Maybe the second time will be the charm for Jackson Holliday (discussed at the end of the column), who was recalled by the Baltimore Orioles this week. Holliday failed miserably in his first stint with the big club (some would say because he didn’t get enough regular at-bats and wasn’t given a long leash), but now is playing very well. This is often the case with top fantasy baseball rookies. They need to get that little taste, get the nerves out, and learn what it means to be a big-leaguer before they can be productive as a player.
Not everyone can be Paul Skenes or Tyler Fitzgerald right away!
Injuries and trades have hit teams like the Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins, Houston Astros, and Cincinnati Reds, and they are bringing up prospects just to fill holes until their regulars are ready to go. In both situations, fantasy baseball managers are getting long glimpses of players who could have massive fantasy implications. We should be paying attention to all of them.
This weekly piece will track some of the notable performances from rookies during the 2024 season now that we have reached the All-Star break. In dynasty and keeper formats, most of these players will be long gone, but in seasonal leagues, is it worth clogging up a roster spot with a rookie? Diving into their performance this season will hopefully help us look into a little bit of their future.
Fantasy Baseball Rookie Report: Hitters
Jackson Chourio (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)
- .266/.310/.420, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 13 SB, 49 R
Things are looking up for Jackson Chourio. He is hitting .348/.362/.609 in the last 14 days with three home runs and a stolen base. More importantly, he cut his strikeout rate to just 12.8% in that span and is making much better contact.
David Hamilton (SS, Boston Red Sox)
- .257/.307/.395, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 28 SB, 38 R
Simply put, if not for the stolen bases, David Hamilton would not be playable right now. He does have three steals in his last eight games but is also hitting .100/.129/.167 in that time. Hamilton is also seeing the bench more frequently with his struggles at the plate.
Nolan Schanuel (1B, Los Angeles Angels)
- .251/.344/.374, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 4 SB, 44 R
Perhaps the best rookie in on-base percentage over the last two months, Nolan Schanuel has not slowed down in the second half. He is hitting .357/.491/.524 in his last 50 plate appearances, showing an uncanny ability to draw walks (19% walk rate). The power is still lagging compared to his minors production, but it should come around by the end of the season.
Michael Busch (1B, Chicago Cubs)
- .260/.346/.460, 15 HR, 44 RBI, 2 SB, 52 R
Busch has lost his spot as the rookie leader in OPS after a two-week stretch where he only got on base 27.7% of the time. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate reached almost 30% in July and pitchers are beginning to find the holes in his swing. The pop is still here on occasion, but we are a long way from the player who hit a home run in five straight games in April.
Joey Ortiz (3B, Milwaukee Brewers)
- .242/.343/.390, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 6 SB, 37 R
Unlike teammate Jackson Chourio, Joey Ortiz has been in a huge slump over the last two weeks. He is hitting .163/.250/.233 with no home runs. The Brewers are still playing him every day, hoping he will bust out of this slump, but it’s not been a good start to the second half for the talented rookie.
Colton Cowser (OF, Baltimore Orioles)
- .253/.335/.459, 16 HR, 49 RBI, 7 SB, 49 R
Colton Cowser is now a -155 favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, which speaks to the relatively weak field in that league this year. Cowser’s performance has been picking up tremendous steam, however, as he has hit .396/.441/.623 with three homers and 11 RBI over the last two weeks. If he can hold off Luis Gil, Cowser might get the prize we thought other Orioles prospects would take home before the season started.
Ceddanne Rafaela (OF, Boston Red Sox)
- .251/.286/.419, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 16 SB, 55 R
While Ceddanne Rafaela never draws a walk (none in the last 15 days), he is hitting better than he has all season. He is batting .327/.365/.449 with two home runs in the last 12 games and also leads the team with three steals in that span.
Jackson Merrill (SS/OF, San Diego Padres)
- .283/.314/.448, 13 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB, 50 R
Jackson Merrill is having quite a roller coaster year. After a massive slump to start the month of July, Merrill is now hitting .333/.341/.564 since July 21 and has dropped his strikeout rate under 18% in that span. He can’t possibly win the NL Rookie of the Year at this point, but it’s worth noting he is second to Paul Skenes according to oddsmakers (Merrill is at +1400 entering the new week).
Wilyer Abreu (OF, Boston Red Sox)
- .275/.337/.519, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 7 SB, 46 R
Wilyer Abreu is making a late push for darkhorse AL Rookie of the Year Candidate. He is now up to +1100 odds after hitting .345/.394/.655 with two home runs and nine RBI in his last 10 games. Abreu is also just under a 10% walk rate in that time as he is becoming more selective at the plate and making better contact.
Masyn Winn (SS, St. Louis Cardinals)
- .279/.325/.414, 9 HR, 41 RBI, 9 SB, 50 R
Masyn Winn’s massive two-run homerun wasn’t enough against Chicago on Sunday night, but it kept a strong hitting streak alive for the Cardinals’ leadoff man. Winn now has three home runs in the last two weeks and is striking out less than 10% of the time during that stretch.
Wyatt Langford (OF, Texas Rangers)
- .245/.309/.375, 6 HR, 44 RBI, 9 SB, 37 R
What a massive disappointment this rookie season will turn out to be for Wyatt Langford. Unless he can really turn something around in the power department, we will spend all offseason wondering how his pedigree fooled us into thinking this would be a 20/20 player in his first season (and with less than a year of minor league baseball on his record). Langford’s OBP is now under .300 over the last 15 days.
James Wood (OF, Washington Nationals)
- .257/.341/.376, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 3 SB, 13 R
Here comes James Wood! After a slow start to his Major League career, Wood is hitting .273/.373/.432 with a home run and a steal in the last 12 games. He is also collecting doubles and triples, significantly boosting his slugging percentage in that time. The 31% strikeout rate is awful, but he is still adjusting and the numbers are getting better.
Colt Keith (2B, Detroit Tigers)
- .252/.311/.393, 11 HR, 41 RBI, 5 SB, 41 R
Colt Keith has cooled off a little bit since his white hot middle of July, but he is still hitting .255/.340/.426 in the last two weeks and is striking out less than 8% of the time. The best part about Keith’s game right now is his reliability. He has been in the Tigers’ lineup hitting second every game except one since July 14th.
Fantasy Baseball Rookie Report: Pitchers
Spencer Schwellenbach (SP, Atlanta Braves)
- 11 Starts, 64.2 IP, 4 W, 4.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 70 Ks
Spencer Schwellenbach keeps getting stronger and stronger as his rookie season moves along, and it has culminated in back-to-back performances with 10 and 11 strikeouts with only three runs surrendered. He has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his last five starts and now has a seasonal strikeout rate of 9.75 K/9.
Shota Imanaga (SP, Chicago Cubs)
- 20 Starts, 109.2 IP, 8 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 111 Ks
After a run of five excellent starts, Shota Imanaga ran into a hot St. Louis Cardinals team that tagged him for 10 hits, two home runs, and four earned runs on Thursday. It was the first time since June 21 that Imanaga allowed more than six baserunners. With the Cubs trying to make a late push to the Wild Card this season, expect them to keep pushing Imanaga for as many innings as he can give them.
Spencer Arrighetti (SP, Houston Astros)
- 20 Starts, 98.0 IP, 4 W, 5.33 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 116 Ks
Quietly, Spencer Arrighetti is only one start off the lead among all rookies this season. Thanks to a variety of pitching injuries, Arrighetti has started 20 games, but his last few have certainly been his best. Through June 20th, Arrighetti had a 6.36 ERA an allowed opponents to have a .385 on-base percentage against him. Including his immaculate six-inning, one-run, 12 strikeout game on Sunday, Arrighetti has a 3.41 ERA in his last five starts but Houston has only scored five runs in that span as well.
Paul Skenes (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates)
- 14 Starts, 86 IP, 6 W, 1.99 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 107 Ks
Paul Skenes is now +6000 to win NL Rookie of the Year (and is second only to Chris Sale for NL Cy Young), so that race is essentially over. All that remains now is to determine just how dominant Skenes’ rookie season has been compared to the other best rookie pitching seasons of all time. If he keeps his ERA under 2.00, he would be the first starter since Jarred Cosart in 2013 to have a number that low in a full season.
Simeon Woods Richardson (SP, Minnesota Twins)
- 19 Starts, 95.1 IP, 3 W, 3.87 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 84 Ks
Despite six straight starts of three earned runs or less from mid-June to late July, Simeon Woods Richardson has been stuck on three wins for well over a month. He had his worst outing of the season on July 29th, giving up six earned runs to the Mets on the road. The overall numbers still look good, but the strikeouts and ERA have been regressing lately, making him not much more than a bench stash right now.
Luis Gil (SP, New York Yankees)
- 21 Starts, 112.2 IP, 11 W, 3.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 132 Ks
Luis Gil is trying to make a late push to retake the AL Rookie of the Year favorite from Colton Cowser. Gil is at +260 after allowing six total runs in his last four starts, while striking out at least six batters in each of those games. If he can help propel the Yankees to the AL East title, he might just have done enough to win the award.
Who’s Next?
This section will look at any noteworthy rookies who have just debuted, are on the verge of debuting, or might be on their way up soon, and whether they are worth the roster position on your fantasy squads.
Jackson Holliday (2B, Baltimore Orioles) – In his second stint with the Baltimore Orioles, Jackson Holliday already looks miles better than he did during his brief call-up earlier in the summer. He crushed a grand slam on Friday and then went deep again on Sunday as part of a 2-for-5 day with a run, an RBI, and a walk. Now also fully healthy after an elbow injury in late June, Holliday should get a chance to play everyday with Jorge Mateo hurt and Austin Hays and Heston Kjerstad no longer on the Orioles’ roster. If somehow Jackson Holliday is not rostered in your fantasy league after his bad first audition, pay whatever it takes to get him on your roster for the stretch run.
Michael McGreevy (SP, St. Louis Cardinals) – The St. Louis Cardinals needed a spot starter on July 31 against the Texas Rangers thanks to a double-header and full schedule last week. To start that game, the Cardinals called up rookie Michael McGreevy who preceded to allow just one run over seven innings to the World Series champs while striking out three batters. Even though he was sent back to AAA the next day, this performance should almost guarantee we see McGreevy again at some point in the next two months. McGreevy was the 18th overall pick in 2021 and is now in his second year at AAA. With no other level to achieve, he should be part of the Cardinals’ future rotation plans.