This race for the National League Rookie of the Year is going to be a fascinating one. Paul Skenes has perhaps been the best pitcher in the National League, so should he get dinged because he didn’t come up right away or his workload might be managed the rest of the season? Meanwhile, Jackson Merrill started rather slowly but has been the best rookie hitter by a mile over the last three months. In fantasy baseball terms, they have both been phenomenal, especially considering what it likely cost to draft them in the Spring.
For historical comparison, this could be the best Rookie race we have seen since 2007 when Ryan Braun beat out Troy Tulowitzki by just two points in the overall award voting. In 2006, Hanley Ramirez beat Ryan Zimmerman by four votes. This race could be that close (but it SHOULD be Paul Skenes!).
This weekly piece will track some of the notable performances from rookies during the 2024 season now that we are near the end of the fantasy season. In dynasty and keeper formats, most of these players will be long gone, but in seasonal leagues, is it worth clogging up a roster spot with a rookie? Diving into their performance this season will hopefully help us look into a little bit of their future.
Fantasy Baseball Rookie Report: Hitters
Jackson Chourio (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)
- .273/.320/.440, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 18 SB, 61 R
Jackson Chourio continues to prove while he will most likely be drafted in the top six rounds of 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. He hit .320/.370/.480 over the last seven days and is now in sight of a 20/20 season as a rookie.
Spencer Horwitz (2B, Toronto Blue Jays)
- .260/.352/.427, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB, 35 R
Spencer Horwitz has now assumed the cleanup hitter role right after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. so his opportunities with men on base have been increasing. Horwitz had a poor average week (.217), but the power has been consistent and he hit two home runs just in the last seven days.
Nolan Schanuel (1B, Los Angeles Angels)
- .253/.348/.375, 12 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB, 54 R
Nolan Schanuel missed a couple games at the end of this week with an injury, but was otherwise fantastic before that. He hit .353/.476/.471 in five games and continues to be on-base money for those who play in that format.
Michael Busch (1B, Chicago Cubs)
- .256/.343/.444, 16 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB, 59 R
The power has been gone from Michael Busch’s bat for sometime now and he went .217/.308/.261 over the last week with only one double as an extra base hit. He continues to bat second for the Cubs, but his on-base ability has been more valuable than his power lately.
Tyler Fitzgerald (SS, San Francisco Giants)
- .298/.353/.567, 14 HR, 29 RBI, 16 SB, 40 R
We knew he couldn’t keep hitting like Barry Bonds forever. But the regression monster hit Tyler Fitzgerald hard and he is in a major cold slump right now. Over the past week, he hit just .160/.222/.200 with no home runs and two RBI. He does continue to provide value with his legs as he stole two more bases.
Colton Cowser (OF, Baltimore Orioles)
- .249/.325/.452, 19 HR, 57 RBI, 8 SB, 62 R
With Luis Gil headed to the IL, Cowser has surged to the front of the pack in AL Rookie of the Year voting. His -650 odds are more about the absence of other candidates worthy of the award than his magnificent stats. How many in the NL would beat him? Six? Seven? Cowser had a good week hitting .318/.348/.591 and he would have to really stumble to lose the award at this point.
Ceddanne Rafaela (OF, Boston Red Sox)
- .260/.291/.405, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 17 SB, 63 R
Once a darkhorse candidate for AL Rookie of the Year, Ceddanne Rafaela has been struggling significantly at the plate. He is hitting just .182/.182/.318 in his last six games with seven strikeouts.
Jackson Merrill (SS/OF, San Diego Padres)
- .288/.319/.488, 19 HR, 72 RBI, 13 SB, 65 R
Jackson Merrill hit a dramatic walk off home run on Sunday afternoon against the Mets and is now the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year (-180) with the news that Paul Skenes could be limited down the stretch. Is there a wrong answer in this race? We are the real winners as we will get to draft these guys in the first three rounds of fantasy drafts for a decade.
Wilyer Abreu (OF, Boston Red Sox)
- .268/.337/.502, 14 HR, 50 RBI, 7 SB, 52 R
Perhaps taking the torch from teammate Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu is starting to climb in the Rookie of the Year odds thanks to a couple of very strong weeks. He hit .308/.438/.462 over the last week and is now fourth with +3000 odds to win the race.
Masyn Winn (SS, St. Louis Cardinals)
- .278/.325/.415, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 10 SB, 61 R
With a .346 average, Masyn Winn continues to solidify his role as the leadoff man of the future for the St. Louis Cardinals. He doesn’t have much pop or steals lately, but he keeps setting the table and is among the rookie leaders in runs this season.
Jackson Holliday (2B, Baltimore Orioles)
- .175/.230/.342, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 0 SB, 19 R
Right in the middle of a stretch where Jackson Holliday had no hits in 23 plate appearances, he laced a two-out, go-ahead double as a pinch hitter on Saturday to beat the Astros.
James Wood (OF, Washington Nationals)
- .284/.379/.443, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 7 SB, 28 R
How high would you draft James Wood in redraft formats next year? With another two homers and a steal this week, he is proving to be one of the hottest rookies of the last month and has an on-base percentage of .423 over the last seven games. In early draft-and-hold leagues, he has gone as high as the third and fourth round.
Colt Keith (2B, Detroit Tigers)
- .264/.316/.398, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 7 SB, 47 R
Colt Keith had the best week of any rookie last week, which is exactly what he needed after several weeks of abysmal performances at the plate. In the last seven days, Keith hit .385/.429/.577 with a home run, a steal, and seven RBI. He is proving to be a very streaky player, but the numbers are looking solid as the year winds down.
Fantasy Baseball Rookie Report: Pitchers
Spencer Schwellenbach (SP, Atlanta Braves)
- 14 Starts, 82.1 IP, 5 W, 3.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 94 Ks
Spencer Schwellenbach put up another fantastic performance this week with nine strikeouts and just two runs in 6.2 innings. He has been a savior for the Braves rotation that has been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness.
Shota Imanaga (SP, Chicago Cubs)
- 24 Starts, 140.1 IP, 10 W, 3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 140 Ks
The strikeouts have fallen off significantly from earlier in the season for Shota Imanaga, but he is now winning games again and pitched well this week over seven innings against the Marlins allowing just four hits and two walks in seven innings pitched.
Spencer Arrighetti (SP, Houston Astros)
- 23 Starts, 116.2 IP, 6 W, 4.94 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 140 Ks
Even though he has three double-digit strikeout games on his ledger, Spencer Arrighetti’s most impressive outing may have been when he shut down the Orioles for no runs and just three hits across six innings on Thursday. He is getting better and better each start.
Paul Skenes (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates)
- 17 Starts, 104 IP, 8 W, 2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 130 Ks
The management for the Pirates has now said that Skenes is on an “unspecified” innings restriction, meaning he could get shut down at any time this season. This comes on the heels of another dominant performance against the Reds last week. The plan has to be we keep rolling him out and hoping they let him go at least five innings each game so he can get wins.
Simeon Woods Richardson (SP, Minnesota Twins)
- 22 Starts, 112.1 IP, 5 W, 3.69 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 99 Ks
While nowhere near the strikeout pitcher of someone like Luis Gil or Paul Skenes, Simeon Woods Richardson has been one of the most reliable starters on the season, and now has back-to-back wins to show for it. With the offensive firepower the Twins have, Woods Richardson could be in line for more wins as Minnesota tries to lock up a playoff spot.
Luis Gil (SP, New York Yankees)
- 24 Starts, 124.2 IP, 12 W, 3.39 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 144 Ks
Luis Gil is now on the 15-day IL with an injury and he could be out longer depending on how hard the Yankees want to push him with the playoffs still to come this year. His chances to win the AL Rookie of the Year have now tumbled, but that’s the least of his concerns as September approaches.
Tobias Myers (SP, Milwaukee Brewers)
- 20 Starts, 103.1 IP, 6 W, 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 90 Ks
The Cardinals got to Tobias Myers for six hits and two walks in four innings in his last start. However, Myers still has not allowed more than two earned runs since a start on July 4th and he has one of the best ERAs of all rookie pitchers this season.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers)
- 14 Starts, 74.0 IP, 6 W, 2.92 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 84 Ks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has not pitched since June 15th with a rotator cuff injury, but has been cleared to begin a rehab assignment. That will begin on Wednesday and it’s possible Yamamoto could join the Dodgers for the majority of September.
Who’s Next?
This section will look at any noteworthy rookies who have just debuted, are on the verge of debuting, or might be on their way up soon, and whether they are worth the roster position on your fantasy squads.
Jose Tena (3B/SS, Washington Nationals) – Partly because of injuries and partly because of the team moving on from veterans, the Washington Nationals are going full youth brigade to end the 2024 season. Jose Tena came up last week and was hitting .359/.390/.462 with a homer and a stolen base over 13 total games this season (Tena was a part of the Lane Thomas trade and came from Cleveland). Tena has been a nice source of power and speed in the minor leagues and is just 23 years old despite being in professional baseball since 2018.
Dylan Crews (OF, Washington Nationals) – Dylan Crews, the highly touted drafted out of LSU, is going to make his MLB debut this week. So far across two minor league levels in 2024, Crews has 13 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and 68 RBI. He will slot in the spot left behind by Alex Call going on the IL two days ago. This is a player with plus power and speed, a strong ability to get on base, and someone who struck out only 17% of the time in AAA across 49 games.