Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitcher Points League Rankings

What can we expect from starting pitchers to start the season?

It’s been quite a hectic time to be a pitcher. From the lay-off in 2020 due to the COVID-19 shutdown to a quick ramp-up to adjusting back to a normal 162-game season, we’ve seen a lot of chaos when it comes to injuries for starting pitchers. Now, pitchers are in different shapes due to there not being a clear opening day date during the lockout, so there’s a chance they aren’t up to speed by April 7.

Hopefully, this doesn’t come back to bite us heavily in fantasy baseball! For the most part, fantasy baseball content tends to be focused around category/roto leagues. Nevertheless, if you surveyed all fantasy baseball players, I would bet that a majority of them play in points leagues.

What makes this an interesting development is that points leagues and roto leagues are vastly different from one another. In roto leagues, the goal is to hit certain benchmarks in specific categories; for pitchers, this is generally ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, wins, and saves. On the contrary, in points leagues, you can simply draft the player who’ll score the most points, regardless of how they accumulate them.

With that addressed, it is time for us to take a look at how players are going to produce from a points league perspective. Usually, this is done through standard rankings, which use data and gut feeling to order the players in terms of most value to least value. However, I believe we can be even more effective if we break it down further.

What do I mean by this? Instead of standard rankings, these are my own manual projections, with a full explanation here. There may be players that I prefer that are ranked below certain players, but I want to establish enough objectivity to go with the subjective touch of manual projections.

With that, let us get to the rankings! Today, we’ll be looking at starting pitchers. Due to the circumstances at hand, a lot of pitching depth is going to be required here. Plus, in points leagues, pitching is valued even heavier, so you won’t want to forget to supplement your pitching staff consistently with talented players.

So, which starting pitchers should you be targeting or avoiding? Which starting pitchers get a boost or drop-off in points leagues as compared to category leagues. Let us dive into it!

Stats via Fangraphs and Baseball Savant

Category League Starting Pitchers Projections & Tiers: Part One and Part Two

2022 Points League Starting Pitcher Rankings

Who Gets a Boost In Points Leagues?

As you can see, points leagues tend to favor pitchers who are going to accumulate a lot of innings, even if they aren’t the most exciting options in terms of strikeouts or strong ratios. Hey, all points count the same!

• Merrill Kelly, Madison Bumgarner, Kyle Gibson, and Chris Flexen all fall into a similar category as streaming options due to the innings that they are going to eat up. With that in mind, the fact that Gibson will open up facing the Oakland A’s and Miami Marlins to start the season makes him an interesting stash to help you win your first week. Kelly, meanwhile, is reportedly sitting 94-95 MPH with his fastball, and goes deep in games due to his ability to limit walks. Suddenly, the added velocity also gives him extra upside.
• A points league format is the perfect time to roster German Marquez. He’s a very tricky player to roster pitching half of his games in Colorado, though the floor he provides in terms of innings pitched makes him someone you can consistently start; you’ll get plus points most likely unless the matchup is very poor (Dodgers in Colorado); in roto leagues, you have to worry about him hurting your ratio statistic in certain situations. He’s a ground-ball inducer who pounds the zone, allowing him to go deep into games as long as he doesn’t have a “blow up” outing- he averaged over six innings per start in the two innings prior to last year. He’ll always be someone that you’re a little tepid to roster, but if there was a time to do so, it’s when you’re playing in a points league.
• All aboard the Casey Mize train? His fastball (25.3% whiff, .332 expected weighted-on base average allowed/xwOBA) is a far superior pitch to his sinker (13.1% whiff, .412 xwOBA), yet he threw the two pitches at a similar rate. This spring training, though, he has ditched the sinker, allowing him to work north-south with his fastball, slider, and splitter. There is notable upside here, and his command allows him to work deep in games, as long as the effectiveness is there. As someone not being drafted as a top-80 starter, he’s definitely worth the dart throw.
• Innings eaters Marcus Stroman, Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke, and Marco Gonzales all are much more valuable in this format. Stroman was one of the top underachievers of his expected strikeout rate, and is definitely the most intriguing pitcher of this group. Meanwhile, Wainwright and Greinke fall into a similar bucket as older pitchers playing in strong home ballparks who won’t be “flashy options”, but provide innings of productive-enough quality, leading to points scored! The same can also be mainly stated for Gonzales, though he’s coming off a very poor season in terms of his underlying numbers. He’s a bit of a mystery (will he get back to inducing ground balls or continue to live up in the zone with his sinker), but the innings and ballpark provide him with a very steady floor.
• Can Jon Gray become the pitcher we’ve waited for him to be since he was drafted with the third overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft? He goes from pitching in Colorado to one of the more favorable pitcher’s ballparks, which is definitely a bonus and should lead to a lower WHIP. Plus, perhaps the Rangers can coax him into ditching his ineffective changeup and even raising the usage of his superb slider (38.8% whiff) further, especially if his arsenal plays up outside of Colorado. This reminds me of the situation of Anthony Desclafani, who flourished after leaving a tough environment in Cincinnati for San Francisco, who helped him increase the usage of his effective slider further, leading to a career-best season and a new three-year contract. Both fall into a similar boat of pitchers who may not “light the world on fire”, but will provide quality starts in the right situations and be a definite net positive for your pitching staff.
• José Berríos and Frankie Montas each take a notable step up in points leagues. Both are fine targets in roto leagues, but the innings they should provide solidify them as top-20 starters in points leagues. Berrios was a massive overachiever in his expected strikeout rate, and is more of an accumulator than someone providing elite ratios; hey, that’s exactly what works in this format!
• Framber Valdez is someone I find a little difficult to roster in roto formats even when he would appear to be a value pick, as his high WHIP can hurt you in that category and be hard to compensate. He averaged over six innings per start last season and is able to limit homers due to an absurd 70.4% ground ball rate. In a format where you don’t have to worry about his high WHIP, he’s a tremendous target.

Whose Value Decreases In Points Leagues?

On the contrary, pitchers who don’t provide quantity fall down in points leagues, even if they are efficient on a per-inning basis:

• Shane Baz and Aaron Ashby each are exciting young pitchers who are strong assets in dynasty leagues, but there are definite concerns about the number of innings they’ll pitch this year. Baz was recently shut down after he underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow, and already was going to be on an innings limit. Meanwhile, Ashby doesn’t appear to have a spot in the rotation. He could easily be this year’s Freddy Peralta, but he’ll need the opportunity to make good on that.
• Let’s head out to the NL West, where we hope to get fully healthy seasons from Clayton Kershaw and Mike Clevinger. Kershaw is back in Los Angeles but dealt with multiple injuries (forearm, elbow) that may continue to linger, and the Dodgers would be advised to limit his workload. Clevinger, meanwhile, is coming back from Tommy John surgery; he’s been a top-notch performer when healthy, though we’ll have to see what his workload is post-surgery. Clevinger (SP #67 on ESPN) is a nice value right now, as all of the concerns about him seem to be baked into a low price.
• This certainly isn’t the format to roster Rays pitchers in. In addition to Baz, Drew Rasmussen and Luis Patino each lose value in points leagues. Rasmussen’s fastball and slider rate out well with the underlying metrics, but it didn’t translate to the games with an 18.2% strikeout rate as a starter. The same goes for Luis Patino, with a very vertical fastball and multiple sliders, but that didn’t turn into inspiring results. This season, I’d consider both to be fascinating upside picks later on, but more so in roto leagues than points leagues.
• Jose Urquidy is a fascinating pitcher to evaluate. He doesn’t walk many batters (4.5%) at all, and his ability to induce a lot of weakly-hit balls in air limits his batting average allowed. In other words, he can offer value in roto leagues due to a low WHIP and acceptable ERA. That being said, as someone projected to throw under 140 innings without much strikeout upside, he’s not the type of pitcher who gets boosted in this format.
• Similarly to the Rays, the Twins also have some intriguing young pitchers to build around. Joe Ryan actually came from the Rays, and possesses a rising fastball that induces swings and misses and a lot of pop-ups; that, combined with his low walk rate, will lead to a low WHIP, though he isn’t a sure thing to pitch many innings this year. The same can be said about Bailey Ober, though it is interesting that Ober is going before Ryan in ESPN drafts. Ryan is projected to strike out more batters, induce more pop-ups to lower the batting average allowed, and also has less of a home run problem. Based on that, Ryan becomes the superior target to Ober; he would appear the better pitcher, and also comes at a cheaper price.

Top Target: Eduardo Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers

I’m generally a little wary of targeting free-agent players in their first year with a new team after signing with a new team. Yet, despite that, I’m willing to dismiss those concerns and make an exception for Eduardo Rodriguez.

Between Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, and Carlos Rodon, there were a lot of talented free-agent pitchers available, However, we shouldn’t overlook Rodriguez, who signed a five-year, $77 million contract with the Tigers. With that investment, Detroit is hoping that he can front a young rotation and be someone they can rely on to produce at a consistent level. I’m inclined to agree with their choice.

The story of Rodriguez starts in 2019. Early in his career, he was making a lot of gains when it came to missing bats, but couldn’t put it together for a full season of strong production. That was the case until 2019, when he pitched 203.1 innings with a 3.81 ERA- the combination of volume with enough efficiency is all Red Sox could’ve asked for.

Then came 2020, when Rodriguez was diagnosed with myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscles. Not only did he miss all of the shortened season, but there were some questions about his future. Fortunately, he was able to make a full recovery, pitching 157.2 innings in 2021.

When you see that come with a 4.74 ERA, you may figure that Rodriguez had a down season in 2021, and that the Tigers’ faith in him may be uncalled for. However, that couldn’t be further from the case. See, K-BB ratio and skill interactive ERA (SIERA) have been found to be the two best ERA indicators when predicting future ERA, and Rodriguez checks both boxes there; among starting pitchers with 120 innings, he was tied for 19th in K-BB ratio (20.4%), while his 3.65 SIERA was the 21st-best.

So, what went wrong. Well, Rodriguez allowed an absurdly high .363 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), while he also didn’t leave as many runners on base (68.9%) as you’d hope for. Ironically, this is a pitcher who induces an exceptional amount of soft contact consistently, so you’d expect a much lower BABIP allowed. By simply being on the right side of variance, Rodriguez will take a major step forward in 2022.

Plus, the situation is also better for Rodriguez in Detroit. Fenway Park (Boston) has a very high park factor (third-highest) when it comes to batting average on contact, but Comerica Park (Detroit) is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Plus, having Javier Báez as the shortstop rather than Xander Bogaerts will be key for a ground-ball-inducing left-handed pitcher, which should help the ERA further.

Given some of the limitations of the rest of their rotation and the money they spent on him, the Tigers have no reason not to stretch out Rodriguez as much as possible. Although he had only 157.2 innings last season, he made 31 starts, and the innings per start should dramatically be better with improved luck. While there are still trepidations about his high ERA from last year, take full advantage!

Top Fade: Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds

Oftentimes, it can be hard to separate real-life value from fantasy value for a pitcher. At the end of the day, though, we have to remember one hard cold truth: we are drafting a player for their statistics, not for their underlying talent level.

This leads me to Tyler Mahle. With a 27.7% strikeout rate and a 3.82 SIERA last season, there is a good reason why many teams have been rumored to be interested in trading for him- he’s a talented pitcher who appears to be on the rise. Unfortunately, though, outside of being a member of the Rockies, he’s in the worst situation possible.

Based on Baseball Savant park factors, Great American ballpark is the third-most friendly for hitters, as well as the #1 park factor for home runs. With that in mind, Mahle’s 1.2 HR/9 for last year would appear to be closer to the floor, especially since he’s essentially league average in terms of inducing ground balls (44%). Furthermore, the Reds, based on defensive runs saved, were the sixth-worst defensive team last year. There’s nothing to suggest the defense will be better this season, which will likely make it hard for Mahle to sustain a .297 BABIP allowed.

Meanwhile, there are other indicators that Mahle’s 3.75 ERA may be closer to his peak as long as he’s on the Reds. For starters, his 77.6% left-on-base rate is on the high side and is projected to come down significantly this year. Meanwhile, he overachieved his expected strikeout rate by more than two percentage points, which is slightly concerning; strikeouts are something he’s going to need in his favor to overcome these circumstances.

I’d also consider Mahle’s 180 innings pitched the ceiling for him. It came in 33 starts, so he wasn’t particularly efficient per start, and that was with him being closer to the right side of variance. Thus, we cannot trust him to be a traditional accumulator for points leagues, especially with the efficiency in great danger given his situation.

He’s a very talented pitcher, but it’s hard to draft Mahle as a top-30 one, as is the case currently in ESPN formats. There are similarly talented pitchers in better situations (Rodriguez, for instance) going around him or after him, and I’d prefer to not have to deal with the volatility that Mahle is going to go through in that ballpark in a head-to-head league. Perhaps he’ll be out of Cincinnati next season, but, for now, we have to deal with the circumstances at hand.