Fantasy Football: August ADP Risers and Fallers

We made it, y’all! The calendar is about to turn to September, despite what weather patterns might suggest. Labor Day Weekend is on the horizon, followed closely by Week 1 of the NFL season! Now that preseason games are mercifully in the rearview mirror and NFL rosters have mostly been finalized, many fantasy football managers will wait until this week to round out their draft portfolio. Some will wait until now to draft at all. This is the time of year when friends and family I haven’t spoken to in weeks will suddenly hit me up to “see how I’m doing”. These conversations invariably lead to them asking me for sleepers for their upcoming drafts relative to ADP. I wouldn’t have it any other way, but a lot has changed throughout the summer. Many of these changes are reflected in recent ADP data.

I have already attempted to explain why you should not rely too much on ADP. However, I know plenty of people will still use ADP as their baseline for their draft prep. To those people, I would like to make the following plea. If you are going to use ADP as a crutch, at least use the most recent figures. For example, if you look at our ADP data, you will see Dameon Pierce check in at pick number 133 overall. If you conduct a draft this week and Pierce slides to pick 133, I demand you invite me into your league next season.

With that in mind, here are some players who have seen the biggest jumps in ADP in recent weeks. ADP data is courtesy of NFFC. According to their data, there were 376 drafts conducted between May and July. Another 597 have taken place so far in August. That should give us a pretty good idea of players who are on the move, for better or worse. I am limiting this exercise to players who have been selected in at least 10 percent of August drafts. That should eliminate some random late-round fliers whose ADP may be skewed by a small percentage of rogue drafters. I am also removing kickers and D/ST from the equation. You should wait until the last few rounds before drafting these positions.

One final note. Because overall ADP data is influenced by kickers, D/ST, and other shenanigans, I think it is more useful to compare players versus others at their respective positions. If I tell you that Davis Mills had an overall ADP of 195 from May through July and that his August ADP is 222, you may think there is a reason for the drop. But his positional ADP remained the same in both sample sizes. The overall dip is essentially just noise and can be ignored.

August ADP Risers and Fallers

August ADP Risers – Quarterbacks

Player	Team	May-July Pos Rank	Aug Pos Rank	Difference
Geno Smith	SEA	42	37	5
Jared Goff	DET	26	23	3
Jacoby Brissett	CLE	37	34	3
Teddy Bridgewater	MIA	44	41	3
Russell Wilson	DEN	10	8	2
Trey Lance	SF	13	11	2
Mac Jones	NE	24	22	2
Baker Mayfield	CAR	29	27	2
Case Keenum	BUF	40	38	2
Jordan Love	GB	41	39	2

Seattle head coach Pete Carroll named Geno Smith the team’s starting quarterback. Cleveland will go with Jacoby Brissett to start the first 11 games of the season. That would explain their slight ADP bump. However, neither should be a factor outside of SuperFlex leagues. They are most likely bottom-five fantasy starters at the quarterback position. Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and Mac Jones moved up a bit, but probably by default more than anything. I think the injury to Zach Wilson and the five extra games added to Deshaun Watson’s suspension are the likely causes. Of course, there is the possibility of a slight Hard Knocks bump in the case of Goff. Fantasy managers are buying into Russell Wilson and Trey Lance more than they were previously, and with good reason. Both have tremendous upside.

August ADP Fallers – Quarterbacks

Player	Team	May-July Pos Rank	Aug Pos Rank	Difference
Deshaun Watson	CLE	20	25	-5
Joe Flacco	NYJ	35	40	-5
Tyrod Taylor	NYG	39	44	-5
Zach Wilson	NYJ	25	29	-4
Sam Darnold	CAR	38	42	-4
Tom Brady	TB	8	10	-2
Tyler Huntley	BAL	45	47	-2

Deshaun Watson will now miss most of the year due to suspension. The NFL increased his suspension from six to 11 games earlier this month. From a fantasy perspective, he may be worth a stash for the fantasy playoffs depending on your roster construction. Zach Wilson’s ADP dropped in August due to a knee injury suffered in the Jets’ first preseason game. He will most likely miss the season opener against the Baltimore Ravens. The Joe Flacco dip is a bit perplexing, especially considering Zach Wilson’s injury. Flacco is at least expected to start Week 1, which was not the case a month ago. Tom Brady’s seemingly random absence from camp earlier in the month may be the cause of his slight ADP dip. Or it could be the result of an increase in managers buying into Russell Wilson and/or Lance as mentioned above.

August ADP Risers – Running Backs

Player	Team	May-July Pos Rank	Aug Pos Rank	Difference
Isiah Pacheco	KC	96	51	45
Zack Moss	BUF	103	78	25
Mike Davis	BAL	95	72	23
Ameer Abdullah	LV	92	73	19
Jaret Patterson	FA	97	86	11
Eno Benjamin	ARZ	73	63	10
Duke Johnson	FA	102	92	10
Dameon Pierce	HOU	43	34	9
Brian Robinson	WAS	57	49	8
Joshua Kelley	LAC	87	79	8
Chase Edmonds	MIA	34	28	6
Jeff Wilson	SF	76	70	6
Ty Chandler	MIN	91	85	6
Mike Boone	DEN	94	88	6
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	35	30	5
Nyheim Hines	IND	45	40	5
Zamir White	LV	60	55	5
Alvin Kamara	NO	14	10	4
Tony Pollard	DAL	31	27	4
Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	48	44	4
Raheem Mostert	MIA	58	54	4
Rex Burkhead	HOU	85	81	4
Giovani Bernard	TB	101	97	4
AJ Dillon	GB	25	22	3
Darrell Henderson	LA	46	43	3
Dontrell Hilliard	TEN	79	76	3

No player has seen a greater rise in his ADP over the past month than Isiah Pacheco of the Kansas City Chiefs. He has been one of the stars of training camp and has made the 53-man roster. Time will tell how much he plays, as three other backs made it through final cuts as well. Dameon Pierce has gone from upside flier to likely Flex play in recent weeks. His ADP over the last week is as RB23. Brian Robinson was in line to see a lot of playing time but was shot over the weekend. His timetable for a return is up in the air at the moment. Chase Edmonds has been a value all summer, but sharp managers are catching on. Nyheim Hines and Rhamondre Stevenson are shaping up to be solid picks, especially in PPR formats.

August ADP Fallers – Running Backs

Player	Team	May-July Pos Rank	Aug Pos Rank	Difference
James White	NE - RET	70	91	-21
Ronald Jones	KC	42	60	-18
Snoop Conner	JAX	83	101	-18
Myles Gaskin	MIA	77	94	-17
Pierre Strong Jr.	NE	89	105	-16
Keaontay Ingram	ARZ	75	89	-14
Travis Homer	SEA	82	95	-13
Anthony McFarland	FA	84	96	-12
Tyler Badie	FA	69	80	-11
Kenyan Drake	BAL	63	71	-8
Isaiah Spiller	LAC	40	47	-7
Gus Edwards	BAL	54	61	-7
Matt Breida	NYG	86	93	-7
DeeJay Dallas	SEA	93	100	-7
Kenneth Walker III	SEA	30	36	-6
Sony Michel	FA	61	66	-5
Samaje Perine	CIN	72	77	-5
Damien Williams	ATL	78	83	-5
Antonio Gibson	WAS	21	25	-4
Damien Harris	NE	27	31	-4
Miles Sanders	PHI	29	33	-4
Darrel Williams	ARZ	53	57	-4
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	71	75	-4
Kyren Williams	LA	80	84	-4
Brandon Bolden	LV	100	104	-4
Javonte Williams	DEN	9	12	-3
Marlon Mack	FA	56	59	-3
Hassan Haskins	TEN	65	68	-3
Chris Evans	CIN	66	69	-3

James White retired, so do not draft him in case you were wondering. Based on that, the dip in Pierre Strong’s ADP may be a bit premature. He made New England’s 53-man roster, albeit as their fourth running back. However, Ty Montgomery suffered an ankle injury on Friday, and Damien Harris is allergic to catching passes. I would not be surprised to see Strong on the field at times in Week 1. Gus Edwards will miss at least the first month, hence his recent decline in ADP. The Ravens also signed Kenyan Drake, which could muddy things. All Seattle running backs not named Rashaad Penny have seen a drop in their ADP. Penny seems to be the clear-cut choice for touches for as long as Ken Walker is sidelined. Antonio Gibson’s ADP may rise in the coming days after news of Robinson’s shooting.

August ADP Risers – Wide Receivers

Player	Team	May-July Pos Rank	Aug Pos Rank	Difference
Lance McCutcheon	LA	N/A	102	30+
Romeo Doubs	GB	97	67	30
Danny Gray	SF	133	103	30
Khalil Shakir	BUF	126	99	27
George Pickens	PIT	72	54	18
Isaiah McKenzie	BUF	88	70	18
Nelson Agholor	NE	122	104	18
Julio Jones	TB	80	65	15
Nico Collins	HOU	76	63	13
KJ Hamler	DEN	91	78	13
Dyami Brown	WAS	125	112	13
Kalif Raymond	DET	118	106	12
Demarcus Robinson	BAL	123	111	12
Wan'Dale Robinson	NYG	83	72	11
Velus Jones	CHI	106	95	11
Randall Cobb	GB	107	97	10
Deonte Harty	NO	115	105	10
Jalen Guyton	LAC	109	100	9
Sterling Shepard	NYG	110	101	9
Allen Lazard	GB	46	38	8
Zay Jones	JAX	94	88	6
Michael Thomas	NO	36	31	5
Jahan Dotson	WAS	60	55	5
Devin Duvernay	BAL	95	90	5
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	98	93	5
Tyquan Thornton	NE	121	116	5
Courtland Sutton	DEN	21	17	4
Gabe Davis	BUF	25	21	4
DJ Chark	DET	61	57	4
Joshua Palmer	LAC	64	60	4
Justyn Ross	KC	112	108	4
Quez Watkins	PHI	127	123	4
Michael Pittman	IND	13	10	3
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	42	39	3
Skyy Moore	KC	49	46	3

The top five risers in wide receiver ADP are all rookies. That is not much of a surprise, especially with how quickly wideouts are becoming acclimated to the NFL game. I would not be shocked if one or two of these players made an impact sooner rather than later. The rise of KJ Hamler is a direct result of the season-ending injury suffered by Tim Patrick. It feels weird that no Green Bay Packer receiver is being drafted among the top 25 wideouts considering how good Aaron Rodgers is. Perhaps that explains the recent rise in ADP among several of their receivers. The same can be said of the Kansas City wideouts. Fantasy managers have anointed Skyy Moore as the second-best wideout behind Juju Smith-Schuster. There is huge upside here, especially with just five wide receivers making the 53-man roster.

August ADP Fallers – Wide Receivers

Player	Team	May-July Pos Rank	Aug Pos Rank	Difference
James Washington	DAL	86	127	-41
John Metchie	HOU	89	124	-35
Tutu Atwell	LA	108	128	-20
Mack Hollins	LV	102	119	-17
Jamison Crowder	BUF	65	80	-15
Marquez Callaway	NO	100	115	-15
Rashard Higgins	CAR	117	132	-15
Christian Watson	GB	57	69	-12
Russell Gage	TB	38	49	-11
Jameson Williams	DET	63	73	-10
Amari Rodgers	GB	99	109	-10
Braxton Berrios	NYJ	111	121	-10
Van Jefferson	LA	66	75	-9
Kendrick Bourne	NE	74	83	-9
Curtis Samuel	WAS	75	84	-9
Ty Montgomery	NE	101	110	-9
Noah Brown	DAL	104	113	-9
Equanimeous St. Brown	CHI	105	114	-9
Kenny Golladay	NYG	53	61	-8
Corey Davis	NYJ	71	79	-8
William Fuller	FA	77	85	-8
David Bell	CLE	79	86	-7
Amari Cooper	CLE	29	35	-6
Odell Beckham	FA	85	91	-6
Byron Pringle	CHI	90	96	-6
James Proche	BAL	119	125	-6
Jalen Reagor	PHI	120	126	-6
Robbie Anderson	CAR	69	74	-5
Keelan Cole	FA	113	118	-5
Marvin Jones	JAX	73	77	-4
Justin Watson	KC	103	107	-4
Antoine Wesley	ARZ	116	120	-4
Tee Higgins	CIN	10	13	-3
Diontae Johnson	PIT	15	18	-3
Marquise Brown	ARZ	19	22	-3
DK Metcalf	SEA	20	23	-3
Tyler Lockett	SEA	40	43	-3
Treylon Burks	TEN	44	47	-3
Mecole Hardman	KC	59	62	-3
Laviska Shenault	CAR	84	87	-3
Kyle Philips	TEN	114	117	-3
Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	131	134	-3

Russell Gage is the biggest “loser” in terms of August ADP. His perceived value has gone from a weekly Flex play to a borderline top-50 wideout. The primary reason is Tampa Bay’s signing of Julio Jones. I still think Gage will have value, especially given Jones’ recent health history. Detroit placed rookie Jameson Williams on the reserve/NFI list last week. Williams has all of the makings of a future star, but those in redraft leagues may not be able to wait. Kenny Golladay has not looked good, and his effort has been questioned in camp. Amari Cooper’s ceiling is much lower with Jacoby Brissett in line to start 11 games for the Cleveland Browns. The slight decreases in ADP for Tee Higgins, Marquise Brown, DK Metcalf, and Diontae Johnson do not change the landscape much. All should still be started in all formats barring injury until further notice.

August ADP Risers – Tight Ends

Player	Team	May-July Pos Rank	Aug Pos Rank	Difference
Isaiah Likely	BAL	39	29	10
Josiah Deguara	GB	49	43	6
Tyler Conklin	NYJ	36	31	5
Anthony Firkser	FA	44	39	5
Foster Moreau	LV	51	47	4
Tommy Tremble	CAR	50	46	4
Daniel Bellinger	NYG	41	38	3
Greg Dulcich	DEN	43	40	3
Kylen Granson	IND	45	42	3
Jelani Woods	IND	47	44	3
David Njoku	CLE	19	17	2
Brevin Jordan	HOU	27	25	2
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	29	27	2

Isaiah Likely has enjoyed the biggest August ADP rise among all tight ends. He showed out in the preseason, catching all 12 of his targets for 144 yards. The Ravens use plenty of two tight end sets, making Likely an interesting flier in Best Ball leagues. Atlanta cut Anthony Firkser, so you can avoid him for now. As a Jets fan, I can tell you that they targeted Tyler Conklin quite a bit this preseason. We know that Joe Flacco likes to target his tight ends. Where are my Dennis Pitta stans at? David Njoku is one of my favorite late-round tight end picks. I believe his ceiling is higher with Jacoby Brissett in the fold. It is very interesting to see three Colts tight ends make this list. Mo Alie-Cox should get the bulk of the reps and is a solid Best Ball selection as well.

August ADP Fallers – Tight Ends

Player	Team	May-July Pos Rank	Aug Pos Rank	Difference
Ricky Seals-Jones	NYG	37	48	-11
Rob Gronkowski	FA	25	34	-9
Trey McBride	ARZ	33	41	-8
O.J. Howard	FA	42	50	-8
Cade Otton	TB	40	45	-5
Harrison Bryant	CLE	46	49	-3
Dan Arnold	JAX	48	51	-3
Noah Fant	SEA	17	19	-2

Three of the top four fallers in August ADP among tight ends are easy to explain. Ricky Seals-Jones, Rob Gronkowski, and O.J. Howard are currently without an NFL gig. Of the remaining tight ends on this list, only Noah Fant is expected to be a fantasy factor this season. And even that has come into question recently. He has dropped down to TE19 in terms of August ADP, and TE21 in the last seven days. I believe that the drop of some of these tight ends is a bit premature. Trey McBride is behind Zach Ertz on the depth chart but is a snap away from a very fantasy-friendly role. The same can be said for Dan Arnold behind Evan Engram. And Harrison Bryant can be an interesting flier in TD-only leagues. He has scored a touchdown on nine percent of his career targets.