The in-season tournament is over and there are Christmas Day games in our near future. This week we’ll be looking back on this year’s fantasy basketball drafts, and evaluating trades before the new year, among some other topics. These questions are some of my favorites from the entire season thus far. Honestly, this NBA season has been a bit weird. Between varying amounts of questionable behavior and the appropriate punishment for players, and then toss in injuries galore, fantasy managers are being challenged daily. Welcome to the middle of December!
Fantasy Basketball Mailbag: Let It Snow-ball
Over the last few weeks, we’ve discussed the ramifications and benefits of the in-season tournament. Let us focus on the past and the future at the same time!
With the 65-game requirement for awards, will this have/has this had a greater emphasis on the first few rounds of fantasy drafts? Are players who are in contention for a postseason reward going to play more games and vastly outperform everyone else? – Tyler
This is going to be hard to quantify because finding out the total games played by players in the top four rounds over the last two years to this year would be an endeavor I am not entirely suited for. I will do my best to answer.
There is reason to believe that players will play more games without resting like they have in the recent past. Awards generally play a role in monetary gain for NBA players. It can be used as leverage from agents, though less so. Essentially, yes. The 65-game minimum requirement for awards should give some results.
The only players I can think of where this would be a big deal are players like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Joel Embiid, among others. Kawhi has played the max amount of games. Paul George has played the max amount of games. Joel Embiid will make the quota based on his games played to games missed. This is huge for most fantasy owners who have been apprehensive about drafting DNP-Rest risk players. Will this hold throughout the season is the real question.
How lopsided are fantasy trades? Can you find value in doing a trade in a single-season league or does that only come from dynasty? – Ryan
There can often be the “fleece” in most basketball fantasy leagues. Newer players pay the “two-for-one” tax which is often a wolf in sheep’s clothing. The illusion of giving up a premium player to fill out the roster. Often those trades can be better suited by scouring the waiver wire and getting lucky at the right time. It may never come.
Drafting is the most important part of single-season fantasy. Now, there are sometimes where this works out for teams. If a team is offering a younger player in this deal, someone who may be underperforming, it may be worth taking a gamble on it for an older vet. For example, let’s take Keegan Murray. His efficiency numbers are down across the board. His ability as a shooter is way better than the numbers, given his college stats and last year’s numbers. Fortunately, his overall scoring is up, which is a good indicator of a turnaround. You can find value this way, but it has to be very specific.
Dynasty is a different animal, but a similar beast. Finding value in a trade can come from restructuring with the right fits in a one-for-one or two-for-two, or with prospects and picks for players. It is much simpler in dynasty than in single-season for that exact reason.
Should I make this single-season points league trade? Karl-Anthony Towns for Kyle Kuzma. – Gunnar
Probably not the best trade that has been asked. Although Kuzma has been an exceptionally bright spot for the Washington Wizards, KAT has both better counting numbers and efficiency points in a good positional area like Center.
Breaking it down. Karl-Anthony Towns is 21.6 PPG/9.1 RPG/3.0 APG/1.6 Stocks (steals + blocks) on 50.7 FG%/42.6 3P%/89.8 FT%. Although he is not averaging the 24+ points per game he was before the Gobert trade, he has started to become the threat they were hoping for at the 4. This season may continue to pay dividends in that respect. Kuzma, on the other hand, is at 23 PPG/6.0 RPG/4.4 APG on 47.7 FG%/36.6 3P%/79.2 FT% without a full stock per game. If you had a point per counting stat, KAT would be at 35.7, and Kyle Kuzma would be at 33.4.
Being able to have that flexibility and value far outweighs the assist numbers Kuzma is achieving to boost his fantasy viability. If you can get an underperformer as part of a sweetener to replace a bench piece or fill out the backend of the roster, that would go very well.
Should I make this single-season category league trade? Devin Vassell and Keegan Murray for Zach LaVine. – Chad
Well, that depends on who you are and which one you are getting. I think this trade is more fair than the Kuzma/KAT trade. As mentioned before, Keegan Murray has a chance at being better this season efficiency-wise. That would drastically improve his counting stats, and make this trade more balanced given Zach LaVine hits his average shooting percentages as well. I like this trade, more than other two-for-ones. It would be a huge gamble, but would pay dividends.
If this were a dynasty league, I doubt that trade would even be offered unless the person with Vassell was top three in the league. Having young, healthy assets is far more valuable than a down-year LaVine.
If you have any more trade questions, let me know. I will address them on a weekly basis going into the deadlines.