At the risk of sounding like a total dork, as I’m writing I’m getting giddier by the article. Tomorrow night marks the start of the 2020 season. Mmm, let that sink in for a minute. “The start of football.” It’s got a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? As with every week of the season, if you want to outsmart your opponents, you need to be aware of weekly sleepers and streamers. We’re looking for the gems in the rough that will push your team over the top. As always, Fantrax is your one-stop-shop for all things fantasy football. So, take a walk with me down the avenue of Week 1 sleepers and streamers.
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Fantasy Football Week 1 Sleepers And Streamers
Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers (My Ranking: QB12)
If you’ve watched tape of Philip Rivers’ 2019 season, you’d be rightfully puzzled seeing his name here. The truth of the matter is that this is more about the Jaguars’ defense than the talent of Rivers. I don’t buy the argument that Rivers is washed up, but he’s not going to put out his perennial (prior to last season) low-end QB1 seasons. Still, it’s hard not to be tempted by any quarterback squaring up against Jacksonville’s secondary. As I mentioned in my Standard Rankings article, Jacksonville’s secondary has been dismantled by trades. A.J. Bouye was traded to the Broncos on the cheap, and Jalen Ramsey got what he wanted when he packed his bags for Los Angeles. Even with Bouye in the fold, this is a team that finished 21st in team defense rankings. Rivers couldn’t ask for more in a matchup.
Adding to the delectable defensive matchup, Rivers hasn’t had an offensive line that has afforded him time in the pocket. The Chargers finished dead last in 2019 pass-blocking metrics per Pro Football Focus. With his two favorite targets on the field, his tight end and running backs, providing sturdy safety nets, and an underrated receiving corps, Rivers is poised to feast against Jacksonville. The Colts are going to score early and often against the Jags. Rivers may not put up 30 points, but he’s likely going to give you 20+ fantasy points. That’s not too bad for a quarterback who was virtually free in drafts.
Ben Roethlisberger (My Ranking: QB7)
No one is happier to see Ben Roethlisberger back in action than the Steelers. Last year, their defense nearly led them to the playoffs despite the dumpster fire of Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges. Imagine what the Steelers could have been with a stable, if not great, offense. Watching Pittsburgh last season, you would never believe that they were one year removed from over 5,000 passing yards over 30 passing touchdowns. Neither Rudolph nor Hodges could even scrape together a 72 passer rating. In case you skimmed past that number, an outrageously low bar of 72! With a healthy JuJu Smith Schuster, Ben has a dangerous arsenal of weapons at his disposal. He’s perhaps my favorite of my list of streamers and sleepers
The Steelers Week 1 matchup against the Giants should provide Ben with a nice welcome back cakewalk. This is a defense that allowed an average of 264 yards-per-game through the air. For context, only four teams provided a worse showing in their secondary than the Giants. With Ben showcasing his skill in primetime on Monday night, it’s going to be a bumpy ride for the woeful Giants secondary.
Running Backs
Mark Ingram (My Ranking: RB14)
Hold on J.K. Dobbins, this isn’t your backfield just yet. Last year, Mark Ingram put together a star-caliber season rushing for over 1,000 yards and finding the endzone a whopping 15 times. Although Dobbins threatens more competition than Gus Edwards, this is still largely Ingram’s backfield. Going up against the Browns, Ingram faces a defense who gave up the third-most rushing yards on the season and the fourth-highest rushing touchdowns. Granted, Cleveland’s defense is likely going to look more capable with Myles Garrett returning from his suspension and the addition of rookie Jordan Elliot. The incoming rookie, by the way, scored higher than any other SEC interior rusher in Pro Football Focus’ scoring metrics.
Working in Ingram’s favor is the projected game script for this showdown. Cleveland’s offense is up against it trying to score Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens have a high probability of dominating the time of possessions. What does that mean in layman’s terms? More plays, more rushing attempts. If that doesn’t say sleepers and streamers, I don’t know what does.
James Conner (My Ranking: RB7)
With the holes in the Giants’ secondary, it’s a relief to fans that their defensive line is a team strength.
Okay, you didn’t believe me, did you?
Aside from the hype surrounding Tomlin’s declarations of James Conner being their bell-cow back, New York’s rushing defense offers a portrait of glitter and glam for the finally healthy ball-carrier. Sure, the Giants have a solid group of guys, but they lack a dynamic playmaking presence. New York didn’t quite finish in the bottom 10 amongst run defenses (they missed the cut by a single, measly spot), but their lackluster unit will suffer from their offense not being able to move the ball against Pittsburgh’s vaunted defense. A tired defense equals running lanes large enough for an 18-wheeler to drive through.
Prior to last season, Mike Tomlin’s offense hasn’t produced less than a top-10 fantasy running since 2013. Tomlin’s offensive gameplan involves giving his leading guy all the work he can handle. Pittsburgh is going to have the ball for the majority of the game, and like Ingram, Conner is going to benefit from the sheer time of possession.
Wide Receivers
T.Y. Hilton (My Ranking: WR14)
Let’s recite our mantra together: “Jacksonville has no defense.” Good, very good.
T.Y. Hilton is going to lineup against a combination of Jacksonville’s rookie C.J. Henderson and the mediocre Tre Herndon. Last year, Tre Herndon allowed a solid 48% reception rate, but this was inflated by games against the Jets, Panthers, as well as the struggling Chargers. He also allowed 643 yards and 17.4 yards-per-reception. Do you remember what T.Y. Hilton’s specialty is? Gashing defenses over the top.
In his seven-year career, Hilton has averaged more than 16 yards-per-reception four times. Last year may have seen a similar outcome if not for the pedestrian play of Jacoby Brissett. Not only does he possess the talent to blow past Herndon, not having a preseason is detrimental to incoming rookies. Henderson is going to be welcomed into the NFL in a not so friendly manner. If you need any more convincing, scroll back up, and read more about Philip Rivers, please.
Stefon Diggs (My Ranking: WR12)
Part of playing fantasy revolves around favoring players with a weekly matchup despite fading them in the preseason. Stefon Diggs provides such an example.
I’ve been down on Diggs ever since the news of transition arrival to Buffalo. I mean let’s face it, he’s playing with the inaccurate and low-volume passer, Josh Allen. Among quarterbacks who played all 16 games, Allen finished last in passing attempts. Now, with a crowded receiving corps composed of Diggs, Josh Allen, and Cole Beasley, it’s difficult to feel confident about Diggs’ target totals moving forward.
Still, playing the Jets makes one do crazy things.
Now that Jamaal Adams escaped his own personal hell in New York, the Jets lack a star presence in their secondary. Compiled mostly of subpar veterans looking to prove themselves, the Jets passing defense is in big trouble this season. Their one potential bright spot is their rookie, Bryce Hall. Their fifth-round pick, Hall, became a huge value that late in the draft. Among a group of amateurs, Hall has an opportunity to step up and earn a starting gig. Regardless, the Jets are in a precarious situation, and Diggs being the talented receiver that he is, is going to feast on his lackluster competition.
Tight Ends
Jack Doyle (My Ranking: TE11)
Okay, this is the last Colt I’ll discuss. I promise you.
To my defense, how can one not discuss a tight end’s fantasy value when Philip Rivers is peppering him with targets?
As I mentioned earlier this offseason in my late-round tight end article, Player Profiler reported that Doyle finished fourth among tight ends in separation metrics at 1.9 yards last season. In fairness, one could ask what this stat even means against a porous secondary like Jacksonville’s.
Last season, Jacksonville was middle of the road against tight ends in terms of fantasy. However, their losses on defense are likely going to drive that finish down. Keep in mind, they played the Texans, Titans, Jaguars, and the Brissett led Colts twice last year. What I’m getting at is there wasn’t much happening in the way of tight ends. Doyle’s knack for getting open and Rivers’ habit of locking on to his tight ends are simply a match made in heaven. What more can you ask for in the world of streamers and sleepers?
Dallas Goedert (My Ranking: TE 18)
Hear me out, this sleeper is on the deeper side. My ranking of Dallas Goedert doesn’t quite do his potential justice, and I may have to move him slightly up prior to tomorrow’s game. Last season, once Alshon Jeffery started missing time, Goedert saw his underwhelming four targets-per-game stat jump up to nearly seven targets-per-game. In the stretch of his increased involvement from Week 11-17, Goedert was the TE9 in half-point PPR leagues.
Well, I’ve got some news guys. Once again, the Eagles wide receiving corps is decimated, and against the fourth-worst defense against tight ends last season, Goedert becomes an intriguing tight end play.
The Washington Football Team allowed nearly 900 yards, as well as nine touchdowns, against tight ends last year. Funny enough, one of their worst games was against the Eagles in the stretch of Goedert’s impressive play. They allowed the Ertz/Goedert tandem to put up 116 total yards and one touchdown. Washington’s secondary is going to be pitiful this season, and with Goedert expected to see targets, you may want to scoop him off your waiver wire and get him in your lineup.
If you enjoyed my Week 1 Streamers And Sleepers, be sure to check out my Week 1 Standard Scoring Rankings only on Fantrax!
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