Value is the name of the game in fantasy baseball drafts. It doesn’t matter if you’re at pick 10, 110, or 310, you’re always looking to add value to your team. If you draft enough players that have a positive ROI, you’re likely going to have success in your league(s). It’s that simple. Finding that value on both sides is crucial, and that starts right at the beginning of your drafts. Below are four pitchers that are great fantasy baseball values at their ADP this season that I’ve been targeting in each and every one of my drafts.
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Fantasy Baseball Values Inside the Top-150 ADP: Pitchers
Sandy Alcantara, MIA
Out of all the pitchers being drafted within the top-100 this season, Sandy Alcantara is the name I have the most shares of. I’m all in on Alcantara in 2022 and beyond, and my ranking him as my #7 starter for 2022 shows that. His current ADP of 36.1 isn’t exactly what I would consider a steal, but it’s a solid value when you consider that he’s the 15th arm off the board.
Alcantara checks off all the boxes I look for when drafting an ace for my pitching staff. He gives you both quantity and quality with improving metrics. Alcantara was one of only four pitchers to exceed 200 innings last season and all of the stat projection systems have him exceeding 190 innings again this season. In today’s game, 180 is the new 200 when it comes to workloads and 200 is the new 225. But not only does Alcantara give you the workload that few others do, but he’s also slowly been developing into one of the best pitchers in the game.
Early on in the 2021 season, Alcantara was posting solid ratios, but the strikeout rate wasn’t quite where we hoped. Here are his monthly breakdowns for ERA and strikeout rate:
As the ERA steadily improved throughout the season, Alcantara’s strikeout rate was struggling to find its identity. League-average, below-average, above-average, make up your damn mind! Well, part of that fluctuation can be attributed to Alcantara altering his pitch mix frequently to try and find the ideal mix.
| Month | 4-Seam | Sinker | Slider | Changeup | Curveball |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 27.9% | 25.9% | 19.7% | 21.1% | 5.3% |
| May | 18.4% | 22.6% | 18.4% | 36.1% | 4.5% |
| June | 10.1% | 38.0% | 23.4% | 24.1% | 4.4% |
| July | 20.7% | 34.8% | 20.4% | 22.9% | 1.1% |
| August | 27.2% | 19.8% | 29.2% | 23.6% | 0.2% |
| September | 24.2% | 29.6% | 30.4% | 15.7% | 0.0% |
Alcantara got a bit sinker-happy in the middle months, which is his lowest whiff rate offering. That usage rate went down in August and September, along with the changeup in September, while Alcantara began relying on his slider more consistently. As his best bat-missing pitch, Alcantara’s whiff rate began to rise and the strikeout rate went along for the ride. Alcantara blossomed into one of the game’s best pitchers over the final two months of the season.
From 8/1 on, Alcantara posted a 3.04 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 28.4% strikeout rate while averaging 6.7 innings per start over 12 outings. On top of that, out of the 113 pitchers with 40+ innings over that span, Alcantara ranked 8th in SwStr, 14th in K%, 8th in K-BB%, and 3rd in O-Swing with the 13th lowest contact rate and 24th lowest zone contact rate. If Alcantara’s late-season whiff and K rate improvements stick in 2022, he could be just as valuable as Zack Wheeler, possibly finishing as a top-5 arm.
Logan Webb, SFG
Admittedly, I was a bit slow to board the Logan Webb train and almost missed it. But now, I’m all-in on the new San Francisco Giants ace. Webb dazzled all season, gaining momentum as the season wore on. Overall, he pitched to the tune of a 3.08 and 1.11 WHIP in 148.1 innings with a 6.0% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate. That 20.5% K-BB rate ranked 16th best last season among starters with 140+ innings. Webb was even more impressive in the 2nd half, recording a 2.71 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 21.4 K-BB%. All ERA indicators backed up his performance as well with some even lower than his surface ERA.
100+ balls in play with an average launch angle no higher than -5 degrees? There were only FOURTEEN pitches across all of MLB like that last year and Logan Webb owned two of them (sinker and changeup)! pic.twitter.com/nM9eA7TAZL
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 3, 2022
Webb’s arsenal consists of a sinker, four-seamer, slider and changeup with a seldom-used curve as well. That sinker registered a .276 BAA, but it was mostly weak contact and hammered into the ground. Quite frequently I might add. Webb generated a whopping 62.2% groundball rate last season which was only topped by Framber Valdez who I swear uses magnets to get that insane 70+% GB rate.
The other two pitches used more than 10% of the time were his slider and changeup. That slider was very effective last season, recording a .156 BAA, .231 SLG, and a 47.1% whiff rate. As was the case with the fastball, Webb’s changeup had a slightly higher BAA, but the SLG and wOBA were only .365 and .293 respectively. Webb commanded all three pitches well, which was influential to his success.
Frankly, I’m not sure there’s another level for Webb to reach in the strikeout department. His whiff and chase rates were both above average but he really doesn’t have that second big whiff rate pitch to rely on outside of the slider. However, maintaining his current chase, whiff, and strikeout rates feels attainable. The same can be said for his stellar ratios.
Where I’m expecting the biggest jump is in the innings pitched department. Between the regular season and postseason in 2021, Webb combined to throw 163 innings and could easily top 180 in 2021. If he maintains his ratios and strikeout rate while topping 180 innings, Webb could finish as a top-10 arm and is currently being taken as the 22nd pitcher and 17th starter off the board with an ADP of 56.5 on NFBC and 58.8 on Fantrax. Invest with confidence.
Trevor Rogers, MIA
Yes, I’m certainly drinking the Miami Kool-Aid when it comes to pitchers. As I mentioned on our SP preview on Fantrax Toolshed, I fully believe that Trevor Rogers’ ADP would be 20-25 spots higher if he didn’t miss over a month of time down the stretch last season due to a personal family matter. Overall, Rogers made 25 starts and was masterful. In 133 innings, Rogers recorded a 2.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 28.5% strikeout rate. His FIP ranked 2nd to only Corbin Burnes among pitchers with 125+ innings in 2021, although, his xFIP and SIERA were both around a full run higher.
Trevor Rogers, Filthy 84mph Changeup. 😷 pic.twitter.com/WawyfId7Gu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 11, 2021
Rogers excelled last season due to a combination of limiting hard contact, limiting home runs, and missing bats. Hitters only managed a 5% barrel rate, five homers, and an 87.7 mph AVG EV last season against Rogers who was also in the top-10 for lowest contact rate and zone contact rate allowed. And when it came to missing bats and getting hitters to chase, Rogers performed well in those departments as well. Rogers posted a 29.8% chase rate, 30.7% whiff rate, and a 14.0% SwStr rate last season, all above league average. All three of Rogers’ pitchers — a four-seamer, slider, and changeup — missed bats at a decent rate last season with his slider leading the way at 40.8%.
Most stat projection systems have Rogers around 150 innings, a 3.50 ERA, and a 26% strikeout rate in 2022. If he comes close to those numbers, his current ADP around pick 85 will be about right. But if he exceeds those projections, Rogers will look like an absolute steal. As the 38th pitcher and 27th starter off the board this season, I’m more than willing to select Rogers in that range and bank on him outperforming those projections.
Chris Bassitt, OAK
Can we just take a quick second to appreciate how underrated Chris Bassitt is? Since the start of the 2020 season, Bassitt has recorded the 7th best ERA in the league at 2.90. The names he’s behind are the usual studs you see in the first few rounds of drafts like Burnes, Buehler, Woodruff, Wheeler, and Scherzer along with Max Fried. Bassitt also has a solid 1.08 WHIP and 23.8% strikeout rate over that timeframe. That strikeout rate is around league average, but improved in 2021 to a career-best 25%. Bassitt also recorded a career-best 6.1% walk rate along with it.
As with Rogers above, Bassitt’s ADP would likely be higher if he didn’t miss over a month of time after taking a line drive off the head. Let me repeat that; A LINE DRIVE OFF HIS HEAD. Talk about a gamer and a warrior. For Bassitt to come back for two starts in late September for a team nearly eliminated from postseason contention is truly remarkable. If that freak injury never happened and Bassitt added another 5-6 starts at his 2021 performance levels, we’d likely be talking about him inside the top-100 ADP this draft season, or at least damn close to it. Instead, his ADP is currently close to pick 140 as the 41st starter off the board.
Bassitt is more than capable of posting another low-3 ERA with around a 1.10 WHIP and a 25% strikeout rate while exceeding 180 innings. That’s an easy profile to target where he’s going in drafts.
Media Credit: Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire, Baseball Savant, Codify, Rob Friedman
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