I like to reflect on the season at a couple of points each year, and we have reached one such point with the pending All-Star break.
Heading into the All-Star break:
- We have seven pitchers with at least 20 saves.
- We have 26 pitchers with at least 10 saves.
- We have 37 pitchers with at least five saves.
- We have 152 pitchers with at least one save.
- We have 246 pitchers with at least one save opportunity.
- We have six pitchers with at least 20 holds already.
I researched where we are at this point in the season compared to the same point in 2023. See below.
| Year | 20 Saves | 10 saves | Five Saves | One Save | One Save Opportunity |
| 2024 | 7 | 26 | 37 | 152 | 246 |
| 2023 | 8 | 26 | 42 | 152 | 250 |
The similarities are striking. Do we have enough data to call this a trend yet?
Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report
AL East
Boston general manager Craig Breslow suggested this week that the Red Sox needed to “pick a lane” soon and determine if they are in the playoff race or not. If they decide to be sellers, look for them to move closer Kenley Jansen, who has 18 saves and a 2.01 ERA on the season.
New York: Clay Holmes appears to be working through his issues, earning saves on Wednesday and Friday night. One wonders if the Yankees front office might look for some bullpen upgrades before the pending trade deadline. Holmes now has 21 saves on the season with a 2.82 ERA And 24.5K%.
Chad Green earned two saves and a win this week for the Toronto Blue Jays, who remain without closer Jordan Romano and top setup man Yimi Garcia. Green took the loss on Friday night, dropping the Blue Jays to 43-51, last in the competitive AL East. The best guess here is that the Blue Jays see the writing on the wall and sell off any rental pieces, of which Green and Garcia (if healthy) would be. Should that be the case, could it be time for Nate Pearson?
AL Central
Emmanuel Clase earned three more saves this week, pushing his AL-leading total to 28. Clase just continues to amaze and is well on his way to surpassing his career-high last year of 44 saves. He has four wins, a 0.83 ERA and a .67 WHIP. Want to nitpick? He has only 39 strikeouts in 43.1 innings, but complaining about it feels ungrateful.
Detroit: could we see a shakeup at the top? Jason Foley has struggled of late, blowing a save and taking a loss on Friday night. Veteran Andrew Chafin could take over for a spell, as he has experience with 20 career saves, but he is also a candidate to be traded with the impending deadline. Stay tuned.
Jhoan Duran nabbed two wins and a save this week for the Minnesota Twins. Duran now has 14 saves, and top setup man Griffin Jax has seven saves and 14 holds with a 34.8K%.
AL West
Josh Hader pushed his season total to 18 saves with three more this week and seems to have put his struggles behind him. The whopping 40.4K% stands out even if the 3.86 ERA feels high for a closer. A closer look reveals that his xERA is 2.85 and xFIP is 2.26. I think he’s fine.
Los Angeles: I am looking for a shakeup here with Carlos Estevez almost a certainty to be traded in the next couple of weeks. Veterans Luis Garcia and Matt Moore could also be on the move. Ben Joyce, who threw a fastball at 104.5 MPH on Friday night and former top prospect Hans Crouse have been outstanding for the Angels the last couple of weeks. Joyce would be the one I would stash on the roster in anticipation of changes at the deadline.
In Texas, Kirby Yates jumped back into the save column with two more this week, giving him 14 on the season.
NL East
Edwin Diaz is fully back in the ninth-inning role, landing two saves this week. Reed Garrett has gone to the IL with elbow discomfort. Dedniel Nunez has joined the high-leverage corps with Adam Ottavino. The Mets also acquired Phil Maton this week from the Tampa Bay Rays, who should slot into a middle relief role here.
Philadelphia: we will continue to call this a committee between nasty lefty Jose Alvarado and righty Jeff Hoffman. Alvarado currently leads the team with 13 saves, but Hoffman has closed the gap, earning the Phillies’ only save this week, giving him nine on the season.
The Washington Nationals let MLB know they are open for business before the trade deadline. Kyle Finnegan should be on the move. I speculate that Finnegan will go to a contender and become a high-leverage reliever and not be the closer in his next destination. Hunter Harvey and Dylan Floro could also be moved, which might leave a closing opportunity for…I don’t know. If Harvey stays, it would likely be his job first. Floro also has some experience in the role.
NL Central
Porter Hodge continues to move up in Chicago. The Cubs brass has to decide which lane they are in: seller or buyer? If they decide to sell, look for current closer Hector Neris to be moved, perhaps even Mark Leiter Jr., and for the closer job to be up for grabs. It could look like a committee to begin with after the deadline. Or, they could add more arms to the back of the bullpen if they feel they can take a shot at a Wild Card. Neris did earn two saves this week while Hodge and Luke Little earned two holds each. Jorge Lopez was also recently signed and has closing experience with 29 career saves.
The back end of the bullpen is about to become interesting in Milwaukee, where closer extraordinaire Devin Williams nears a return to action. Trevor Megill has been nothing short of spectacular as the closer, with 18 saves, three holds, a 1.53 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 29.9K%. Wiliams is slated for a return shortly after the All-Star break and was just sent out on rehab assignment to High-A Wisconsin this morning. Williams will likely take the role back over when he is healthy and ready, and the first-place Brewers will welcome him back and add another devastating weapon to the back end of their bullpen.
Aroldis Chapman was holding down the fort in Pittsburgh, while the team waited for the return of closer David Bednar. Bednar returned on Friday night and earned a save against the horrendous Chicago White Sox, pushing his total to 17 saves. The anticipation is that the Pirates will be sellers at the trade deadline, which makes Chapman a prime candidate to be moved in the next couple of weeks, yet they are only 2.5 games back in the Wild Card standings. They seem primed to hold on to local native Bednar. Will they stand pat or concede? Time will tell.
NL West
Arizona: Paul Sewald has struggled over the last two weeks, with three consecutive blown saves. He seems to have righted the ship this week with two saves in a row on Wednesday and Thursday.
In Los Angeles, Evan Phillips should get the bulk of the saves, but it was veteran Daniel Hudson earning his fourth on Friday night. Interestingly, Phillips was called on to pitch the sixth inning Friday night, with the Dodgers losing at the time. It was Phillips’ first outing since last weekend. Something to watch?
Potential Trade Candidates, and Those Who Could Step Into A Closer Role
I made a chart for reference below. A few caveats: anyone listed here could be traded, and I do not determine the role they may be in next. In this trade market, it is believed that many relief pitchers will be available to contending teams; hence, even the guys listed here as the next man up could easily be moved as well. So this chart is simply speculation on my part.
| Trade Candidate | Next Role | Next Man Up? |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | High-leverage | Hunter Harvey |
| Mason Miller | Closer | Lucas Ecerg |
| Pete Fairbanks | Closer | Jason Adam/Garrett Cleavinger |
| Chad Green | Setup man | Nate Pearson |
| Michael Kopech | Multiple inning reliever | Tanner Banks/Jordan Leasure |
| Aroldis Chapman | High-leverage | David Bednar |
| Carlos Estevez | High-leverage | Ben Joyce/Hans Crouse |
| Tanner Scott | Closer or high-leverage | A.J.Puk |
| Paul Sewald | Closer | Kevin Ginkel |