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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Adds for Week 21

By Taylor Tarter
Ryan Jeffers Fantasy Baseball Late-Round Breakout Catchers

Here are some waiver wire targets ahead of Week 21 that you should consider adding. The following recommendations are organized as deep and shallow league targets. Of course, the players you choose to add and drop from your team should largely depend on your league size and the roster construction of your team.

More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Recommendations

Deep League Targets

C Ryan Jeffers – MIN

Ryan Jeffers has outperformed his catching counterpart Christian Vazquez in Minnesota. Jeffers has nine homers, 30 runs, 25 RBI, three steals, and a .280 AVG. He has outdone Vazquez in every roto category and earned playing time over him.

Jeffers’ .280 AVG comes with a .382 BABIP compared to a .304 career BABIP. That increase in BABIP comes without any major improvements to his line drive or pull rates, although both are nearly identical to his career norms. What that does mean for Jeffers is that his AVG will likely experience some regression. Even still, Jeffers has the skills to keep his AVG above his .230-.240 projections for the rest of the season.

Jeffers clobbers the ball – his 11% barrel rate and 44% HardHit rate would each rank fourth among qualified catchers if he qualified. He has a 17% HR/FB rate and a 40% FB rate, both identical to his career norms. This suggests his rate of home runs is right on target. He should keep hitting bombs like this one:

Jeffers is on the way to arguably his best season in the majors. Now is the time for fantasy managers to add him from the waiver wire.

1B/3B Mike Moustakas – LAA

This is officially a Mike Moustakas stan column. He is still incredibly undervalued and under-rostered. Moustakas has 11 homers, 39 runs, 41 RBI, and a .272 AVG. He has been particularly hot over the last 15 days, tallying two homers, four runs, 11 RBI, and a .318 AVG. Here is the more recent of his last two homers:

Upon first look, many will note Moose’s .324 BABIP sitting 60 points higher than his career BABIP. Normally, that would be an issue, but Moustakas has upped his line drive rate to nearly 22% – a career-high. He also has maintained nearly an identical pull rate to his career rate. Those metrics support a higher BABIP, and in turn, a higher AVG.

Moustakas has also increased his barrel rate for the third season in a row and has a 41% HardHit rate (the second highest of his career). Considering how well he has driven and pulled the ball, combined with his hard contact, Moustakas should be able to sustain a high BABIP.

Moose also made improvements to his chase and overall contact rates. His contact rate on pitches outside of the strike zone is still a bit lower than his career rate. Despite that, he has made clear improvements at the plate that have allowed for a stellar season.

Trust what Moustakas has produced this season, and expect more of it going forwards. Add him from the waiver wire as soon as possible.

2B Nicky Lopez (3B/SS) – ATL

With Ozzie Albies landing on the IL, Nicky Lopez stands to benefit from the situation. On the season, he has one homer, 24 runs, 21 RBI, five steals, and a .232 AVG. Lopez may have to compete for at-bats with Vaughn Grissom, but Lopez should get the lion’s share as a lefty hitter.

Lopez has played in five of Atlanta’s last six games, tallying a homer, four runs, eight RBI, a steal, and a .412 AVG. Hitting like that should also help his case for earning playing time over Grissom. This should help give perspective to how hot Lopez has been:

Lopez is not a hard hitter, with just 14 barreled balls in his career. But he is an excellent contact hitter. In his best season in 2021, he played 151 games and batted .300 with 22 steals. He had a sky-high BABIP that year, but he is the type of player who can sustain a BABIP above .300.

Lopez has a career 20% LD rate and a career 32% pull rate. He has outperformed his career norms this season, driving the ball 23% of the time and pulling it 37% of the time. His career BABIP is .290 and his season BABIP is .280. This suggests that with more playing time, we could start to see both his BABIP and AVG rise.

He has an uncharacteristically low contact rate on pitches outside of the strike zone despite chasing fewer balls. More consistent at-bats could lead to some positive regression there and also help his AVG climb.

This is the time to add Lopez from the waiver wire before he really starts heating up and others get him.

OF Drew Waters – KC

Drew Waters seems to have found his stride this season. He has seven homers, 28 runs, 23 RBI, seven steals, and a .240 AVG. Over the last 15 days, he has picked up 3 home runs, six runs, seven RBI, and two steals with a .257 AVG.

Waters has improved in many ways from his 32-game stint with the Royals last season. While his strikeout rate is still above 30%, it is better than last year. One issue keeping him from getting that K% down is that he has been more aggressive at the plate, swinging at nearly 50% of pitches. If he can get that down to where it was last season (46%), it could improve his contact rate and AVG.

Where Waters has done well this season is in his hard contact and batted ball data. Waters does not qualify, but would tie Bryan Reynolds for the 14th highest barrel rate among qualified outfielders at 11.9%. That is down just .4% from last season. He increased his barrel rate, though, to 37%. That is slightly below league average, but a major jump from 28% last season.

Waters has also driven the ball better this season. He has a 21% LD rate, while maintaining a solid 42% pull rate, close to his career total. That data supports his high BABIP and should help keep his AVG from falling below its current point.

One area where Waters could improve over the rest of the season is in his home run rate. Despite increasing his flyball rate from 34% to 41%, Waters has a lower HR/FB rate this season than last. That could experience some positive regression the rest of the way.

With Waters’ ability to steal, and the likelihood that he could reach double-digit homers, he is an incredibly valuable asset that is widely available on the waiver wire. Fantasy managers should consider adding him now.

SP Paul Blackburn – OAK

In 72.2 IP this season, Paul Blackburn is 3-3 with a 74:26 K:BB ratio. He has a 4.09 ERA despite some of the best numbers of his career.

Blackburn has a 9.1 K/9 rate, the highest of his career. One reason for the uptick in his strikeout rate could be an increase in his slider usage. Blackburn has tossed his slider 13% more often this season than last. It has a .203 batting average against with a 34% whiff rate and a 26% putaway rate. Here is a look at it in action:

His curveball has also been exceptional, with a .152 BAA, 25% whiff rate, and 16% putaway rate.

Blackburn has done well at stranding baserunners with a 75% LOB rate. His 40% GB rate should experience some positive regression as it is nearly 10% lower than his career norm.

He should also experience some positive regression to his ERA as the season rolls on, considering his BABIP sits at .360. He could even outperform his 4.12 xFIP and 4.27 SIERA over the rest of the season if he keeps his strikeout rate up.

Even though he plays for Oakland and may have his limitations with wins, Blackburn should still perform well enough over the rest of the season to warrant being added in more leagues. If he is still on the waiver wire in your league, you should add him now.

Shallow League Targets

C Mitch Garver – TEX

Even while sharing catching duties with Jonah Heim, Mitch Garver should be a target this week in fantasy leagues. He has eight homers, 22 runs, 31 RBI, and a .293 AVG this season. Across the last seven days, Garver has a home run, three runs, five RBI, and a .471 AVG, showing no signs of slowing down. Here is his latest bomb:

Jeffers can attribute excellent hard contact for his power output this season. His eight homers have come in just 58 games. They are in large part due to his 13% barrel rate and 46% HardHit rates – both the third highest of his career. They would rank first and third respectively this season among qualified catchers if he had enough PAs to qualify.

Garver has also posted a career-best 24% LD rate and an impressive 48% pull rate. Those numbers help to explain the high BABIP, though .381 may be unsustainable. Even if it drops some, Garver has excellent plate discipline data including a 20% chase rate and a 79% contact rate. Those should help keep his AVG up above the .230-.250 projections for the rest of the season.

Garver is a great fantasy option at catcher and should be added from the waiver wire where available.

1B Spencer Torkelson – DET

Spencer Torkelson should be rostered more widely, despite possessing just a .230 AVG on the season. He has 21 homers, 61 runs, 66 RBI, and two steals. He has six homers in his last seven games:

If anyone has underperformed this season, it is Spencer Torkelson. Tork has a .253 xBA, which makes sense, considering he has just a .260 BABIP. That BABIP comes with a 21% LD rate and a 47% pull rate, both higher than last year’s numbers and higher than his career totals. Last season his BABIP was .255, and his career BABIP is .261. Torkelson could experience some positive regression to his AVG the rest of the way to get him closer to that expected AVG.

Tork also has incredible hard contact. His 14% barrel rate ranks 14th among all qualified hitters and his 52% HardHit rate ranks 11th. That hard contact has helped Torkelson to the 15th most home runs in baseball (including ties).

The young first baseman has also made strides in plate discipline, improving his chase and contact rates over last year. With his plate discipline improving, along with his hard contact, he should be able to sustain a higher AVG.

Go scoop up Torkelson off the waiver wire now, before someone else does.

2B Zack Gelof – OAK

If this column is a Moustakas stan column, then it is also a Zack Gelof stan column.

Gelof continues to get better game after game. He has eight home runs, 20 runs, 16 RBI, seven steals, and a .294 AVG on the season. He has been incredibly hot over the last seven days, tallying two homers, five runs, five RBI, a steal, and a .440 AVG.

Gelof has shown the ability to hit for power and to steal throughout the minors. He had 7 homers and 11 steals in 2021, 18/10 in 2022, and 12/20 this year before getting the call.

Gelof’s .353 BABIP is pretty high, but a few factors suggest it could be sustainable, along with his AVG. Gelof has a 30% LD rate, which is incredibly high. He also has a 44% pull rate. Gelof has also sustained high BABIPs throughout the minors. All of that suggests his BABIP and AVG can remain high.

Gelof also has impressive hard contact data, barreling the ball 14.5% of the time with a 46% HardHit rate. Those would rank second and third respectively among qualified second basemen if he qualified.

This is a breakout season for Gelof, who could reach double-digit homers and steals at his current pace. He could be extremely valuable to fantasy managers over the last few weeks of the season. Gelof should be a waiver wire priority where available.

OF Tommy Pham – ARI

Tommy Pham has been hot over the last seven days, tallying a homer, six runs, six RBI, a steal, and a .350 AVG over that span. On the season, he has 11 homers, 35 runs, 44 RBI, 14 steals, and a .265 AVG. Here is his latest homer, his first for the Diamondbacks:

Pham is another player who is rostered in far too few leagues considering his performance and abilities, as well as the improvements he has made from last season.

Pham added to his walk rate and dropped his strikeout rate by nearly 6% from last season. He improved his plate discipline from last year, dropping his chase rate to 22%. That would be the 10th-best chase rate in baseball if he qualified. He also has a 78% contact rate, an improvement over last year as well.

Other improvements include his line drive rate, which is up to 23% – higher than last season and his career norm – and a 39% pull rate (second highest of his career). Those stats should help to sustain a high BABIP and AVG, yet his BABIP is just one point higher than last season and lower than his career BABIP. And his AVG this season is only five points higher than his career AVG. That could explain why his expected batting average sits at .292.

Pham also seems to be underperforming in terms of home run output. He has an 11% barrel rate and a 47% HardHit rate. His FB% is above his career norm, but his HR/FB rate is about 2% lower than his career average rate. This could mean that his home run pace speeds up over the last weeks of the season.

Pham needs to be added in more leagues, and if he is on your waiver wire, you should pick him up.

SP Chase Silseth – LAA

Chase Silseth has appeared in more games as a reliever than a starter this season, but his numbers look excellent no matter his role.

Silseth has a 3.27 ERA across 41.1 IP, with a 46:18 K:BB ratio. He has made huge improvements since last season that have led to a much better performance.

Silseth has a 10 K/9 rate, up from 7 last season. His slider and splitter possess remarkably close data points to last season, but his fastball has improved immensely. This could be a major reason for his increase in strikeout rate. His fastball went from a 20% whiff rate and 9% putaway rate last season to 25% and 21% respectively this season. He also added spin and velocity, making it a much better pitch and a pitch he can rely on for strikeouts and outs.

Silseth also added 10% to his LOB rate from last season, taking it up to 79% this year. He has a 53% GB rate, up from 46% last year. A 3.9 BB/9 rate and a 50% pull rate are among the very few blemishes on an otherwise great profile for Silseth.

While his BABIP is low at .248 and should experience some regression, Silseth has limited batters to an 18% LD rate, which should keep his BABIP from ballooning. He also has a 23% HR/FB rate, which is double the typical league average rate, so that should experience some positive regression and help out his ERA.

His xFIP and SIERA are both above 3.50, but with the way he has been pitching, they may just not have caught up to his improvements. Silseth could outperform both metrics the rest of the way. He is an excellent target for fantasy managers looking for pitching help on the waiver wire.

Other Players to Add from Waivers

Here are a few other players available in a range of league sizes that you should consider adding if they are on your waiver wire.

  • C: Gary Sanchez, Cal Raleigh, James McCann, Yainer Diaz, Freddy Fermin, Patrick Bailey, Luis Campusano, Logan O’Hoppe
  • CI: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Joey Meneses (OF), Brandon Belt, Joey Votto, Jake Burger, Eugenio Suarez, Triston Casas
  • MI: Maikel Garcia (3B), Wilmer Flores (CI), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (3B/OF), Royce Lewis (3B), Elvis Andrus, Ezequiel Tovar, Pablo Reyes, Vaughn Grissom
  • OF: Nolan Jones (1B), TJ Friedl, Kerry Carpenter, Chas McCormick, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Marcell Ozuna, Dairon Blanco, Sal Frelick, James Outman, Riley Greene, David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, Harrison Bader, Stone Garrett, Esteury Ruiz, Kyle Isbel, Michael Conforto, Mike Tauchman
  • SP: Graham Ashcraft, Gavin Williams, Grayson Rodriguez, Kenta Maeda, Cole Ragans, Logan Allen, Mike Clevinger, Dean Kremer, Jose Quintana, Jesse Scholtens, J.P. France, Hyun Jin Ryu, John Means
  • RP: Kyle Finnegan, Adbert Alzolay, Brusdar Graterol, Evan Phillips, Gregory Santos

Prospect Waiver Wire Watch

A number of prospects are worthy of consideration for waiver wire claims due to being called up or potentially being called up. Here are a few to consider adding.

  • SEA SP Emerson Hancock – the next SEA SP to make it; 10 IP, 4 K, 3 BB, 5.40 ERA
  • STL SS Masyn Wynn – could get the call with DeJong’s departure; 17/17/.284 at AAA
  • PIT SS Liover Peguero – 10 R, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 2 SB, .257 AVG; likely in platoon or bench role if Cruz returns
  • OAK 1B Tyler Soderstrom – struggling so far, .171 AVG
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