Fantasy Football Playoffs Round 1: Matchup Winners

Every week, I do the dirty work for you and dig into every Sunday matchup to determine who is the player from each team to spotlight. This involves looking at Fantasy Points Per Game (PPG) and yardage allowed by defenses, along with looking at player usage and performances. I will always have hits and misses, but I will also always have detailed reasoning behind the points I am making.

Week 14 Hits

Below are some hits that had huge weeks or simply out-produced their expectations in Week 14.

• Drake London – 29.2 Fantasy Points
• Ezekiel Elliott – 27 Fantasy Points
• Breece Hall – 26.6 Fantasy Points
• Justin Fields – 24.7 Fantasy Points
• Joe Mixon – 21.5 Fantasy Points
• Austin Ekeler – 21 Fantasy Points
• Baker Mayfield – 20.1 Fantasy Points
• Isaiah Likely – 19.3 Fantasy Points
• Rashee Rice – 18.2 Fantasy Points
• Travis Etienne Jr. – 17.2 Fantasy Points
• Diontae Johnson – 14.7 Fantasy Points
• Kyren Williams – 14.3 Fantasy Points
• Devin Singletary – 12.5 Fantasy Points

Each week I am accountable within this piece, and highlight the misses. Those players in Week 14 include Jonathan Mingo, Elijah Moore, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Jalen Hurts.

Overall, I feel great about the “hit” to “miss” ratio within these articles this season. Let’s keep it rolling here into the Fantasy Playoffs, where this sort of content is most important. Do or die time for your Fantasy teams. The intent is to help you win your Fantasy Football matchups, and maybe even some DFS cash. Below are my player highlights for Week 15 – let’s get it!

Matchup Winners for Fantasy Football Playoffs Round 1

Thursday Night Football

Chargers vs. Raiders

• Austin Ekeler: The Raiders allow the sixth most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season. Justin Herbert will miss the remainder of the season after injuring his finger in Week 14, which will require surgery. Easton Stick will make his first NFL start at the age of 28. Keenan Allen has been dealing with a heel injury we will have to monitor. A lot is going on with the Chargers right now. Heading into Week 14, there was some coach-speak about changing the usage of the running back room for the Chargers, which resulted in Austin Ekeler playing his second-highest snap percentage of the year at 72% and getting back to normal in the passing game. Ekeler caught five of his seven targets in Week 14 for 49 receiving yards, which added well to his 51 rushing yards and a touchdown for 21 Fantasy Points. Ekeler has finished three weeks with five receptions this season and has finished seasons with 107, 70, 54, and 92 receptions. I expect heavy usage by Ekeler in the passing game with the new situation the Chargers are in, which should translate well in a solid matchup for Fantasy Football.
• Davante Adams: The Chargers allow the fourth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the fourth most passing yards per game this season. Disappointing Fantasy Football season for Davante Adams after ranking fifth in Fantasy PPG in 2022 (19.7) to 20th in 2023 (14.4). Is he not good anymore? No, that is not the case. Has his situation not been ideal? Nope, not even close. Via playerprofiler.com Adams ranks 77th for the position in catchable target rate (66.9%) and #44 in target accuracy. One thing we can count on for Adams, is target volume, as he averages 9.8 per game with six weeks above that. Adams has caught seven passes in two of his last three games and was just the WR8 back in Week 8 with Aidan O’Connell against Miami. Quality wide receiver matchup to me just means feeding the beast and letting him do the rest.

Saturday Slate

Vikings vs. Bengals

• TJ Hockenson: The Bengals allow the most Fantasy PPG to tight ends and the sixth most passing yards per game. After returning from the IR in Week 14, Justin Jefferson left Week 14’s game with a chest injury after playing just 18% of the snaps. Jefferson is questionable for Week 15. Nick Mullens will step in for Joshua Dobbs as the Vikings’ starter in Week 15, who back in 2o20 finished three games with 290+ passing yards for the 49ers. Looking at Mullens’ historical connection to George Kittle back in San Francisco (via statmuse.com), Kittle caught 74 passes for 1,101 yards and scored four touchdowns in 11 games. This feels like a big hint at what can come for TJ Hockenson in the best Fantasy Football tight end matchup.  TJ Hockenson is averaging the second most Fantasy PPG this season (15.2) along with nine targets, 6.5 receptions, and 65.5 receiving yards per game. Hockenson ranks first in target share for the position (25.4%), and has finished four games with double-digit targets. If there is one person to trust on the Vikings this weekend, it is TJ Hockenson for me.
• Tee Higgins: The Vikings allow the 13th most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season. Hot take alert – Tee Higgins bounce-back week. Higgins has scored poorly since his return from injury, with Fantasy scores of 6.6 and 9.2 points the last two weeks, and still not playing the snap percentage (under 80% in both) that we expect. If you roster Tee Higgins for Fantasy Football, that touchdown being called back in Week 14 had to have irked you in the worst way, especially because the flag was on Tee Higgins for the push-off. A positive note was that, although the number was not exciting, Higgins tied Ja’Marr Chase for a team-high four targets in Week 14. Jake Browning is playing much better football, and we have seen the potential of Higgins this season in a few games he was actually healthy. Week 2 Higgins caught eight of his 12 targets for 89 yards and two touchdowns against Baltimore for 28.9 Fantasy Points. In Week 9 against Buffalo Higgins caught eight of his nine targets for 110 yards for 19 Fantasy Points. With Ja’Marr Chase dealing with an ankle injury, Higgins can certainly see a boosted role in Week 154

Steelers vs. Colts

• Najee Harris: The Colts allow the third most Fantasy PPG to running backs and are tied for the sixth most rushing yards per game allowed this season. The Jaylen Warren split has been real this season for Najee, but with Warren totaling 21 touches to Harris’ 33, it feels like the work is shifting. Since the Week 6 BYE, Harris has finished games with 92 and 99 rushing yards, scored four rushing touchdowns, and caught three or more passes four times across eight games. 15 or 16 rushing attempts in four of those mentioned eight games. Knowing it is such a smash matchup for running backs, I have a feeling the Steelers will emphasize the run vs. trying to have Mitch Trubisky win the game for them.
• Zack Moss: The Steelers allow the 13th most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the 12th most rushing yards per game this season. Zack Moss is another bounce-back candidate for the week. Jonathan Taylor remains doubtful for Week 15, and Moss has played 94% and 84% of the snaps in the last two games. Although Moss has played at a workhorse rate the last two weeks, the production has not been there, but the volume has with 21 then 17 touches. You may ask yourself, “If this guy is getting work and not producing then why would we trust him”? The answer – because he HAS produced and produced well for Fantasy Football this season. In Weeks 2, 3, 5, and 6 Moss has finished as a top 10 Fantasy running back, with two of those games finishing as a top-5 Fantasy running back. This has meant scores of 20.7, 22.5, 33.5, and 17.9 Fantasy Points. Moss has rushed for over 120 yards twice and scored six touchdowns on the year this season. The bounce-back gut feeling is there for me.

Broncos vs. Lions

• Russell Wilson: The Lions allow the fourth most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks this season. Russell Wilson has finished as a top 12 Fantasy quarterback five times this season and looks to have taken a big step forward as three of those games were in the last five weeks. Weeks 10-14 Wilson is the QB9 overall for Fantasy Football, averaging 17.1 PPG. Wilson has thrown for a pair of touchdowns in seven games, for over 300 yards twice, and has rushed for 30+ yards seven times. Detroit presents a solid matchup to plug Wilson into lineups.
• Sam LaPorta: The Broncos allow the second most Fantasy PPG to tight ends this season. After Sam LaPorta’s worst Fantasy Football week of the season, he is due for a major bounce-back. Week 13 LaPorta finished as the TE1 for Fantasy Football, which was the second time that happened on the year and the fifth time LaPorta was a top-five Fantasy tight end for a week. LaPorta for the position ranks fourth in targets, receptions, and receiving yards for the year averaging 7.2, 5.1, and 56.6. LaPorta has earned double-digit targets three times and finished games with 84 and 140 receiving yards. LaPorta is the TE3 currently, averaging 13.6 Fantasy Points on the year. Great bounce-back matchup for the rookie.

Sunday Slate

Giants vs. Saints

• Saquon Barkley: The Saints are not a great matchup for Fantasy Football, outside the tight end position, which makes Saquon Barkley feel like the only option to trust. Barkley is coming off of an RB4 Fantasy week, scoring 23.1 Fantasy Points due to 86 yards rushing, two touchdowns, and three receptions. Barkley finished as the RB1 in Week 11, RB9 in Week 7, and RB3 in Week 2 with all of those games over 18 Fantasy Points. 23 touches while playing 86% of the snaps makes it clear Barkley is a true workhorse, who has a resume of Fantasy Football upside. Look for Barkley, who has seven weeks with three or more catches, to stay involved in the passing game this week with the Saints being tough on wide receivers. (30th in PPG allowed).
• Chris Olave: The Giants allow the third most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season. Since the Week 11 BYE Week, Chris Olave has finished two weeks as a Top 20 Fantasy wide receiver scoring 18.4 and 16.9 Fantasy Points in two of the last three games. Olave finished Weeks 12 and 13 with 114 and 119 receiving yards, and have topped over 100 yards four times this year. Big plays are always a possibility with Olave, as evidenced by his ranking #12 in the average depth of his targets (14.1), #1 in air yards (1,563), #1 in deep targets (30), and #16 in yards after the catch (285). The Giants provide a Fantasy-friendly matchup for Olave, who has scored 16+ Fantasy Points in seven games this season. **Olave is currently questionable and that needs monitoring**

Bears vs. Browns

• Justin Fields: The Browns are a terrible Fantasy Football matchup this season, but in Justin Fields we trust. Week 14 was a solid bounce-back performance for Fields, finishing as the QB3 guided by 223 passing yards, a passing touchdown, 58 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown. Last week was a prime example of the high upside Fields brings forth as a dual-threat quarterback. We know the rushing upside is there with Fields leading the league in rushing for the position last year (1,143 yards), but this season we saw two games throwing for four touchdowns a piece with 335 and 282 passing yards in Weeks 4 and 5. Despite missing four full games due to injury, Fields has finished four of his eight full games as a top-eight Fantasy quarterback, with three of those being top-three Fantasy finishes. Floor and ceiling Fantasy Football scoring is different from quarterback to quarterback, so even in a tough matchup, I feel fine playing Fields.
• David Njoku: The Bears allow the seventh most Fantasy PPG to tight ends this season. David Njoku absolutely exploded in Week 14, catching six of his eight targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns which resulted in a TE2 finish with 27.1 Fantasy Points. The Cleveland offense with Joe Flacco has more upside than we all thought. Njoku has quietly been one of the most consistent Fantasy scoring tight ends to roster this season, scoring double-digit Fantasy Points in seven of his last eight games. Njoku has finished seven weeks as a top-12 Fantasy tight end and ranks eight in PPG this season (10.9). I would feel very comfortable plugging Njoku into lineups this week against the Bears.

Falcons vs. Panthers

• Bijan Robinson: The Panthers allow the fourth most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the 11th most rushing yards per game this season. Week 1 against the Panthers, Tyler Allgeier rushed for 75 yards and scored two touchdowns. In that same game, Bijan Robinson rushed for 56 yards and caught six passes with one resulting in a touchdown. The Falcons duo tore up the Panthers, which has been a theme this season. Bijan has grown more and more into a workhorse role, playing 75% then 78% of the snap the last two games 21 and 15 touches. The Falcons want to win out, so featuring their best player makes sense. Robinson has finished five weeks as a Top 12 running back, with two of those games being across the last three games. Smash matchup for the rookie.
• Chuba Hubbard: The Falcons are not the best running back matchup, but it is hard to trust their offense through the air and the Panthers run game was successful Week 1 against the Falcons. In Week 1 Miles Sanders rushed 18 times for 72 yards and caught four passes while Chuba Hubbard rushed nine times for 60 yards and caught two passes. That is 132 combined rushing yards and six passes caught by the Panthers’ duo against the Falcons in Week 1. Roles have shifted in Carolina across the last handful of weeks, with Chuba not only taking over as the lead back but truly operating as a workhorse. Hubbard is coming off of playing a season-high 78% of the snaps and has finished with 25 touches in back-to-back weeks. In Weeks 12 and 13 Hubbard finished with 20.2 and 22.4 Fantasy Points.

Buccaneers vs. Packers

• Rachaad White: The Packers allow the ninth most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the second most rushing yards per game this season. Rachaad White has finished as a top 10 Fantasy running back in back-to-back weeks and as a top 12 Fantasy running back seven times this season. White has been extremely consistent following the Week 5 BYE when it comes to Fantasy scoring, with six of his nine games played scoring 17.8+ Fantasy Points. The pass-catching upside was evident from his rookie season last year and carried over to this year with White catching 50 passes in 2022 and 48 so far in 2023. What has really been significant is the development through this season as a runner. White rushed for under 60 yards in eight of his first 10 games but has rushed for 100, 84, and 102 in Weeks 12-14. Pass-catching running back that is trending up on the ground in a smash running back matchup sounds like a good Week 15 play to me.
• Jordan Love: The Buccaneers allow the fifth most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and the third most passing yards per game this season. Jordan Love had a down Week 14 but went four straight games Weeks 10-13 finishing inside the top 12 Fantasy quarterbacks. Love has finished inside the top 12 eight times this season in total for Fantasy scoring. Four weeks ranging from 267-322 passing yards and four weeks of passing three touchdowns shows some upside for Love through the air. Part of that touchdown upside is Love ranking third in red zone attempts (71), which means he has solid opportunities this season in that area of the field. Great matchup in Week 15 for Love to be in your lineup.

Jets vs. Dolphins

• Raheem Mostert: The Jets allow the 10th most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the fifth most rushing yards per game this season. Everyone loves the rookie De’Von Achane, but Raheem Mostert has had such a great season as a whole. Achane has actually not been practicing, which could mean a bump in Mostert’s touches. Mostert rushed 20 times for 94 yards and two touchdowns in the first matchup against the Jets, as the RB8 that week with 21.4 Fantasy Points. Even with Achane back in action, Mostert played 64% of the snaps in  Week 14, rushing 21 times for 96 yards and two touchdowns as the RB5 for the week with 23 Fantasy Points. Mostert has rushed for over 80 yards in seven games this season and ranks second for the position on total touchdowns with 16. If I am picking a Miami running back this week, it is Mostert, who should be an automatic start as is.
• Garrett Wilson: The Dolphins are middle of the pack against wide receivers, allowing the 14th most Fantasy PPG to the position. Garrett Wilson is coming off of his best Fantasy week of the season, catching nine of his 14 targets for 108 yards and scoring 20.1 Fantasy Points. It was encouraging to see Zach Wilson put in a good Week 14. In Week 12 against Miami in this first matchup, Wilson caught seven of his 10 targets but for just 44 yards, which meant 17.4 Fantasy Points. Despite a season tied to mediocre quarterback play, Wilson has ranked third in total targets with 134, which is 10 per game. Heavy target volume helps Wilson’s floor and gives him opportunities to make something out of (almost) nothing. Hoping Week 15 was a sign for Wilson to stay hot heading into the Fantasy Playoffs.

Chiefs vs. Patriots

• Rashee Rice: The Patriots allow the 11th most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season. 2nd-round rookie Rashee Rice has been on fire the last three weeks, with scores of 24.7, 14.4, and 18.2 Fantasy Points during this span as Patrick Mahomes’ number-one target. Across these three games, Rice has earned 10, nine, and 10 Fantasy Points and totaled 107, 64, and 72 receiving yards. Rice ranks second on the Chiefs in targets, receptions and receiving yards and now leads the team in receiving touchdowns. This is a very good thing to hear, when you are attached to Patrick Mahomes. The Patriots are a solid matchup for Rice too keep cooking in Week 15.
• Ezekiel Elliott: The Chiefs are not a plus matchup for any specific position, but after Ezekiel Elliott’s usage and production in Week 14 he should stay in lineups while Rhamondre Stevenson is out. Zeke rushed 22 times for 68 yards and caught seven passes for 72 yards and a score in Week 14 for 27 Fantasy Points as the RB1 for the week. 29 touches is significant, and Zeke should again be lined up to touch the ball plenty which is what we seek from our Fantasy running backs.

Texans vs. Titans

• Noah Brown: The Titans allow the eighth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the 11th most passing yards per game this season. SLEEPER ALERT – Noah Brown in Week 15. CJ Stroud will miss this week, which means Davis Mills will take the lead role who has had plenty of starts for Houston in the past. The same can be said about Nico Collins, who missed Wednesday’s practice due to the calf injury that made him exit Week 14’s game. Tank Dell’s season ended due to injury already as well. Opportunity is key for Fantasy Football, and Noah Brown has just that in Week 15. Back-to-back weeks with a goose egg for Fantasy scoring is definitely concerning, but Brown played 81%/56% of the snaps in those games after missing two games due to injury and is coming off of being targeted five times last week. If we flash back to Weeks 9 and 10, we saw a ton of upside out of Brown. Brown caught all six targets in Week 9 for 153 receiving yards and a touchdown which meant 25.9 Fantasy Points. In Week 10, Brown followed that big game up with another big game catching seven of his eight targets for 172 receiving yards for 24.2 Fantasy Points. We like upside in Fantasy Football, and as stated already opportunity is key, so tie these two together and that is Noah Brown in Week 15. **currently questionable**
•  Tyjae Spears: The Texans are middle of the table for Fantasy PPG allowed to running backs this season ranking 15th, but we have to talk about the rookie Tyjae Spears. Desperate times call for desperate plays in Fantasy Football, and at this point of the year there are going to be plenty of teams who are lacking running back depth due to injuries and role changes. Very positive signs for Spears in the last two games even with a healthy Derrick Henry. Season-high 75 rushing yards in Week 13 with four receptions for 13.3 Fantasy Points. Then in Week 14 Spears caught a season-high six receptions on a season-high eight targets for a season-high 89 receiving yards. 67% (Derrick Henry left the game) then 66% of the snaps the last two games, and Spears has played above 50% of the snaps in nine total weeks this season. It is clear that the Titans want to keep their rookie involved, as evidenced by his pass-catching role with 33 catches on the year. If you need a guy to plug in, Spears may be a decent option if he continues this hot trend for Fantasy Football.

49ers vs. Cardinals

• Brock Purdy: The Cardinals allow the 10th most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks this season. In Week 4 against the Cardinals in this first matchup, Brock Purdy finished the game throwing 20/21 for 283 yards and a touchdown and also rushed for a touchdown. Purdy scored 21.3 Fantasy Points against Arizona that week as the QB11 for Fantasy Football. Purdy has been on fire since the Week 9 BYE, finishing as the QB6, QB2, QB23, QB2 and QB6 during this span. Within this five-game stretch, Purdy has completed above 70% of his passing attempts in all of them, thrown for 314+ passing yards in three games, and finished three of those weeks with three or four passing touchdowns. We have a quarterback on fire who already smoked the Cardinals this season.
• Michael Wilson: The 49ers allow the 10th most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season. Marquise Brown did not practice on Wednesday due to the health issue he has been dealing with. Rookie Michael Wilson on the other hand, returned to practice after missing the last three games due to injury. In Week 4 against the 49ers, Wilson caught all seven passes for 76 yards and scored two touchdowns which resulted in a WR6 finish with 26.6 Fantasy Points. Another sleeper of mine this week due to the previous matchup and opportunity.

Commanders vs. Rams

• Sam Howell: The Rams allow the seventh most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and 13th most passing yards per game this season. Sam Howell has been one of the biggest surprises of the season this year, currently ranking fifth in passing yards (3,466) and sixth in total Fantasy Points on the season. Howell has finished six straight weeks as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback and has had many flashes of statistical upside. Five games of 300+ passing yards, five weeks of multiple passing touchdowns, and five rushing touchdowns. Howell should be in your lineup if you roster him.
• Matthew Stafford: The Commanders allow the second most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and the most passing yards per game this season. Matthew Stafford has been on a hot streak in the last three games for Fantasy Football, finishing with 24.4 Fantasy Points (QB7), 23 Fantasy Points (QB8), and 23.7 Fantasy Points (QB5). Health is always key, and both Stafford and his two stud weapons in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are all healthy. Stafford is averaging 35 passing attempts per game, which is quality volume on the year. Three games over 300 passing yards this season and 10 touchdowns thrown across the last three weeks show upside through the air. Stafford is not hyped up enough right now and should be as he is heading for his fourth consecutive top 10 week in a row for Week 15.

Cowboys vs. Bills

• Dak Prescott: The Bills are not necessarily a plus matchup for any position, but we have to talk Dak Prescott who has been playing like this year’s MVP. Prescott had a down week in Week 14 but at a still useful 17.9 Fantasy Points. Prescott has finished as a top-three quarterback in six games this season, which shows plenty of Fantasy upside for the position. Prescott ranks sixth in passing attempts (34.6 per game), first in red zone attempts (7.1 per game), third in passing yards (269.6 per game), fourth in yards per attempt (7.8), #1 in passing touchdowns (28), second in QBR (73.9) and third in Fantasy PPG (21.4). A battle of two solid offenses in Week 15 will mean high demand for Dak this week.
• Josh Allen: The Cowboys are a tough matchup for Fantasy Football, but with Dak Prescott hot this season the Bills will need Josh Allen to match that and better in Week 15. Allen currently ranks third in passing attempts (36.5 per game), sixth in passing yards (265.2 per game), second in passing touchdowns (25), fifth in rushing yards (374), and 1st in Fantasy PPG (24.7). Via statmuse.com, Josh Allen has a passer rating of 120.7 with 231 yards and a touchdown in his lone game against the Cowboys from back in 2019.

Ravens vs. Jaguars

• Zay Flowers: The Jaguars allow the seventh most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the second most passing yards per game this season. In the two games without Mark Andrews who is out for the season, Flowers has finished as the WR6 then WR8 for Fantasy Football with 23.2 and 20 Fantasy Points. Back-to-back games played with 20+ Fantasy Points is encouraging for the first-round rookie, who had weeks of 17.7 and 17.1 points in games prior but was inconsistent with his fantasy production. 18 targets from Lamar Jackson in the last two games played is quality volume, and I expect that to be sticky for the rest of the season as the number one target in this offense. The Jaguars are a great matchup to stay hot.
• Travis Etienne Jr.: The Ravens are a tough matchup for Fantasy Football, so if I am going to pick one Jaguar to trust this week it will be Travis Etienne Jr. Etienne currently ranks third in carries (219), seventh in targets (56), fifth in rushing yards (806), seventh in receptions (44), sixth in receiving yards (383), third in total touchdowns (10) and fifth in Fantasy PPG (17.5). Great year for Etienne, who has operated as a true workhorse this season.

Monday Night Football Quick Hitters

Eagles vs. Seahawks

• D’Andre Swift has a plus matchup against the Seahawks, who allow the fifth most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the 10th most rushing yards per game.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has led Seattle in targets in back-to-back weeks and faces an Eagles defense that allows the most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the fifth most passing yards per game this season. One of my favorite sleeper picks of the week.

Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty