As we get into the month of May, we are slowly learning that this season may be a little trickier than in years past. Due to the deadened ball, even more so than last year, a lot of hitters are off to a slow start. Is that due to the ball, the weather, or just the player off to a poor start? It’s hard to really know until we get some more data. So, for now, we are going to try and buy some hitters with longer track records. They have good floors with solid batted ball data and players we know will play every day.
On the flip side, we are looking to trade away players with inflated BABIPs. Players that may appear that they are breaking out but after looking into the underlying metrics, we don’t see anything differently. You have to be proactive in moving these types of players while they are “hot” before they start to cool down and the sell-high window closes shut.
Week 4 Buy or Sell
Buy
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Due to a collision that happened later in the 2021 season, Max Muncy was a huge question mark going into this year. No one doubted the skills and fantasy value that he held. The issue was that, because of the lockout, no one knew if he was healthy after stating in an interview that he had torn his UCL and it was “healthy slowly”.
Fast forward to after the lockout was over and Muncy is all of a sudden swinging and bat, seemingly fine. The best part about having Statcast and all of these tools at our disposal is that it’s really easy to tell if a player is injured. Generally, their exit velocity will be down, they will be swinging and missing more often, or they will be significantly slower in their sprint speed– though that doesn’t affect Muncy given he had an elbow injury.
We’ll start off by looking at the barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. Honestly, it’s basically no different than in years past. Both are down less than ten percentage points and that could just be due to a slow start and being late to off-season training. No glaring difference in skill here.
Muncy’s swinging strike rate is actually down a percent on the season. Trending in the right direction for three consecutive seasons now. While still carrying one of the better chase rates in all of Major League Baseball. Not only that, he is both pulling the ball and hitting it in the air as often as he always does. Not that is an exact science but, it appears to me that Muncy is fully healthy.
Muncy looks to be just a few more reps away from fully breaking out. Given that he is currently sporting a .130 batting average, it may not be too hard to buy low on the All-Star second baseman. One that is much more appealing in on-base percentage leagues.
Avisail Garcia, Miami Marlins
This one is not quite as obvious as Muncy. Avisail Garcia doesn’t have the track record of an All-Star or may not be much of a bounce-back candidate after his “rough” first month of 2022. Generally, the best practice when looking at these players is to concentrate on the power and contact metrics. Something we always do when going over each player in these weekly articles.
It’s so important because someone like Garcia looks horrible on the surface. One home run, four runs scored, four RBI, two stolen bases and a .194 batting average. But, when you look at some numbers that really matter, he looks a lot more like someone who can contribute to your fantasy team in the near future.
To start, the power metrics look legit. He currently has a 13-percent barrel rate, 47.8-percent hard-hit rate, and a ridiculous 116.8 max exit velocity, a skill that Garcia has always had. So, even though he downgraded parks this off-season, going from Milwaukee to Miami. Because he hits the ball so hard, it really shouldn’t affect his power too much due to how far he hits the ball, when he connects.
The only concerning thing in Garcia’s profile is that his swinging strike rate is up quite a bit. It’s always been an issue for him but because he is league average at making contact in the zone, it generally doesn’t result in strikeouts, never striking out more than 23-percent of the time each of the last three seasons. So, even though he is currently striking out 31-percent of the time. Given that he is hitting the ball as hard as ever. You wouldn’t think he all of a sudden has a slower bat, causing all swings and misses. Sometimes hitters just need more than a month to get into a rhythm.
You shouldn’t have to give up much at all to trade for someone like Garcia. If you are in a 10-team league, this may not apply to you as he could be someone that rides the bench for you in a shallower format. But, for 12-team leagues and deeper, Garcia is a great buy-low target as he should contribute counting stats from playing every day. As well as a potential power, and speed threat to round out your outfield.
Sell
Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royals
Andrew Benintendi is the perfect type of player to sell high on early in the season. Most fantasy players, that aren’t as experienced, weigh batting average way too heavily. When they see that someone has a high batting average, they just assume that they’re playing well. Though Benintendi certainly hasn’t been bad, he has been far from as good as the surface stats tell us.
The Royals outfielder is currently boasting a .410 BABIP, carrying his uncharacteristically high .366 batting average. Going along with one home run and zero stolen bases. In fact, Benintendi hasn’t even attempted a stolen base yet this season.
One thing that is generally sticky early on in the season is how frequently a player attempts stolen bases. Seeing that Benintendi hasn’t even attempted one yet is a huge red flag. Especially on a team like the Royals that love to run. Considering how many times he has been on first base so far this year, it’s hard to bank on more than five steals from him if he hasn’t even attempted one yet.
As for the power metrics, they are not looking so good. Benintendi’s fly ball rate is down ten percent while his ground ball rate is through the roof. Jumping from 38.5-percent last season to 54.8-percent last season. His barrel rate has been cut in half and his hard-hit rate is nearly cut in half.
The main reason all of those metrics are down is more concerning than usual. Benintendi plays in an enormous pitcher’s park. If he only hit 17 home runs last season, without a deadened ball, with decent power metrics. We can’t imagine how low the floor is if he is going to have diminished power metrics in that park with an even more pitcher-friendly ball. We could be looking at a potential 12 home run five stolen base player with mediocre counting stats, with the potential of being even worse if the ball never changes all year.
Sell Benintendi for anyone you believe to be a top-50 or so outfielder that may be struggling out of the gate. In 10 or 12-team formats, he may even be a drop soon once the inflated BABIP comes crashing back down to Earth. Trade him now while you have the chance.
Eric Hosmer, San Diego Padres
Similar to Benintendi, the BABIP is just off the charts. Even though he is hitting for more power, Eric Hosmer is just at an unsustainable pace right now. Sure, he has had some nice fantasy-relevant seasons in the past, but nothing close to this. In the shortened 2020 season he did something similar, going on a hot streak where he hit a lot of home runs and doubles. Though that quickly ended the second the 2021 season started.
Looking under the hood, Hosmer is hardly doing anything differently to deserve this hot start. He has been as frustrating as they come over the years, always doing everything right except for hitting the ball in the air. Hosmer has always had great batted ball data with well-above-average strikeout rates but was never able to hit the ball in the air enough to make a fantasy impact in the power department.
Well, now that ground ball rate is heading in the completely wrong direction. It was already high to begin with, and now his fly balls are down seven-percent and the ground balls are up four percent. On top of that, Hosmer’s barrel rate and hard hit rate are nearly identical to last season. And considering that he is a 32-year-old with over 6,000 plate appearances over the course of his big league career it’s very likely he hasn’t made a significant change, which by all appearances he has not.
There really is no way to think he is going to magically break out. The only thing in his favor is that the humidor in San Diego could potentially help his power. But, it is irrelevant if he is just going to pound everything into the ground like he always does.
Try trading the Padres first baseman away for someone like Joey Votto or Yasmani Grandal. A power bat that hasn’t gotten off to the start that you would have liked but is no doubt the better hitter and fantasy player.