We would all love to win our league on Draft Day, but that’s simply not possible. The fantasy baseball waiver wire is a necessary tool for fortifying your roster. How much FAAB should you be willing to spend on some of the hot adds? Here’s a look at some of the players, generally owned in 50% or less of leagues, who may be worth considering.
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Fantasy Baseball FAAB Recommendations
Emmett Sheehan – Los Angeles Dodgers
Welcome to the show Mr. Sheehan. One of the top pitching prospects in baseball is joining the fray, and the race to the waiver wire is upon us. The big question, though, is how long will he stay? Answering that is the key to deciding how much of your FAAB budget to blow on him.
The team has a slew of starters on the IL. Julio Urias and Noah Syndergaard likely won’t be out long, however. Their returns could kick Sheehan back to Triple-A, though Syndergaard’s struggles could open the door. If Sheehan can deliver on the promise, it’s highly likely that he gets an extended look.
Of course, we then get to the potential innings limit issue. In 2022 Sheehan threw a total of 68.0 innings. Already in 2023, he’s thrown 53.1 innings. Generally, we’d anticipate about 100 innings or so to be his maximum, though the Dodgers could push past that by some. It is possible they push it to 120 innings, which leaves him with about 65 innings to work with. If he averaged 5.0 innings a start, that’s 13 starts. If he gets to 6.0 innings? We are talking 10.
In redraft formats that alone is going to limit the FAAB bid. It’s easy to go all in on the hot name, but we have to realize the cap on his value. Bidding 40% of your FAAB will keep you from the newly installed closer you may need in September.
Sheehan could be great, but there’s risk and a limit to his value in 2023. Keep that in mind before simply going all in with your bid. He’s worth the risk, but temper those bids a bit.
FAAB – 10-15% (In keeper leagues, this number increases. In shallower leagues, the number decreases down to 5% or less)
Infielders – Additional Waiver Wire/FAAB Options:
- Edouard Julien – Minnesota Twins (FAAB – 10-12.5%) – Julien has been producing since returning to the Majors, including hits in his first four games (6-13 with 4 R). He continues to prove to be a great OBP asset (.435 at Triple-A, .356 in the Majors). He also adds some power and speed. The question is if he can get his 12.6% SwStr% under control. Strikeouts weren’t a significant concern in the minors. The key will be adjusting to offspeed pitches (22.73% Whiff%). That should come in time. If he’s available, he’s a must-add.
- Bo Naylor – Cleveland Guardians (FAAB – 5-7.5%) – This is a proactive move, but one that makes sense. Mike Zunino is hitting .177 with 3 HR, so you would think it’s only a matter of time. Naylor has 13 HR in 270 PA at Triple-A while showing a tremendous approach. His 19.3% strikeout rate and 18.1% walk rate are impressive. Those are backed up by his 8.9% SwStr% at Triple-A. Power and a good approach? That’s a home run, and when he returns to the Majors he’ll be a must-own in all formats. Getting him now should save you a few FAAB dollars. [Editor’s Note: Mike Zunino has now been designated for assignment]
- Nick Pratto – Kansas City Royals (FAAB – 2-3%) – With Vinny Pasquantino on the IL, Pratto is getting his chance to shine. He’s hit .278 with 4 HR over 174 PA. He’s benefitted from a .418 BABIP, though his 11.8% SwStr% and 23.4% O-Swing% indicate he’s better than his current 33.3% strikeout rate. With ample pop, which he’s shown at Triple-A, there’s reason for optimism (his spot atop the batting order last night only helps). The cost won’t be high, given his past struggles, but the upside is there.
Outfielders – Additional Waiver Wire/FAAB Options:
- Dairon Blanco – Kansas City Royals (FAAB – 1%) – He’s started four straight games, and while he hasn’t stood out yet there’s reason to believe he might. After stealing 45 bases at Triple-A last season, he had 47 SB in 208 PA this season. While he’s not a huge power hitter, he did add 14 HR last season. Speed is the name of his game, so he needs to improve his contact rate (19.6% SwStr% over his first three games). All he needs to do is get on base to be a difference-maker.
- Luis Matos – San Francisco Giants (FAAB – 5-7.5%) – Has he refined his approach? That was the question entering 2023, and in the minors, it would appear so. His SwStr% was 6.0% in both Double and Triple-A, creating significant hope. There’s some power developing, as well as some speed. There could be some bumps initially, as there often are for young players. He’s not an elite prospect, but he’s a solid one (among the Giants’ Top 5). While the risk makes you shy away from breaking the back, the upside puts him on radars.
- Michael Taylor – Minnesota Twins (FAAB – $0) – We’ve all fallen for the tease of a Michael Taylor breakout, right? Now 32 years old, it’s a little bit easier to disregard. Still. he has 10 HR and 11 SB, so you can’t completely ignore it. That said, his 23.3% HR/FB would be a career-high and he continues to struggle to make contact (15.8%). He’s the epitome of a ride-them-while-they-are-hot waiver claim.
Pitchers – Additional Waiver Wire/FAAB Options:
- Griffin Canning – Los Angeles Angels (FAAB – 1-2%) – While his ERA is 4.56, Canning has shown better control (2.53 BB/9) and more groundball stuff (44.2%) than at any point in his MLB career. He’s continued to struggle with home runs (1.69 HR/9), but you’d expect an improvement there. He’s throwing his fastball less than before (32.6%), and it appears to be benefitting him. He’s pitched to a 3.27 ERA in his first two June starts. While he’s still a gamble, it’s worth grabbing him to see if he’s finally figured it out.
- Kyle Hendricks – Chicago Cubs (FAAB – $0) – The name is familiar, but the value is capped. Don’t be deceived by the 3.09 ERA. The strikeouts aren’t there (5.79 K/9). The groundballs aren’t there (36.6% groundball rate). He’s benefitted from a lot of luck (.254 BABIP). The implosion is coming, so don’t waste your FAAB.
- Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers (FAAB – 10-20%) – Working his way back from elbow issues, Skubal’s absence has caused him to fall off the map. The big question is going to be whether or not his control is there immediately because if it is we are looking at a high-upside add who shouldn’t face much of an innings limit. There’s risk early on, but once he finds his groove he’ll be a must-own. Grab him now, before it’s too late.
Sources – Fangraphs, CBS Sports, Brooks Baseball, MLB.com