In recent years, more and more fantasy football leagues have adopted a SuperFlex format. There are several reasons for this shift. Scoring fantasy points is fun, and quarterbacks are our game’s highest scorers on average. As the NFL has evolved into a passing league, quarterbacks have benefited more than any other position group. Quarterbacks nowadays are also much more dynamic athletes who can score fantasy points in a variety of ways. Lamar Jackson is one of four players to rush for at least 750 yards in each of the past five seasons. And no NFL player has rushed for more touchdowns over the past three years than Jalen Hurts. In traditional one-quarterback leagues, the contributions of many high-scoring quarterbacks often go unrewarded. Many are on a team’s bench, or even on the waiver wire. But in SuperFlex leagues, most quarterbacks will be in play in a given week.
Switching from a one-QB league to a SuperFlex league does not change how many fantasy points a quarterback will score. However, it will drastically alter how quarterbacks are valued during the draft. The laws of supply and demand are on full display in a 12-team league (not to mention a 15-team league) where each team will usually start two quarterbacks. So, let’s discuss some of the important things to remember when drafting in SuperFlex leagues. I will also be revealing my SuperFlex (2QB) rankings in the coming days to help those who are participating in SuperFlex drafts this year.
Draft Strategy for SuperFlex Leagues
KYS
If you have read any of my previous draft strategy articles over the years, you know that there is nothing I value more when it comes to draft preparation than knowing your league’s specifications and settings. Ideally, you should be able to craft projections based on your league’s scoring system. This will help you see that rankings alone often tell an incomplete story. For example, I ran a set of projections for the 2024 Independence Day Invitational on SiriusXM and found that my QB8 is projected for 18.9 fantasy points per game based on our scoring system. Meanwhile, my QB28 is projected for 16.0 fantasy points per game. The IDI is a one-QB league, but it illustrated to me that if I do not grab a quarterback early, I am probably best served just waiting it out and loading up elsewhere.
Even tiered rankings can be a bit ambiguous without numbers attached. Two of my favorite fantasy football writers, Scott Pianowski and Rich Hribar, both have a Quarterback Tier 1 that includes Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. Those are the top four quarterbacks in my rankings as well, so I will not argue that. Except that when I ran my numbers, I found that I had five quarterbacks (including Mahomes and Jackson) averaging between 19.4 and 20.1 points per game. Even if my numbers end up being off, the question remains – what exactly constitutes a tier break? Is it a half-point difference per game, or a full point? Is it more or less?
I could argue that Allen and Hurts (21.2 and 21.1 fantasy points respectively based on my projections) are in Tier 1, with Mahomes, Jackson, and three others in Tier 2. Or I can claim that the top seven belong in Tier 1. What then about the 21 quarterbacks that I have projected between 16.0 and 18.9 fantasy points? How do we divvy them up by tier? If you have the numbers in front of you, you can make a better assessment. This will help you determine if and when a position truly begins to thin out at a certain point in the draft.
OK, time to get off my high horse and get into some SuperFlex specifics.
Draft Multiple Starting Quarterbacks
Technically, you are not required to start a second quarterback in SuperFlex leagues. However, it is much more likely that your QB2 will be in your SuperFlex spot than a middle-of-the-road running back or wide receiver. Last season, there were 427 instances of a quarterback scoring 10 or more fantasy points in a given game. In PPR formats, 461 instances of a running back reached double figures. And there were 702 games in which a wide receiver scored at least 10 fantasy points. However, these raw totals do not factor in the hit rates for each position group.
There were 272 games played across the NFL last season. Considering each NFL team starts one quarterback, that means there was roughly a 78.5 percent chance of a quarterback scoring at least 10 fantasy points. Let us suppose we credit each NFL team with having two fantasy-viable running backs and three fantasy-viable receivers. Under those parameters, the hit rate of 10-plus fantasy points drops to 42.4 percent for running backs and 43.0 percent for wide receivers. And that includes all of the studs at each position. This means if you are choosing between traditional Flex options, that rate drops precipitously. Additional factors can affect these numbers, such as matchup and player availability. But this shows that the hit rate for a 10-point game from a random borderline Flex player is much lower than for even a below-average NFL quarterback.
Also, keep in mind that the hit rates above are based on PPR scoring. The hit rates would be much lower in Half-PPR and Standard formats. In Standard formats, there were 336 games of 10 or more fantasy points from running backs and 396 for wide receivers. This would reduce the running back hit rate of double-digit fantasy points to 30.9 percent, while the wideout hit rate would drop to 24.3 percent. As a general rule, even a bad starting quarterback is likely going to be a better weekly option than a below-average running back or wide receiver. Because of that, you should draft multiple starting quarterbacks, and ideally three in a 12-team league. This gives you a bit of flexibility in case of injuries or conflicting bye weeks.
Make sense? Good. Because now comes the tricky part.
Do Not Rush to Draft a Quarterback
This may seem counterintuitive based on the need for at least two starters but hear me out. SuperFlex drafts are often a race for each team to draft multiple quarterbacks as soon as possible. But that is not always the most prudent strategy. Going QB-QB in particular can often lead to deficiencies elsewhere. Look no further than last season. Josh Allen led all quarterbacks with 24.2 fantasy points per game, which is great. But 25 other quarterbacks played a minimum of four games and averaged at least 15 fantasy points per game. Any quarterback who is worth his salt is going to score roughly 15 fantasy points in a given week. And just about any quarterback with a pulse (looking at you, Zach Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo) will hit double figures. Now let’s see how that compares with prominent players at other positions.
Last season, Christian McCaffrey led all running backs with 24.5 PPR points per game. Only 13 other running backs averaged at least 15 points per game. In Half-PPR leagues, just five running backs averaged 15 points per game. McCaffrey was one of only three backs who averaged 15 points per game in Standard formats. CeeDee Lamb led the way for wide receivers with 23.7 PPR points per game. Only 17 other wideouts with four or more games played averaged 15 points per game. We often think of PPR as greatly benefiting the wide receiver group, but that usually does not dilute the elite tier. Just five wideouts averaged 15 points per game in Half-PPR leagues, while Lamb and Tyreek Hill were the only wide receivers who averaged 15 points per game in Standard leagues.
What this means (especially in Standard and Half-PPR formats) is that you are better off drafting an elite running back or wide receiver than an elite quarterback. Starting a top-five running back or wide receiver alongside a below-average quarterback in a given week is almost always a better combination than the other way around. So how does this play out during the draft? This is where you need to read the room a bit. I have seen SuperFlex drafts where 15 quarterbacks go in the first two rounds. That can lead to some panic if you have not secured one yet. The good news is that a lot of the non-elite quarterbacks are historically similar. Here is some data from the past 10 seasons, consisting of quarterbacks who have played at least eight games in a given season.
- 2014 – QB7: 17.8 fantasy points per game; QB22: 14.7 fantasy points per game
- 2015 – QB11: 18.3 fantasy points per game; QB23: 16.1 fantasy points per game
- 2016 – QB7: 18.1 fantasy points per game; QB20: 16.0 fantasy points per game
- 2017 – QB6: 17.4 fantasy points per game; QB20: 13.8 fantasy points per game
- 2018 – QB10: 19.4 fantasy points per game; QB20: 17.2 fantasy points per game
- 2019 – QB10: 18.8 fantasy points per game; QB25: 15.6 fantasy points per game
- 2020 – QB12: 18.5 fantasy points per game; QB22: 16.8 fantasy points per game
- 2021 – QB13: 17.8 fantasy points per game; QB27: 13.8 fantasy points per game
- 2022 – QB7: 18.9 fantasy points per game; QB21: 15.2 fantasy points per game
- 2023 – QB5: 19.4 fantasy points per game; QB22: 16.2 fantasy points per game
By and large, a low-end QB1 is not a whole lot different than a low-end weekly QB2. Some will argue that this is the case at other positions as well. However, there is a major difference because the pool of fantasy-viable quarterbacks is not going to change that much throughout the season. Last season, when it seemed like quarterbacks were getting hurt every week, there were a total of 66 quarterbacks who started an NFL game. Assuming all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks were drafted in a SuperFlex league, that means there were roughly two quarterbacks per week available on the waiver wire on average. Meanwhile, every week we see a litany of new running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends become worthy of fantasy consideration.
When to Draft Quarterbacks
To test out the theory that waiting on quarterbacks is the best strategy, I recently participated in three mock drafts. These were 12-team SuperFlex drafts with PPR scoring where I randomly gave myself the 11th pick. In the first draft, I specifically avoided the quarterback position for the first six rounds. Instead, I drafted my surrounding starters, including two running backs, three receivers, and a tight end. Here is what my starting lineup looked like, based on my projected fantasy points per game.
QB: Baker Mayfield (17.3), Geno Smith (16.6)
RB: Kyren Williams (15.0), Travis Etienne (14.5)
WR: Tyreek Hill (19.5), Amon-Ra St. Brown (18.1), Amari Cooper (13.0)
TE: Travis Kelce (13.7)
The projected total of eight starters: 127.7 weekly fantasy points
Here are the results of the second draft, where I made sure to grab quarterbacks in Rounds 1 and 2.
QB: Dak Prescott (19.4), Brock Purdy (18.8)
RB: Saquon Barkley (15.5), Joe Mixon (13.5)
WR: Brandon Aiyuk (14.1), Rashee Rice (12.6), Chris Godwin (12.3)
TE: Kelce (13.7)
The projected total of eight starters: 119.9 weekly fantasy points
Last but not least, here are the results of the third draft. This time around, I decided to split the baby and draft my first two quarterbacks in the third and sixth rounds:
QB: Justin Herbert (18.1), Mayfield (17.3)
RB: Williams (15.0), Rachaad White (14.2)
WR: CeeDee Lamb (20.3), St. Brown (18.1), Calvin Ridley (12.2)
TE: Evan Engram (11.7)
The projected total of eight starters: 126.9 weekly fantasy points.
Keep in mind that in the third draft, I got zero value whatsoever from drafting Mayfield in the sixth round, when I got him in the eighth in the first draft. Had I opted to upgrade my WR3 position in Round 6, I could have probably still gotten Mayfield in the seventh or eighth and added a point or two to my overall projection. Either way, the draft where I secured quarterbacks with my first two picks is easily the weakest among the three. This illustrates my earlier point about having an elite option at wide receiver and/or running back being a much bigger priority.
Of course, the numbers themselves may vary. My projections may be a bit different from yours, or someone else’s. I probably project a higher per-game total for Mayfield than most, for example. But again, there are so many quarterbacks bunched together that even if you replace Mayfield with another low-end QB2, the numbers are going to be roughly the same.
We all know that two fantasy football drafts are alike. Draft slot can play a large role in where fantasy managers pull the trigger on a certain player or position group. With that in mind, I also conducted a separate mock draft where I had the first overall pick. I chose Josh Allen in the first round and Mayfield in the eighth.
QB: Josh Allen (21.2), Mayfield (17.3)
RB: Isiah Pacheco (14.3), White (14.2)
WR: Puka Nacua (16.5), A.J. Brown (16.5), Christian Kirk (12.7)
TE: Trey McBride (12.4)
The projected total of eight starters: 125.2 weekly fantasy points
This build is still a healthy upgrade over the “QB-QB” team while falling shy of both the “wait on QBs at all costs” and “happy medium” builds.
Summary
As with any draft, you should always create some form of projection system based on your league specifications and scoring settings. This will help you visualize the impact of each pick in real-time. When you are on the clock, especially as the draft progresses, panic can lead to bad decisions. This often happens if you are trying to pick based solely on rankings. However, if you can assign a value to each player, you can navigate the draft in a much more calm and efficient manner.
My advice when it comes specifically to SuperFlex drafts is to let the top quarterbacks go off the board and instead focus on securing elite players to fill your other spots. As we get deeper into the player pool, quarterbacks tend to blend together. While we may disagree on which quarterback is the overall QB12 and which is the QB24, the data shows that the point differential between those players is likely to only be a couple of points per week. In contrast, the difference between a running back or wide receiver drafted in the second round and one drafted in the ninth round is likely to be much greater.
You should draft two starting NFL quarterbacks, and preferably three. This goes double if one of your top two quarterbacks is a running quarterback, given the additional injury risk. I don’t even mind drafting a fourth quarterback depending on the circumstances. This can be a low-end starter or speculation pick on a backup. Most starting quarterbacks have a reasonable floor because of their involvement on a play-by-play basis. That cannot always be said for players at other positions. We see examples every week of a running back, wide receiver, or tight end either scoring no points at all or providing just a point or two. Meanwhile, Nick Mullens, Taylor Heinicke, and Easton Stick scored nine or more fantasy points in 13 of 15 combined games played last season.
Now that you have the basics down, best of luck in your SuperFlex drafts!
Got a few nuggets of superflex draft strategy of your own? Drop some knowledge in the comments below and then make sure to check out our 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit for more great rankings and analysis.