Football is here. We waited oh so impatiently, and we finally get to scramble on Sundays to set our Fantasy Football lineups, yell at our TVs, and probably make our wives not super happy. Week 1 of the NFL is always crucial in the Fantasy Football world, as it is the week we start to receive answers to so many of our off-season questions. Week 1 typically will give us an idea of who has what role, how defenses look, how offenses are run, who looks good, and who does not.
We cannot overreact on just one week, but an actual NFL game is the best source to answer our unknowns at this time. Piggybacking off of what was said, with this being the first NFL game, it may be the most difficult time to put together a weekly preview. Looking at what happened last year, how the off-season went, reports and Fantasy analysis can certainly help predict Week 1 but a lot of that is tossing our best throw at the dart board.
The purpose of this series is to break down each NFL matchup for a given week, and then highlight who can thrive in that matchup for Fantasy Football purposes. This can help you with your Fantasy Football Start/Sit decisions, DFS selections, and player prop bets, and give you a general knowledge of what I project to happen for a given week. Each week I will also own my hits and misses at the beginning of the article for transparency. I am hoping the hits for Week 1, bring you back for the rest of the season. Let’s get it!
Fantasy Football Matchup Winners: Week 1
Packers vs. Eagles (Friday Night Football)
Jayden Reed was a pleasant Fantasy Football surprise last season as a second-round rookie for Green Bay, finishing 26th for the position in Fantasy PPG (13.6). Reed tied for the Packers’ lead in targets per game with 5.9 (94 total), led in target share (17.6%), led in receiving yards (793), and led in total touchdowns (10). Reed is the most versatile playmaker on the Packers. Reed for the position finished #21 in deep targets (20), #27 in yards after the catch (335), and #3 in rushing yards (119). Reed is very Deebo Samuel-like for Green Bay in terms of how he can be deployed. Last season the Eagles allowed the second-most passing yards, and most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers.
Saquon Barkley will play his first game as an Eagle, after receiving a three-year $37,750,000 contract this off-season. In a tough matchup, I would expect the Eagles to implement their new playmaker plenty. Barkley has scored double-digit touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, rushed for over 1,300 yards in two seasons, and caught over 50 passes in three seasons. What Christian McCaffrey has been to the 49ers, is what Saquon Barkley will be for the Eagles this season. Last season the Packers allowed the fifth most rushing yards and 12th most Fantasy PPG to running backs. Barkley rushed for 86 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers last season as a Giant.
Steelers vs. Falcons
Pat Freiermuth had a down 2023 due to playing just 12 games, and also with how the Steelers’ offense operated in general. Back in 2022, Muth was a top 12 tight end in Fantasy PPG (9.3) and had a solid season across various categories. In 2022 Muth finished #5 in targets (98), #8 in the average depth of his target (8.7), #3 in deep targets (12), #6 in receptions (63), #6 in receiving yards (732), #9 in yards after catch (286), and #7 in yards per route run (1.86). With Diontae Johnson now in Carolina and George Pickens as the default WR1, I believe Freiermuth can have a very similar role in 2024 that he did in 2022. The Steelers addressed their offensive line via the NFL Draft and added not one but two quarterback upgrades in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields this off-season. Last season the Falcons allowed the 10th most Fantasy PPG to tight ends.
Bijan Robinson finished his rookie campaign in 2023 with 976 rushing yards (#15), 58 receptions (#6), and 487 receiving yards (#4) despite ranking #31 in opportunity share (52.5%) for the year. Bijan averaged 14.5 Fantasy PPG as a rookie but did finish with 17+ Fantasy Points across eight weeks and over 20 Fantasy Points in four. Kirk Cousins paired with a new coaching staff in Atlanta, should mean a more efficient offense in 2024. There have been rumblings that Bijan will continue to have Tyler Allgeier heavily working into the mix or Bijan will operate as “Christian McCaffrey.” Give me Robinson playing a CMC role in 2024, which will lead to a Fantasy breakout. The Steelers were tied for 12th in Fantasy PPG allowed to running backs last season.
Cardinals vs. Bills
James Cook more than doubled his rookie season rushing numbers, totaling 1,122 yards on the ground in 2023 which ranked fourth for the position. Despite catching the 17th most balls for the position with 44, Cook finished eighth in receiving yards with 445. The biggest green flag for Cook was his 5.6 yards per touch in 2023, which ranked fifth for the position. Cook opens up against the Cardinals who gave up the most rushing yards and also the most Fantasy PPG to running backs last season. With the questionable pass-catching core for 2024, leaning on the run in the opener may make a lot of sense for Buffalo.
Titans vs. Bears
While the Bears allowed the least rushing yards per game in 2023, they still managed to give up the ninth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs. I have a feeling the Bears take control of this Week 1 matchup, which could mean an emphasis on the passing game. While Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears both caught over 50 passes last season, I feel Spears will command more work through the air while Pollard is focused on the ground early. Garbage time pass-catching could mean a useful Spears week, who totaled 52 receptions and 385 receiving yards as a rookie on a Titans team that had a healthy Derrick Henry. Spears finished as a top-10 Fantasy running back twice last season as a rookie.
DJ Moore was extended in Chicago this off-season, following the Bears bringing in veteran Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze in the first round. To me, this was a move to make it very clear that DJ is their guy, their WR1. DJM finished 2023 with career-highs in both receptions (96) and receiving yards (1,364), which resulted in also a career-high in Fantasy PPG with 16.9 (#9). The Titans allowed the ninth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers last season, and Week 1 should serve as a great start to the Caleb Williams to DJ Moore connection in a statement game for this revamped Chicago offense.
Patriots vs. Bengals
Ja’Lynn Polk has been a player I have pushed tons of content out on this off-season. The Patriots’ second-round selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, was the first move New England made after selecting Drake Maye in the first round. Polk capped off his college career with a breakout 2023 season for Washington, recording 1,159 receiving yards and nine touchdowns with Rome Odunze on the field with him. Polk can make the big plays, fights for the contested catch, and has the build of a WR1 which are traits I do not think you can find in any other New England wide receiver. In a game where the Patriots’s hand will be forced into the air against the Bengals, look for Polk to see some volume in Week 1. The Bengals allowed the 10th most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the fifth most passing yards last season.
Joe Burrow missed time in 2023, Ja’Marr Chase missed time in 2022, and in 2021 when those two played a full-season together Chase finished with 1,455 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns…as a rookie. In the 38 games played with Burrow, Chase has averaged 87.05 receiving yards, 0.74 receiving touchdowns, and 19.27 Fantasy PPG. I truly think that if this LSU-turned-Cincy QB-WR combo stays healthy this season, Chase can break Fantasy Football. The Patriots can be the start of the fire.
Texans vs. Colts
CJ Stroud threw for 384 and two touchdowns in Week 2 against the Colts last year, and then for 264 and two touchdowns in Week 18 against them. Stroud had an immediate impact on Fantasy Football as a rookie, and his 4,108 passing yards through 15 games speaks to that. The trio of Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and veteran newcomer Stefon Diggs on top of pass-catching veteran newcomer Joe Mixon will lift Stroud’s passing ceiling even higher in 2024. Scoring over 20 Fantasy Points in both weeks against the Colts last year should mean optimism to do the same this year in Stroud’s sophomore campaign.
In Week 2 last season, Zack Moss rushed for 88 yards against the Texans and the Colts totaled three rushing touchdowns. Then in Week 18 against the Texans, Jonathan Taylor rushed for a monster 188 yards and a touchdown to cap off the season. 2023 was a season with a lot of missed time for Taylor, but he did finish with 95 rushing yards in Week 8, 91 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Week 12, 96 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 17, and then that 188 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 18 through 10 appearances. This is the same JT that rushed for 1,811 yards and scored 20 total touchdowns in his last fully healthy season in 2021. Bounce-back season for JT.
Jaguars vs. Dolphins
Playing against the Dolphins typically means attempting to keep up with the Dolphins through the air, which is what Trevor Lawrence may be tasked with in Week 1. The likes of Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are TLaw’s reliable outlets, but I think the Jaguars are going to need some upside in Week 1 against Miami. Insert first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. into the upside role. BTJ capped off his final year at LSU in 2023 with 1,177 receiving yards and a nation-leading 17 receiving touchdowns. Lawrence is coming off of a season where he only tossed 21 touchdowns, so bringing in a guy who has tons of upside in that category seems like a no-brainer move for Jacksonville. Reports have indicated that BTJ is having a monster camp, smoking defenders, and making big plays. Miami allowed the 13th most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers in 2023.
Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards last season with 4,624 passing yards, and the Jaguars allowed the seventh most passing yards last year. There were eight games in which Tua tossed multiple touchdowns last year, and he threw for three or more in four of those. The yards-after-catch abilities of both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, along with their abilities to stretch the field and catch the deep ball, bring a lot of upside to Tua’s numbers. Tua finished second in yards per attempt last season (8.3), and there are tons of efficiency mixed with explosiveness and upside in this Miami offense. The Jaguars allowed the seventh most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks last season.
Panthers vs. Saints
Taysom Hill rushed nine times for 75 yards against Carolina last season in Week 2 with Alvin Kamara out. Then in Week 14, the Saints bullied the Panthers 28-6 but Kamara managed to rush 12 times for 56 yards and a touchdown, with three receptions that ended up for negative yardage. The Panthers allowed the fifth most Fantasy PPG to running backs last season, which is encouraging for Kamaras who averaged the third most Fantasy PPG in 2023 with 17.9. Kamara’s extreme usage in the passing game last season, averaging 5.8 receptions per game, is something that can continue in 2024 with no added pass-catchers. Opening week could be a splash one for Kamara.
Vikings vs. Giants
Aaron Jones rushed for over 100 yards in his final five appearances as a Green Bay Packer. This off-season, Jones remained in the conference but switched from green and yellow to purple and yellow with the Vikings. The Vikings will be without TJ Hockenson, who is recovering from an ACL and Jordan Addison has been limited in practice with an ankle issue. Sam Darnold is under center, and obviously will be looking for Justin Jefferson plenty but may also look to the playmaking of his dual-threat RB1. Jones caught 59 passes in 2022 after 52 in 2021, and has sound pass-catching qualities that can be very useful to a potentially depleted MIN offense in Week 1. The Giants allowed the eighth most Fantasy PPG to running backs and fourth most rushing yards last season.
The Vikings allowed the sixth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the ninth most passing yards per game last season. For many, this would scream first-round rookie Malik Nabers, but I believe Wan’Dale Robinson could be a sneaky FLEX play this week. Wan’Dale led the Giants’ wide receiver room in targets per game last season, following an ACL tear in his rookie year (2022). Robinson finished four weeks as a top 24 Fantasy wide receiver, and being a year further from injury could be even more of a boost in his production. The Vikings allowed the sixth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the ninth most passing yards last season. Sneaky FLEX play with so much focus on Nabers.
Raiders vs. Chargers
Davante Adams is going to open up with a monster week, which may be part of the Raiders’ plan to show him off for a big trade package later. Adams produced 1,144 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in 2023, but averaged 15.6 Fantasy PPG which was a down year vs being at 19+ the prior three seasons. Gardner Minshew supported Michael Pittman Jr to a WR14 finish in Fantasy PPG last season in Indy, which is encouraging for Adams with Minshew now the Las Vegas starter. The Chargers allowed the third most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the third most passing yards last season. I would not be surprised if Adams is a top-three targeted player this week.
The Chargers backfield has been one of the biggest question marks this off-season with the likes of Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and rookie Kimani Vidal all having a chance to factor in. Gus Edwards seems to be the safest bet early on for LAC, following 810 rushing yards and a big 13 total touchdown season back in Baltimore last year. The Raiders allowed the 10th most Fantasy PPG to running backs last season and the 12th most rushing yards. John Harbaugh is said to be a “ground and pound” sort of coach, so if that is the case Edwards could get plenty of run in this one with the red zone upside.
Broncos vs. Seahawks
Javonte Williams is one of my favorite bounce-back picks for Fantasy Football this year. Williams managed six top 24 finishes and four top 12 finishes for Fantasy Football least season, in a year he was recovering from a 2022 ACL tear. Back in Williams’ rookie season, he finished #22 in Fantasy PPG and totaled 903 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. I think we see the guy we all thought was a future stud in 2024, now that he is further from his big injury. The Seahawks allowed the third most Fantasy PPG to running backs and second most rushing yards last season.
We have all been anticipating a Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Football breakout since he entered the league. He has averaged 13-ish Fantasy PPG the last two seasons, and 2024 could be the time for that breakout. Walker has shown high rushing ability through two seasons, finishing #3 and #10 in evaded tackles. KWIII opened up last season scoring five rushing touchdowns across the first four games, which shows upside in that department as well. The Broncos allowed the second most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the third most rushing yards last season which sets up KWIII to have a huge opening week.
Cowboys vs. Browns
Start your studs in this one – CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Jake Ferguson, and David Njoku. This is a tough matchup, with two of the best defenses in the NFL. I would be paying attention to the volume for Jerome Ford and Jerry Jeudy the most here.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers
All eyes will be on Jayden Daniels, and how he looks in his NFL debut. Many people look at Daniels as the next big running quarterback, and his 1,134 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns at LSU in 2023 back that. This man also passed for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns last season on top of that as well though, so let’s not disrespect him as a total package dual-threat quarterback. Daniels has top 12 Fantasy Football upside in 2024. Last year the Buccaneers allowed the eighth most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and fourth most passing yards.
Mike Evans finished 2023 with 1,255 receiving yards attached to Baker Mayfield, which was his highest yardage total since 2018. Evans scored 13 total touchdowns last season as well and averaged 16.6 Fantasy PPG which ranked #10 for the position. Evans was targeted deep more than any other wide receiver and his 15.9 yards per reception ranked #12. Last season the Commanders allowed the second most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the most passing yards in the NFL. Prime matchup for Evans to pick up where he left off last season with his guy Baker who was brought back to Tampa Bay this off-season.
Rams vs Lions (Sunday Night Football)
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua played 11 full games together in 2023. Kupp out-targeted Puka in 6/11 of those games, and they tied in targets in 2/11. Kupp scored 25 points in 3 of those 11 full appearances. Puka practiced fully on Wednesday after dealing with a knee injury, which has been an issue since August 4th. Many reports on the flipside have indicated that Kupp looks great right now. I truly believe Matthew Stafford will hyper-target both of these guys in 2024, but in Week 1, give me a truly healthy Cooper Kupp. The Lions allowed the fourth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the sixth most passing yards last season. Stafford also threw for 367 in the NFL Wild Card Round loss vs Detroit last season, so expect him to be slinging it against his former team.
Jared Goff threw an extremely efficient 22/27 (81.5%) for 277 yards and a touchdown in the NFL Wildcard Round last season against the Rams. Goff finished the regular season with 4,571 passing yards, which was his highest passing yard total since 2019. 30 passing touchdowns in 2023 was the second-highest touchdown total of Goff’s career. 17.8 Fantasy PPG in 2023 was also the second-highest total in Goff’s career. The Rams allowed the third most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks last season, and are a prime matchup for Goff to capitalize once again on.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and analysis!