It’s time to look at this year’s early fantasy basketball draft trends. I’m six drafts into the forthcoming season and it’s already clear that fantasy managers have a wild ride in-store. With an abundance of player movement this offseason, keep a watch out for these risers and fallers in your upcoming fantasy basketball draft.
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Fantasy Basketball Draft Trends
Early ADP Risers
Bradley Beal
Bradley Beal’s recent fantasy campaign was the best of his basketball career. The injury to John Wall left plenty of minutes and usage to be absorbed in Washington and Beal didn’t disappoint. Ranked second overall after the All-Star break, and with reports emerging that Wall will not play in the forthcoming season, the table is set for Beal to have another monster season. Drafted in the mid-20’s in recent seasons, don’t expect Beal to fall outside of the top 10 in your fantasy draft.
Nikola Vucevic
Nikola Vucevic was a key beneficiary of the coaching change in Orlando last season. Clifford’s offensive scheme was heavily reliant on Vucevic who thrived as the focus. Drafted in the 50’s last season, Vucevic made fantasy managers very happy finishing 15th overall. Looking to next season, don’t expect Vucevic to fall. Having recently signed a multi-year deal with Orlando, Vucevic’s role looks to pick up where it left off. With this in mind, if you want to attain his services in your forthcoming draft, you’ll likely need to take him with your second pick.
Pascal Siakim
The NBA’s recently minted Most Improved Player, Pascal Siakim took the league by surprise last season with a breakout year. Establishing himself as a future super-star, Siakim stepped up mightily and became a key factor on the Championship-bound Toronto team. With Kawhi off to the Clippers, Siakim will be receiving as much of the ball as he can handle and could easily improve on last season’s totals. Undrafted in most leagues last year, Siakim is bound to be drafted inside the top 30 of your upcoming fantasy draft.
Bam Adebayo
Many believed that Bam Adebayo was poised to break out last season, however, Hassan Whiteside prevented him from seeing the floor as much as fantasy managers hoped. With Whiteside shipped off to the Trailblazers, Adebayo’s runway appears clear. Largely undrafted last year, expect Adebayo to be snapped up inside the top 70 or even earlier in competitive leagues.
Kelly Oubre
Unimpressive in his time in Washington, Oubre showed flashes but not enough to keep him with the Wizards. Traded to the Suns for Trevor Ariza in a baffling mid-season transaction, Oubre took to his new home like a fish in water and cranked out top-50 numbers down the stretch last season. The late run of form was not enough to significantly impact Oubre’s end-of-season rank. While you might still be able to draft him outside of the top 100, in competitive leagues expect Oubre to be a top 80 choice.
Terry Rozier
A massive overpayment this offseason saw Terry Rozier sent to Charlotte in a sign-and-trade for Kemba Walker. The move is highly beneficial for Rozier who will transition from the third-string PG on a strong Celtics team to the starting PG on a weak Hornets team. Unfortunately, this change has not slid under the fantasy radar and Rozier has shot up draft boards. While you can expect Rozier to see minutes in the 30’s next season, don’t expect his efficiency to improve. Target Rozier in the 60-80 range if you want to see him on your roster next season.
Early ADP Fallers
Ben Simmons
Ben Simmons’ remarkable rookie season turned him into a much-hyped prospect in fantasy drafts last year. With many expecting him to add a three-point shot to his game and improve his FT%, Simmons enjoyed an average draft position of 14 last season. While Simmons did turn in an admirable campaign, the additional facets to his game never appeared, leaving many much cooler on Simmons than they were last year. As such, Simmons is likely to fall to the mid-20’s in your fantasy draft, and could be a league-winner for managers if the improvements expected last season materialize.
Chris Paul
One of the most gifted point guards of a generation, Chris Paul has been drafted in the preliminary rounds of fantasy drafts for years. Marred by injury for the last two seasons, fantasy managers have cooled on Paul and it’s likely that he falls into the 30’s or even 40’s of your upcoming draft. While this may be the right spot to take Paul given his injury concerns, it must be noted that Paul is now the starting point guard on an Oklahoma team with a thin roster. Additionally, Paul will no longer be required to play second fiddle to James Harden and will be a mentor to a developing Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, a young prospect that does not need the ball in his hand to be effective. If you think Paul can stay healthy, draft him with your third choice and then sit back and watch him deliver you a top-20 season.
Kevin Love
Kevin Love has also been a top pick in drafts since emerging as a fantasy force in Minnesota. Love, a top producer even when sharing the floor with LeBron, was expected to step his production back up last year but failed to deliver because of injury. The missed time has spooked fantasy managers and to date, I haven’t seen Love drafted inside the top 50 in a single league. Despite the negative sentiment toward him, Love retains the ability to put together a top-20 season in Cleveland this year. Whether he can stay healthy enough to do so remains to be seen.
Marc Gasol
With an abundance of young bigs available in this year’s draft, fantasy stalwarts like Marc Gasol are going undrafted until later rounds, opening up opportunity for fantasy managers. Gasol had a fractured season last year, moving from Memphis to Toronto just prior to the trade deadline. Taking his time to fit into the Toronto system, Gasol’s fantasy stock began to plummet after the move. Seemingly unnoticed however, Gasol was able to find his feet and put on stretches that displayed his former prowess in the playoffs. Now high on Championship victory, with an outside sniff of another one, and with the departure of Kawhi Leonard, this former Defensive Player of the Year is a good chance to improve on last season’s performance. Assume Gasol will slide in your upcoming draft but expect him to retain top-40 value.
Gary Harris
Disappointing is hardly adequate to describe Gary Harris’ last fantasy campaign. With high hopes for the young Nugget, many including myself targeted Gary in the 50-60 range last season. In an all-too-familiar story, however, an injury-plagued year led to much-reduced production and an end-of-season fantasy rank outside the top 100. Looking to next season, and a Denver team that looks similar to last year, Gary figures to have a consistent role and is poised to receive minutes in the low 30’s. Significantly, Harris showed glimpses of his former self in the series against Portland, reinforcing the notion that he simply wasn’t right physically last season. With a full off-season under his belt, Harris now has the opportunity to find the value expected of him last season. It’s likely Harris is still available for selection in the 90-110 range of your draft.
Jarret Allen
Allen was another over-hyped prospect in the lead-up to last year’s draft. With a block rate to die for, many predicted Allen would have a top 30 season. Allen failed to deliver however and finished the season ranked 97th overall. Allen will fall-down draft boards this year because of this disappointing result, opening-up value for fantasy managers who continue to believe in him despite the presence of DeAndre Jordan in Brooklyn. With doubts about his minutes and a disappointing last season, expect Allen to be drafted in the 85-95 range in your upcoming draft.
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