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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Welcome Back Alex

By Eric Cross
CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 21: Minnesota Twins right fielder Alex Kirilloff (19) singles to left to drive in 2 runs during the fourth inning of the Major League Baseball game between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians on May 21, 2021, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

This week’s Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire report might be the most interesting one of the season. We have a beautiful mix of intriguing young players, talented options turning their season around, and even a catcher currently performing at a top-5 level. Whatever your team(s) might need this week, there’s a good chance you’ll be able to find it on the waiver wire.

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire

Alex Kirilloff (OF – MIN)

While looking through the different fantasy baseball platforms, it looks like Alex Kirilloff was dropped in a bunch of leagues when he went on the IL a few weeks ago. It was likely a tough but necessary move for people as we deal with more injuries than ever before leaving many teams without open IL spots. But now that Kirilloff is back in action, he needs to be scooped back up everywhere. Before landing on the IL, Kirilloff was really beginning to impress and his underlying metrics tell the tale perfectly.

Currently, Kirilloff sports a .323 xBA, .815 xSLG, .462 xwOBA, .646 xwOBACON, 61.8 hard-hit rate, and 26.5% barrel rate. Yes, this has come in a 49 plate-appearance sample size, but it just shows how talented Kirilloff is and how much of an impact he can make. This is a top-10 hitting prospect we’re talking about with a plus hit tool and plus raw power. The Twins don’t appear to be contenders this season which means Kirilloff should get plenty of run as an everyday player. Go pick him back up if he’s available in your league.

Kiké Hernández (2B/SS/OF – BOS)

For some reason that I still haven’t figured out, Alex Core has been using Kiké Hernández in the leadoff spot a ton this season. While it’s a puzzling move to use a low-speed, low-OBP guy as your leadoff hitter, it’s certainly a positive for us in the fantasy baseball world. As with Kirilloff above, Hernández was likely dropped in your league when he went on the IL, but now he’s back and has taken back over atop Boston’s potent lineup that currently ranks 2nd in runs per game.

Even without a lofty OBP, leading off in front of stars like Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, and Alex Verdugo is a beautiful place to be. As long as Hernández can maintain an OBP above .300 (currently .307), he should continue to score a ton of runs. At the moment, he’s scored 23 runs in 34 games which is a full-season pace of 110 runs. Add in his 20-homer pop and multipositional eligibility and you have yourself a sneaky-valuable fantasy asset that is likely sitting on your league’s waiver wire right now.

Bobby Dalbec (1B – BOS)

We’re not stopping with just one Boston hitter this week. In fact, we’re not even leaving the right side of Boston’s infield. Bobby Dalbec is beginning to heat up folks. After sitting for two straight games on 5/11 and 5/12, Dalbec has come alive, recording eight hits in 23 at-bats with three home runs, 10 RBI, and six runs scored. All this while primarily hitting 8th or 9th in Boston’s order. But 8th or 9th in Boston’s order is a much better spot than most 8/9’s in baseball and still gives Dalbec plenty of RBI opportunities.

With Dalbec’s free-swinging ways (33.1 K%, 40.5% whiff), the peaks and valleys will always be there, but those peaks can really provide a big power boost to fantasy teams while they last.  If anything, this could just be a pickup to ride out the current hot streak he’s on. But hey, anything helps in this frustrating injury-filled fantasy season.

Brendan Rodgers (2B – COL)

Guess who’s back. Back again. Brendan Rodgers is back. Tell a friend. While some of the shine was worn off from his days as a top-10 prospect, Brendan Rodgers still has the skills to make a fantasy impact with his bat while playing a position where offense is definitely needed. This is more of an upside pickup in 14+ team leagues than anything else as there are no ways for me to slice and dice his metrics to make them look appealing. Rodgers has flat-out stunk at the Major League level.

However, he did slash .298/.354/.504 in the minors and has the upside to put up some .270+/20+ seasons in Coors. It also looks like the Rockies are going to give him some run at 2nd base moving forward. This is a low-risk pickup with the potential for a solid reward. Why not? If it doesn’t work out, you cut him for another free agent in the coming weeks.

William Contreras (C – ATL)

Welcome to 2021, a year where the top drafted fantasy catchers aren’t doing much and the top-3 in wOBA are Carson Kelly, Buster Posey, and Omar Narvaez. Just as we all drew it up, right? And do you know who is 4th on that list? A backstop with the last name Contreras. No, not Willson, his little brother William. Through his first 55 plate appearances, Contreras has an impressive .255/.364/.574 slash line with four home runs, 13 RBI, and 10 runs scored. Beyond that, Contreras has a 22.6% barrel rate, 51.6% hard-hit rate, 93 mph average exit velocity, and his .319 ISO trails only Mike Zunino among catchers with 50+ plate appearances. If you need a boost at catcher, give Contreras a look. And who doesn’t need a boost at catcher?

Odubel Herrera (OF – PHI)

While his off-the-field issues are well-known and disappointing, Odubel Herrera is performing in a way on the field lately that has him back on the fantasy radar. Before going 0/2 last night, Herrera was on a nine-game hitting streak with four multi-hit games, one home run, and two steals. The Phillies have been searching far and wide for a consistent starting center fielder between Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen and they might’ve finally found that with a familiar face. On the season, Herrera has two home runs and two steals in 85 plate appearances with a 74th percentile sprint speed, career-best 40.7% hard-hit rate, and an improved plate approach over previous seasons. He might have dual eligibility as well depending on your league settings and what platform you use.

Spencer Turnbull (SP – DET)

In the year where everyone is tossing no-hitters, Spencer Turnbull got into the action last week with his domination of the Seattle Mariners. But he’s not included here just because he tossed a no-no. No, Turnbull has been pitching very well this season overall. Through six starts, Turnbull has posted a 2.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 5.7% walk rate, and 22% strikeout rate in 34.0 innings.

Turnbull has been throwing more breaking pitches this season (8.9% increase from 2020) and the results have been positive. Both his curveball and slider have a whiff rate near 40%, a BAA under .200, and a wOBA under .250. On top of that, Turnbull’s four-seamer continues to be a solid pitch for him with a BAA under .200 and putaway rate above 20% for the second consecutive season. Turnbull’s next four starts line up to be against Cleveland at home on Monday, followed by the Yankees (road), White Sox (road), and Seattle (home).

Spencer Howard (SP – PHI)

Spencer Howard will start today against the Boston Red Sox. While this matchup isn’t the greatest, it’s just promising to see Philadelphia put him back in the rotation where he belongs after using him solely in relief earlier in the season. The Phillies sent him to Triple-A a few weeks ago to build up his arm to start and Howard looked very good, allowing only one run in nine innings with a 38.3% strikeout rate. He features three above-average to plus pitches in his mid-90’s fastball, slider, and changeup (also mixes in a curveball) that can all miss bats and his stellar 33.0% strikeout rate in the minors is evidence of that. While the innings might not be there, Howard has the talent to be a top-50 pitcher ROS.

Alek Manoah (SP – TOR)

You’ll be hard-pressed to find a pitching prospect performing better than Alek Manoah right now. Through his first three Triple-A starts, the big right-hander has posted a 0.50 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 4.5% walk rate, and 40.9% strikeout rate. While he only has 35 professional innings under his belt total after being drafted 11th overall in the 2019 draft out of West Virginia, Manoah is an advanced arm with the arsenal to make an impact right away.

Manoah sits mostly in the mid-90’s with his fastball, touching 97-98 with solid armside life, and offsets that with a solid changeup and borderline double-plus slider. Seriously, this slider is downright nasty and unfair for opposing hitters. Just check out the clip below. I’m sure Jeter Downs wll agree with you. With his MLB debut looming, the time is now to add Alek Manoah in redraft leagues.

James Kaprielian (SP – OAK)

A rash of injuries limited James Kaprielian to only 102 innings pitched in the minors, including missing all of 2017 and 2018. But he’s making up for lost time now, looking highly impressive through his first two starts of 2021. In a combined 10.2 innings, Kaprielian has a 2.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a gaudy 33.3% strikeout rate. He’s been generating whiffs with all five of his pitches so far, with all five over 25% and four over 35%. This likely won’t last to this degree, but Kaprielian is certainly worth a look with how he’s pitching right now along with a favorable upcoming schedule that might give him two starts against Seattle who has already been no-hit twice this season.

Casey Mize (SP – DET)

Don’t look now, but Casey Mize is turning things around. Actually, look all you want, because he’s pitching his way back onto fantasy teams over the last few weeks. After back-to-back rough outings against Oakland on 4/17 and Houston on 4/23, Mize has tossed four straight quality starts, lowering his season ERA and WHIP to 3.69 and 1.19 respectively. In fact, those were really his only two bad starts so far in 2021 in which he served up five of his six total home runs allowed. In Mize’s other six starts, he’s recorded a 1.96 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

Now, with all that said, the strikeout rate hasn’t been there this season. Mize never projected as a big source of strikeouts, but his K rate this season has been well below league average at 17.8% which simply isn’t all that useful for fantasy purposes. That has risen to 20% over his last four starts and 22% over his last two, however. There’s room for more improvement in the K department as well as Mize’s usual filthy splitter hasn’t been generating nearly as many whiffs in 2021. You got to imagine that rate ticks back up here moving forward. If he can just keep the strikeout rate in the 20-24% range while posting low ratios, Mize absolutely can carve out solid fantasy value moving forward.

Media Credit: MLB Pipeline, Baseball Savant, Rob Friedman (Pitching Ninja), Geoff Pontes, Bally Sports: Braves, Boston Red Sox, Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire

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