Running backs are the most volatile fantasy commodity there is. Consider that Todd Gurley, who was the No. 1 overall pick last season, finished 19th in total fantasy points among running backs. Despite his wildly disappointing season, Gurley actually finished ahead of three other running backs drafted in the top-eight in 2016. What made Gurley’s situation unique was he played in all 16 games in 2016, whereas the other three (Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, and Jamaal Charles) combined for just 11. Therein lies the point. The fantasy running back landscape is chock full of minefields, both injury and otherwise. Because running backs are so vulnerable and production so fluid, the odds of a running back going from zero to hero (or vice versa) are much greater than at any other position.
In a standard Fantrax Classic Draft league with eight bench spots, many fantasy owners will try to draft at least one backup at every position. I do not subscribe to this strategy at all. I would much rather draft a surplus of running backs and wide receivers than take backups at less crucial positions. Of the top 12 running backs in total running back scoring in 2016, half were not even drafted among the top 20 running backs. Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi were two late-round fliers who provided huge production for their owners, while overlooked veterans such as LeGarrette Blount and Frank Gore rewarded their owners as well.
From the Captain Obvious department, opportunity is the most direct route to fantasy success for running backs. There were only 24 running backs in the entire NFL who averaged at least 15 touches per game. Of those, only Rashad Jennings and C.J. Anderson did not finish among the top 24 in total fantasy points. Jennings and Gurley were the only two in the group who averaged fewer than 10 points per game. With so few bell cow running backs in today’s NFL, you want to take running backs who stand in line to get the most opportunities. I can’t pretend to predict which running backs will remain upright all season, but I can attempt to assess which are being drafted outside of where they should be. As is the case throughout this series, ADP information comes to us courtesy of fantasyfootballcalculator.com.
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders – OVERVALUED (10, 2.06)
After a year away from the game, Marshawn Lynch is back in the NFL, as he has joined the Oakland Raiders. It remains to be seen which version of Lynch we are going to get – the version we saw from 2011-2014, where Lynch averaged more than 100 yards from scrimmage per game while amassing a whopping 56 touchdowns in 63 games, or the 2015 version, which saw Lynch limp (quite literally) towards an overall RB56 finish. Most fantasy players seem to believe that Beast Mode is back. I, for one, remain skeptical. I’m concerned about his age and the amount of pounding his body has taken over the years. Perhaps the year off did him some good, but I’m not willing to take that risk in the second round. I believe there are two other reasons Lynch will have a hard time reaching his ADP. Their names are Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. As rookies last season, Richard and Washington acquitted themselves quite well. The duo combined for 958 rushing yards on just 170 carries. They also combined to see 62 receiving targets, a number Lynch has not approached since 2008. Richard was even rated the most elusive halfback in 2016. From 2011-2014, Lynch averaged 18.75 carries per game. I’m just not convinced that Lynch is a 300+ carry running back at this stage of his career. Though I do think Lynch will be a solid fantasy starter, I view him as more of an RB2 than a surefire RB1.
Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints – OVERVALUED (19, 4.04)
Adrian Peterson joins the New Orleans Saints and Sean Payton’s high-powered offense. The future Hall of Famer looks to rebound from a torn meniscus he suffered in 2016 which ended his season after just 37 carries. Peterson has overcome injuries before, and I wouldn’t bet against him doing it again. What I would bet against is him becoming a weekly starter in fantasy. Setting aside concerns about age and/or injury, the biggest deterrent to Peterson’s fantasy prospects is Mark Ingram, who is being undervalued in early drafts. Last season, Ingram finished eleventh in total rushing yards, tenth in total fantasy points, and thirteenth in fantasy points per game among running backs. What’s most impressive is that he did so while finishing outside of the top-20 in touches per game among running backs. It’s not as though Ingram’s emergence as a borderline RB1 was a result of unsustainable volume. Ingram out-touched Tim Hightower 15.7-10.3 on average in 2016. Though Adrian Peterson’s name carries more weight than Hightower’s, I don’t suddenly see that workload changing drastically with Peterson now in the fold in New Orleans. Hightower ended last season as the RB33 in total scoring, so it’s not as if I don’t expect Peterson to be useful at all. I just don’t see him getting enough touches to justify picking him in the fourth round. In fact, I’d reverse the ADP of both Saints running backs. I think it’s far more likely we see Ingram finish as the RB19 and Peterson as the RB29 than the other way around.
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OVERVALUED (20, 4.06)
You know that there is a lack of elite fantasy running backs when Doug Martin is being drafted as a top-20 running back. This is especially true considering that Martin has been suspended for the first three games of the 2017 season for use of performance-enhancing drugs. While it is possible for a running back to miss three games and still be a top-20 running back, it is far from a sure thing. Also, it’s not as if Martin is coming off a good year. He played in only eight games last season and averaged a lowly 2.9 yards per carry. In retrospect, it’s fair to question how legitimate his resurgent 2015 season really was. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is one of the worst in the league, which limits whatever upside Martin may have upon his return. Jacquizz Rodgers figures to be the main running back while Martin undergoes his suspension. During a three-game stretch while Martin was injured last season, Rodgers carried the ball 75 times and averaged 4.3 yards per rush while doing so. However, he promptly got injured in the process, ceding the starting role back to Martin upon the latter’s return. It’s fair to wonder how the backfield carries would have shaken out if Rodgers had been healthy when Martin returned, and I think it’s at least possible that Rodgers can play himself into a timeshare with an impressive September showing. We can all hope that Doug Martin has turned his life around and can regain the form he showed in 2015, but I think the fourth round is way too early given the risks involved.
Eddie Lacy, Seattle Seahawks – OVERVALUED (26, 5.08)
Eddie Lacy looks to rejuvenate his career in Seattle, where he will be part of a three-man rotation that also features Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise. Rawls and Lacy were high fantasy picks last season that did not pan out, as they were both injured early in the year. Lacy is expected by many to get the majority of the early-down work, but I don’t see why this would be the case. When Rawls took over the role of featured back in the Seahawks’ offense for Marshawn Lynch in 2015, he averaged a staggering 5.6 yards per carry. Rawls is familiar with the offense and has proven he can handle the role. Last season was not kind to Rawls. He was not very effective before or after a fibula injury which cost him two months. However, he did post a monster line of 27-161-1 in the Seahawks’ Wild Card victory over Detroit, proving that he still has the tools to be an upper-echelon running back. For his part, Prosise showed explosive playmaking ability in a very small sample size, averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 30 rushing attempts and 12.2 yards per reception on 17 catches. Prosise’s role is arguably the most secure as Seattle’s pass-catching back. Although I’m less bullish on Prosise in standard leagues, I’m just not sure why Eddie Lacy is a fifth-round fantasy pick while Rawls and Prosise are considered bench filler.