If your fantasy squads have been underwhelming in the power department thus far, pay attention. This is a great week for you to add some muscle to your lineups as every bat below is a 20-homer player over a full season with some even having the power to crank 30-plus homers. Two of those bats are top-25 prospects too. Yeah, this Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire article is so powerful, it should come with a warning label.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Hitters
Jesse Winker (OF – CIN)
It feels like a trap, but Jesse Winker is trying to bash his way back into our lives. In his last five games, Winker has compiled five home runs, seven RBI, seven runs scored, and three walks with multi-hit performances in every game. Alright, Jesse, we see you there. A quick look at his statcast data lends even more confidence. When it comes to hitting the ball hard, Winker’s sliders are firmly in the red.
This isn’t anything new though. Winker has always hit the ball hard but he’s struggled to hit for average, especially against left-handed pitching. Those splits were on full display in 2019 with a .286/.369/.520 slash line against RHP and a lowly .163/.280/.163 mark against southpaws with zero extra-base hits in 43 at-bats. Through 11 at-bats this season, Winker already has a double, home run, and four hits total against LHP in 11 at-bats. Small sample size alert, but it’s very promising to see Winker getting off to a good start against LHP. If he can continue to be just even adequate against them, that would be huge as Winker has always mashed RHP. This is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now and one that needs to be rostered in mixed leagues.
Dylan Carlson (OF – STL)
Finally! Reports yesterday strongly hinted that the Cardinals were calling up Dylan Carlson this weekend and those turned into more concrete reports last night. Carlson is finally here. The high-upside outfield prospect will make his Major League debut today and is slated to bat 6th and play left field. This isn’t a prospect you bring up to play sporadically.
In his breakout campaign last season that escalated his prospect status to elite levels, Carlson slashed .292/.372/.542 with 28 doubles, 26 home runs, 20 steals, and a .250 ISO across 562 plate appearances. We had seen flashes of this upside from Carlson before, but never for a prolonged period of time. With an above-average hit tool, plus or better raw power, and at least average speed, Carlson’s all-around potential is quite high with a .280/30+/15 level of peak production within the realm of possibility. For 2020, he’s a safer bet than Jo Adell, albeit with slightly less upside, due to a much better plate approach (10.3 BB%, 20.6 K% in 2019). Simply put, Carlson needs to be scooped up where available or bid on aggressively in FAAB leagues.
Alec Bohm (3B – PHI)
Two top-25 hitting prospects getting called up at the same time? Hot damn! As easy way to describe Alec Bohm is to comp him to Dylan Carlson without the speed. Trust me, I’ve seen Bohm live out in the Arizona Fall League and he’s not going to make a dent in the SB category for you. But what he can do is provide handsomely in the other four-categories while producing a higher OBP as well.
As the #3 overall pick in the 2018 class out of Wichita State, Bohm was lauded as one of the most advanced bats in the entire draft class. After making his MLB debut a little over two years later, he’s done nothing to disprove that. Bohm slashed .293/.368/.474 in the minors with 36 doubles and 21 home runs in 695 plate appearances. That advanced approach he displayed in college followed him to the pros as well with a 9.9% walk rate and a 13.8% strikeout rate. For a slugger with Bohm’s power to have a low strikeout rate like this is quite impressive.
While Bohm doesn’t project as a huge masher, his above-average to plus hit tool and power along with that plate approach gives him a higher floor to go along with a .300/30 ceiling. And if you were worried about playing time, don’t be.
Expectation is Alec Bohm will play regularly, Klentak says. Kingery back in a utility role, Segura to get time at second base.
— Meghan Montemurro (@M_Montemurro) August 13, 2020
Nick Solak (2B/3B/OF – TEX)
He’s back! Well, Nick Solak didn’t really go anywhere, but the underrated rookie got off to a cold start and was dropped from many fantasy rosters. It’s time to rectify that. One of the big questions surrounding Solak entering the season was if he would play enough to make a fantasy impact. Those worries have been eased as Solak has been a lineup fixture for the Rangers this month, just not at the same spot on the field on in the batting order.
The beauty of rostering Solak is the versatility and all-around production he brings to the table. Solak doesn’t stand out in any one area offensively but has shown the ability to develop into a .280/20/15 type of player down the road. While that power hasn’t shown up yet this season (first homer last night), Solak has already swiped three bases and has registered an 89th percentile xBA, 93rd percentile K%, and 92nd percentile sprint speed. And even with no dongs yet, Solak’s exit velocity and hard-hit rates are 64th and 65th percentile respectively. Go scoop him up if he’s sitting on your waiver wire.
Jesus Aguilar (1B – MIA)
The last three seasons for Jesus Aguilar have been about as up and down as you can find. Aguilar broke out in a big way in 2018, slashing .274/.352/.539 with 35 home runs and 108 RBI in 149 games with the Brewers. Those who drafted him in 2019 hoping for an encore were remarkably disappointed as the slugging first baseman wasn’t even worth rostering as early as May. But is a resurgence happening in South Beach this season? His statcast data sure is hinting at it, as are his four homers and .311 average.
There’s a lot of pink and red there, isn’t there? On top of that, Aguilar has been hitting 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in every game since Miami returned to action earlier this month. The Marlins are far from a juggernaut, but the favorable lineup spots are a nice boon to his value. If you’re looking for a corner infielder or need a boost in power, Aguilar is a great waiver wire or FAAB target this week.
Anthony Santander (OF – BAL)
Remember when we were all laughing at the hodgepodge lineup Baltimore was running out there? Well, the Orioles are the ones that are laughing now. Through three weeks of play, Baltimore ranks 2nd in AVG, 7th in OBP, 1st in slugging, and 2nd in OPS. Wait, what? That’s 2020 for you. A big reason for that success, at least recently, has been the production of Anthony Santander in the middle of the order. With another hit last night, Santander is now on a 9-game hit streak with five homers and 20 RBI total this season. Those 20 RBI tie him for the league lead with Aaron Judge, J.T. Realmuto, and Charlie Blackmon. Who would’ve thought that would be the case?
Outside of a 54th percentile barrel rate and 48th percentile sprint speed, all of Santander’s statcast sliders are 62nd percentile or above this season. He appears to be locked into the #2 spot in Baltimore’s lineup too which is a plus. While the average will likely never be an asset to your fantasy squad, Santander is showing that he can be a reliable source of HR, R, and RBI at the bottom of your roster. Give him a look while he’s rolling.
Dominic Smith (1B – NYM)
For the last few years, most have said that all Dominic Smith needs is a chance to start regularly. Well, he now has that chance with Yoenis Cespedes opting out, vacating the DH spot for the Mets. Smith has benefitted immensely from Cespedes’ departure starting nearly every game since and now is really starting to heat up with four homers in his last seven games and a dinger in each of his last three. While his exit velocity and hard-hit rates are both middle of the road, Smith has a 93rd percentile barrel rate and has been consistently driving the ball in the air.
That ball was DOM-olished. #LGM pic.twitter.com/C8bM9qGSTJ
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 13, 2020
This type of power display shouldn’t come as much of a shock either as Smith has consistently hit for power throughout his Major League career with 30 home runs in 533 at-bats, even if the playing time hasn’t been as consistent. With his spot in the lineup secure, Smith finally has the chance many have been clamoring for and his power can be an asset moving forward.
Deep League Target: Andres Gimenez (SS – NYM)
If I could guarantee everyday playing time, Andre Gimenez wouldn’t just be listed as a deep league target. With a few injuries hampering the Mets starters, Gimenez received a chance to show what he could do as an everyday player, and the 21-year-old Venezuelan shortstop didn’t disappoint, hitting .283 with six steals and a 95th percentile so far. That speed is exactly why he’s being mentioned here. Gimenez grades as a plus or better runner that produced a combined 56 steals in the last two minor league seasons across 239 games.
Expecting much power from Gimenez will leave you disappointed as the shortstop doesn’t impact the ball much, as shown by his 30th percentile exit velocity, 6th percentile hard-hit rate, and 13th percentile xSLG. But that speed will play and Gimenez should remain close to an everyday player will the versatility to play three infield positions.
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Pitchers
Pablo Lopez (SP – MIA)
A popular waiver wire target early last season turned back into waiver wire fodder just as quickly, Pablo Lopez might just be inching his way back into our hearts. He’s been doing all he can lately to try to buy back into the circle of trust, posting a 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9 through his first three starts with a 90th percentile exit velocity allowed and 93rd percentile hard-hit allowed. Included in that is six innings of two-run ball with eight strikeouts last night against the Braves. Lopez brought his A-game last night, generating a 36% CSW and 21 whiffs in his 88 pitch outing.
I have missed Pablo Lopez's changeup so much pic.twitter.com/k7X0wnlGD6
— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) August 5, 2020
A notable change for Lopez this season has been the increased usage of his changeup which is up 7.8% from last season. His changeup was his best pitch last season with an xwOBA of .288 and that has dropped down to .211 this season. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but this whole damn season is a small sample size. Lopez has allowed two earned runs or less in all three starts and didn’t allow a walk in two of those. It’s time to show him some love again.
Merrill Kelly (SP – ARI)
Another pitcher off to a strong start to the 2020 season is the Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly. Through four starts, Kelly has posted a 1.71 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with a 22/3 K/BB rate. The big strikeout numbers likely won’t be there, but Kelly does a great job at mixing pitches and keeping hitters off-balance. So far this season, Kelly has thrown each of his five pitches between 15.2% and 29.1% of the time with his four-seamer, curve, and sinker all allowing a wOBA of .219 or less. If you need an arm to help stabilize your ratios, I’d give Kelly a look.
Media/Link Credit: Meghan Montemurro, Baseball Savant, PitcherList, Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire, New York Mets.
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