfield. That type of up the middle defense his highly-valuable to an MLB franchise. But when it comes to his offensive skills, Pache is still very much a work in progress.

One area that has remained consistent is Pache’s hit tool that grades as above-average. In each of his four minor league seasons, Pache hit between .277 and .309 with a career .283/.331/.404 slash line. The power has ticked up over the last two seasons as well after not hitting any home runs in his first two seasons spanning 750 plate appearances. Even with the additional power, Pache projects more as a 15-20 HR bat than a 25-plus masher.

How much of a fantasy asset Pache turns into is going to be up to his speed and development on the bases. Once considered a double-plus runner, Pache now grades more as an above-average to plus runner and one that has been very inefficient on the bases. Over the last two seasons, Pache has converted on a lowly 44% of his stolen base attempts and has only converted on 60.4% of his 96 attempts as a professional. Uhhh, that’s not good folks. If Pache can improve on the bases and put up 20-plus steals annually, it’s going to be big for his fantasy value. At this point, I’d let someone else pay for the big name value, both in redraft and dynasty leagues.

Brendan Rodgers (2B/SS – COL)

Since the Rockies recalled Brendan Rodgers, one of their top prospects, on Wednesday, he’s started in one of five games. This is just the same old Rockies BS that we’ve had to deal with for years now when it comes to their handling of young players. It also leads me to ask the following question:

Why bring Rodgers up again if you’re not going to play him consistently? This is a top-50 prospect we’re talking about that was once deemed a top-10 prospect by certain outlets, not an organizational depth piece. There’s a reason I coined the phrase “Rock Blocking” and it applies to Rodgers more than anyone else. At least players like Garrett Hampson and Sam Hilliard have gotten somewhat of a chance to play. Rodgers has received 89 total plate appearances since his Major League debut on May 17th, 2019.

Unless there’s an injury or two, Rodgers needs to be ignored in redraft leagues unless pain and frustration are your jams. In dynasty, I’d still be holding or buying low if you can as the talent to hit for a high average while hitting 25-30 home runs and adding in a handful of steals is still there. If he ever gets the chance that is.

Triston McKenzie (RHP – CLE)

Have yourself a debut Triston McKenzie! This debut would be highly impressive for any pitching prospect, but even more so when you factor in that he hadn’t pitched in a game in nearly two years due to injury. In six innings of work, McKenzie allowed just two hits, one walk, and one earned run while striking out 10 Tigers. Anyone saying “well, it’s just the Tigers” can cut it out right this second. Any pitcher making his MLB debut and dominating like this is a spectacular accomplishment.

McKenzie did most of his damage with his fastball (averaged 94.5 mph) and curveball, tossing the duo 80% of the time with a 47.8% and 38.9% CSW respectively. A near 50% CSW on a fastball is ridiculously good. he also recorded a 33.3% CSW on his changeup and finished with a 21.3% whiff rate and 41.3% CSW overall.

While I’ve gone on record voicing my concern about his long-term value due to his skinny frame and injury history, there’s no questioning the talent in McKenzie’s right arm. His mid-90’s fastball and low-80’s curveball each grade as plus offerings with his improved changeup flashing above-average to plus at times. He’ll also mix in a slider as a fringe complimentary 4th offering. Just as impressive as the arsenal is McKenzie’s plus control and above-average command. If he can just stay healthy, there’s #2 starter upside here. He needs to be rostered as long as he’s starting for Cleveland, but that might not be for long depending on if/when they bring back Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac.

Dane Dunning (RHP – CHW)

Another talented pitching prospect that missed extended over the last few years made his debut this week as well. Unfortunately, he’s already been sent back down to the Chicago’s alternate site. Like McKenzie, Dane Dunning missed the entire 2019 season and never pitched above Double-A prior to his debut last week when he squared off against Casey Mize. In 4.1 innings, Dunning allowed five hits, three earned runs, and one walk while striking out seven. All in all, not a bad first outing for someone that didn’t pitch at all in 2019.

While his redraft value is nonexistent due to him already being back at the alternate site, Dunning’s longterm value is fairly high. The 6’4 right-hander projects as a mid-rotation arm with a low to mid-90’s fastball, two breaking balls that flash above-average to plus, and a serviceable changeup as well. He’s also shown solid command and control throughout his professional career as well. It wouldn’t hurt to throw a buy-low offer to the person rostering Dunning in your dynasty league. His value is lower than it should be right now and can be in the future.

Jake Fraley (OF – SEA)

Fraley put himself on the map when his power ticked up back in 2018 and then into 2019. Before then, he was mostly an AVG/SB threat with limited power potential. The added power he developed pushed him into top-100 territory and he’s just been waiting for his chance to produce in Seattle ever since. Everyone is currently enamored with what Kyle Lewis is doing right now, and rightfully so, but don’t forget that Fraley was ranked higher by many outlets. That’s not me saying Fraley is going to dominate out of the gate as Lewis has, but don’t overlook him either, even after his uninspiring 40 at-bats last season with the big club.

Other Prospect Promotions

Ryan Jeffers (C – MIN)

Jojo Romero (LHP – PHI):

Ljay Newsome (RHP – SEA)

Will Crowe (RHP – WAS)

Michel Baez (RHP – SD)

Prospect News & Notes

Jarren Duran Powering Up

One of the hottest prospects early in 2019 was Red Sox outfield farmhand, Jarren Duran. The speedy outfielder slashed .387/.456/.543 in the High-A Carolina League with 20 extra-base hits and 18 steals in 50 games. That torrid start earned Duran a promotion to my neck of the woods in the Double-A Eastern League. Let’s just say, both his stat line and my live looks were severely underwhelming. All that built up prospect buzz was squashed quicker than he created it. Could we be looking at a different Duran this season though? Reports out of the Red Sox alternate camp is that Duran made a swing change, lowering his hands, and it’s allowed him to tap into more of his raw power. We could see him in Boston this season too if the Red Sox decide to trade Jackie Bradley jr before the trade deadline.

Injury Updates

  • According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, A.J. Puk will throw to live hitters today and should rejoin the Athletics later this week, albeit, likely in a bullpen role. If Puk’s not starting, he can be left on the waiver wire in redraft leagues.
  • It’s sounding like Nate Pearson might be done for the season. The stud right-hander got a 2nd opinion on his right elbow, which is usually never promising. And with only a month left in the season, it makes a lot of sense for Toronto to shut him down, even if the 2nd opinion isn’t too damning.
  • Working his way back from Tommy John surgery, Corbin Martin was shut down late last week after suffering an oblique strain. He wasn’t going to pitch in the Majors this season anyway, but it’s just another bump in the road for the talented righty.

Top Redraft Prospect Stashes

The weekly prospect stash lists factor in proximity to MLB playing time and potential 2020 impact.

Hitters

  1. Gavin Lux (2B – LAD)
  2. Andrew Vaughn (1B – CHW)
  3. Drew Waters (OF – ATL)
  4. Jarred Kelenic (OF – SEA)
  5. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B – PIT)
  6. Jazz Chisholm (SS – MIA)
  7. Jarren Duran (OF – BOS)
  8. Bobby Dalbec (1B/3B – BOS)
  9. Brandon Marsh (OF – LAA)
  10. Jared Oliva (OF – PIT)

HM: Royce Lewis (SS – MIN), JJ Bleday (OF – MIA), Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF – MIN), Trevor Larnach (OF – MIN), Oneil Cruz (SS – PIT)

Pitchers

  1. MacKenzie Gore (LHP – SDP)
  2. Clarke Schmidt (RHP – NYY)
  3. Matt Manning (RHP – DET)
  4. Ian Anderson (RHP – ATL)
  5. Tucker Davidson (LHP – ATL)
  6. Logan Gilbert (RHP – SEA)
  7. Edward Cabrera (RHP – MIA)
  8. Jackson Kowar (RHP – KC)
  9. Deivi Garcia (RHP – NYY)
  10. Daniel Lynch (LHP – KC)

HM: Forrest Whitley (SP – HOU), Jhoan Duran (RHP – MIN), Bryan Mata (RHP – BOS)

Media Credit: Ian Cundall, PitcherList, SF Giants, Pitching Ninja, Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire

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